Tropical cyclone 09s

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

22/0830 UTC 13.9S 56.5E T1.0/1.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean



Looking good this morning. I think it has a very good chance of becoming our next cyclone.

[WindRunner]

Matt, don't ever say "looking good" about a storm around here and don't post a picture. That's just cruel. Anyway, it is looking pretty good.

[WindRunner]

Or a better picture yet.



And someone else will have to find the outlook on the La Reunion site, I don't really understand French enough to work it

[P.K.]

And someone else will have to find the outlook on the La Reunion site, I don't really understand French enough to work it

Nothing on there yet.

[JonathanBelles]

And someone else will have to find the outlook on the La Reunion site, I don't really understand French enough to work it

Nothing on there yet.

if u kno spanish, french and spanich are very similar

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

d= low pressure and A= high pressure?

[WindRunner]

d= low pressure and A= high pressure?

In French, yes.

[JonathanBelles]

ok

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow it looks very good right now. A nice tight LLC with convection over it. With inlflow moving into the system. This is a cyclone already....(NOT OFFICALLY YET!)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

23/0230 UTC 15.4S 55.6E T1.5/1.5 96S -- South Indian Ocean

[Meso]

Will be watching this... It's about the closest I get to Cyclones (+3000 km away) :p Living at the bottom of South Africa and all.

[HURAKAN]

Will be watching this... It's about the closest I get to Cyclones (+3000 km away) :p Living at the bottom of South Africa and all.

Has there ever been a TC landfall in South Africa?

[Coredesat]

[Coredesat]

WWIO21 KNES 231510
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MTSAT IRNIGHT
.
JANUARY 23 2006 1430Z
.
16.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS 96S
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.4S 55.6E 23/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
14.3S 56.1E 22/1430Z IRNIGHT
ADD. POSITIONS...16.0S 54.8E 23/0939Z AMSRE 89
.
REMARKS...AMSRE PASS SHOWS NICE LLC NEAR THE NE EDGE OF
CONVECTION. SLOW PROGRESSION DUE SOUTH LEAVES CENTER VERY
NEAR CONVECTION FOR A SHEAR DT OF 3.0. HOWEVER... THE
CONVECTION CLUSTER IS SMALL AND ONLY BANDS .35 BASED ON
CURRENT LOCATION FOR A DT OF 2.5. PT IS MORE LIKE A
DEPRESSION SO PT IS 2.0. MET IS 2.5. FT IS 2.0 BASED ON PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 23/2200Z.

[HURAKAN]

23/1430 UTC 16.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean


GETTING BETTER!

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S 54.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. A 231128Z AMSU-B
SATELLITE PASS REVEALED THE AREA OF CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM 231200Z INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES RANGING BETWEEN 1009 MB AND
1011 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. GIVEN THE LIMITED EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND THE STILL ORGANIZING
CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[JonathanBelles]

23/1430 UTC 16.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean


GETTING BETTER!

what is that that u highlighted?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Can't believe france has not jumped on it yet. That looks very very good.