Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Ivanhater]

BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

I don't see what's so shocking about that... we've been really warm ever since, so that's not saying much.

seriously

[Extremeweatherguy]

BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

I don't see what's so shocking about that... we've been really warm ever since, so that's not saying much.

The coldest so far here in Houston was a high of 36/37 and a low in the 20s...a repeat of that or a colder scenario is COLD by my standards and cold enough for wintry weather too..which is kind of exciting. I think it is saying a lot....I mean to go from record warmth to the COLDEST air of the season seems kind of big to me.

[jasons2k]

It looks like the airmass is going to come through dry, so I wouldn't expect any threat for winter precip here in Houston.

It's too early to know how low we'll bottom-out since we're talking about next weekend, but I am getting concerned we may get a hard freeze out of this. I know most of you will be dancing in the streets but for me it just plain stinks. What a waste. If I'm gonna have to re-do my whole yard at least give me a snowman.

I hate winter. The older I get the more I hate the cold too (and I'm only 32). Maybe I should just move back to Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the airmass is going to come through dry, so I wouldn't expect any threat for winter precip here in Houston.

It's too early to know how low we'll bottom-out since we're talking about next weekend, but I am getting concerned we may get a hard freeze out of this. I know most of you will be dancing in the streets but for me it just plain stinks. What a waste. If I'm gonna have to re-do my whole yard at least give me a snowman.

I hate winter. The older I get the more I hate the cold too (and I'm only 32). Maybe I should just move back to Florida.

yeah moisture will be limited, but the 12Z GFS DOES show a little moisture to work with..which may equate out to a 20-40% chance of wintry weather...but also, who knows? with it being a week out..may be we will get a little more moisture than expected now. Lets hope so, because I do not like it cold only either...I like it mixed with a little winter weather too.

[jasons2k]

BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

I don't see what's so shocking about that... we've been really warm ever since, so that's not saying much.

The coldest so far here in Houston was a high of 36/37 and a low in the 20s...a repeat of that or a colder scenario is COLD by my standards and cold enough for wintry weather too..which is kind of exciting. I think it is saying a lot....I mean to go from record warmth to the COLDEST air of the season seems kind of big to me.

Sometimes you read too much into things. The coldest SINCE December is not the same thing as the coldest all season.

The coldest day we've had since then was 56 (for a high). Beating that wouldn't be anything special.

Furthermore, we haven't had any 20's yet this season. The lowest so far officially has been 31 on 12/8.

I'm really not trying to be rude, but this twisting words into saying something you want is really getting a bit old. Just take it for what it says, geez.

[jasons2k]

It looks like the airmass is going to come through dry, so I wouldn't expect any threat for winter precip here in Houston.

It's too early to know how low we'll bottom-out since we're talking about next weekend, but I am getting concerned we may get a hard freeze out of this. I know most of you will be dancing in the streets but for me it just plain stinks. What a waste. If I'm gonna have to re-do my whole yard at least give me a snowman.

I hate winter. The older I get the more I hate the cold too (and I'm only 32). Maybe I should just move back to Florida.

yeah moisture will be limited, but the 12Z GFS DOES show a little moisture to work with..which may equate out to a 20-40% chance of wintry weather...but also, who knows? with it being a week out..may be we will get a little more moisture than expected now. Lets hope so, because I do not like it cold only either...I like it mixed with a little winter weather too.

Read the NWS Discussion from Corpus.......not enough moisture with 3 fronts going through this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

I don't see what's so shocking about that... we've been really warm ever since, so that's not saying much.

The coldest so far here in Houston was a high of 36/37 and a low in the 20s...a repeat of that or a colder scenario is COLD by my standards and cold enough for wintry weather too..which is kind of exciting. I think it is saying a lot....I mean to go from record warmth to the COLDEST air of the season seems kind of big to me.

Sometimes you read too much into things. The coldest SINCE December is not the same thing as the coldest all season.

The coldest day we've had since then was 56 (for a high). Beating that wouldn't be anything special.

Furthermore, we haven't had any 20's yet this season. The lowest so far officially has been 31 on 12/8.

I'm really not trying to be rude, but this twisting words into saying something you want is really getting a bit old. Just take it for what it says, geez.

Tomball has had 20s (down to 27F)...sorry I should be more specific..THAT was who I was referring to. Also, if you read the shrevport, LA discussion which includes areas like Lufkin, they are saying "coldest all winter"...that would translate into 36/37 or below if the same was true for Houston. Also...when Dallas says SINCE Early December...they are likely reffering to that cold spell we got during early December. Also...the coldest we have had since early December was 40s for highs in mid December...for instance the period of Dec. 16th and 17th stayed below 50 at Tomball...with highs of 49F and 48F (which is lower than the 56 you came up with)...and at IAH it was 50F and 48F on those days.

[Tyler]

Guys, the GFS is always progressive in the long range, I think we'll get more than just a "glancing blow". Lows in the low 20's, and highs in the 40's seem a good bet RIGHT NOW... I like the way the ECMWF is handling this...

Bottom line, the arctic air is coming, and it will shock the nation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys, the GFS is always progressive in the long range, I think we'll get more than just a "glancing blow". Lows in the low 20's, and highs in the 40's seem a good bet RIGHT NOW... I like the way the ECMWF is handling this...

Bottom line, the arctic air is coming, and it will shock the nation.

i don't know. We may be able to stay below 40 if we get an overriding situation like in early December. . . but I agree...it will get COLD either way...and lows in the lower 20s would certainly be the coldest air of the last two winters (coldest last winter at Tomball = 27F...this winter at Tomball = 27/28F)

[jasons2k]

BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

I don't see what's so shocking about that... we've been really warm ever since, so that's not saying much.

The coldest so far here in Houston was a high of 36/37 and a low in the 20s...a repeat of that or a colder scenario is COLD by my standards and cold enough for wintry weather too..which is kind of exciting. I think it is saying a lot....I mean to go from record warmth to the COLDEST air of the season seems kind of big to me.

Sometimes you read too much into things. The coldest SINCE December is not the same thing as the coldest all season.

The coldest day we've had since then was 56 (for a high). Beating that wouldn't be anything special.

Furthermore, we haven't had any 20's yet this season. The lowest so far officially has been 31 on 12/8.

I'm really not trying to be rude, but this twisting words into saying something you want is really getting a bit old. Just take it for what it says, geez.

Tomball has had 20s (down to 27F)...sorry I should be more specific..THAT was who I was referring to. Also, if you read the shrevport, LA discussion which includes areas like Lufkin, they are saying "coldest all winter"...that would translate into 36/37 or below if the same was true for Houston. Also...when Dallas says SINCE Early December...they are likely reffering to that cold spell we got during early December. Also...the coldest we have had since early December was 40s for highs in mid December...for instance the period of Dec. 16th and 17th stayed below 50 at Tomball...with highs of 49F and 48F (which is lower than the 56 you came up with)...and at IAH it was 50F and 48F on those days.

You're right, I completely forgot about the little cold spell in mid December. I got the 56 by pulling up Jan's numbers.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the current forecast for next Saturday from the NWS, but note that this is 7 days out, and they are usually too warm on their 7-day forecasts. They like to make sure the cold is coming first before lowering it. A perfect example is the early December cold spell. The 7-day forecast was about 58...and the DAY before it was 45. We ended up only hitting 36/37. So anyway...here is their day 7 forecast for north Houston/Spring:

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Definitely a step in the right direction...AND they also have a 20% precip. chance.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
^^18Z GFS on day 7. This looks VERY cold and very wet for next weekend. It also looks like a big winter storm may be setting up with lots of ice and some snow on the north side. To me...this looks like an early December set up...but with moisture instead of just clouds...which could lead to colder highs, and thus wintery precip. This is the 2nd run of the GFS to hint at winter weather in Houston.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
^^Also, take a look at the cold air behind the front/moisture. 850mb temps. get down to -6C to -9C during hour 174!

[Tyler]

The only problem with that forecast is Houston's warm bias. They are following the GFS MOS temp guidance verbatim. Thats going to hurt them in the long run. The GFS MOS temp guidance is handling this arctic air horribly (just like in December), so expect some really bad temp forecasts to be put out in the next couple of days, unless they begin to realize how cold this airmass really is. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 40's does not compute.

[Tyler]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_162.shtml
^^18Z GFS on day 7. This looks VERY cold and very wet for next weekend. It also looks like a big winter storm may be setting up with lots of ice and some snow on the north side. To me...this looks like an early December set up...but with moisture instead of just clouds...which could lead to colder highs, and thus wintery precip. This is the 2nd run of the GFS to hint at winter weather in Houston.

SNOW! The air would DEFINITELY be cold enough for snow. The moisture is a problem. Interesting next couple of days, huh?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only problem with that forecast is Houston's warm bias. They are following the GFS MOS temp guidance verbatim. Thats going to hurt them in the long run. The GFS MOS temp guidance is handling this arctic air horribly (just like in December), so expect some really bad temp forecasts to be put out in the next couple of days, unless they begin to realize how cold this airmass really is. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 40's does not compute.

yes, I agree fully.

[Tyler]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
^^Also, take a look at the cold air behind the front/moisture. 850mb temps. get down to -6C to -9C during hour 174!

Teens perhaps!?

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
^^Also, take a look at the cold air behind the front/moisture. 850mb temps. get down to -6C to -9C during hour 174!

Teens perhaps!?

If we got PERFECT radiational cooling...then I would not rule out teens as a possibility. IF we did get teens it would be the coldest since 1996.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_162.shtml
^^18Z GFS on day 7. This looks VERY cold and very wet for next weekend. It also looks like a big winter storm may be setting up with lots of ice and some snow on the north side. To me...this looks like an early December set up...but with moisture instead of just clouds...which could lead to colder highs, and thus wintery precip. This is the 2nd run of the GFS to hint at winter weather in Houston.

SNOW! The air would DEFINITELY be cold enough for snow. The moisture is a problem. Interesting next couple of days, huh?

VERY interesting! I am hoping for a trend to develop and hoping that these models stay consistent. If the GFS looks the same by this Wednesday, then we should really begin to watch closely. Also, I would predict a winter weather forecast by Thursday if the models look the same at that point.

[Tyler]

Yes, the I hope the models do stay consistent. The 0z GFS and ECMWF better not let me down.

[Brent]

I love this map... if only it would verify.



I do believe next weekend will be VERY cold here though.