Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

Brent, snow for me AND you on the 18z GFS! Now, wouldn't that be lovely if that verified?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a look (for all those who do not want to have to look it up) at just how cold it could get behind the arctic front. These are 850mb temps:



Also...here is a look at the potential wintry weather for Houston the day before:



**Look at that drainage! That air would be coming straight from northern Alaska and Canada! Burr....**

[Tyler]

Folks, thats cold, I don't care who you are. Highs in the 30's and 40's, with lows in the teens and 20's. I'm shivering right now looking at that...

The EURO has been showing this for a while now, and the GFS is finally catching on.

[aggiecutter]

The local mets uphere in the arklatex region see the cold coming...

DISCUSSION...
A COOL NIGHT AREAWIDE IN STORE AS NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGIN
TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PRETTY
MUCH DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS GENERATED WITH INCREASING
NW UPPER FLOW...IN EXCESS OF 100 KNOTS...LATER TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN 20S AREAWIDE...HAVE LOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING...WITH LOWER 20S IN HILLS OF AR/OK. LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN BEFORE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO CONVECTIVE WITH
LI VALUES WELL IN POSITIVE RANGE. PUTTING IN CHANCE RW NE...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL. LEAVE POPS OUT OF EAST TX. PREDOMINANT
UPPER FLOW FROM NW AND NORTH AFTER THIS FRONT...KEEPING TEMPS AT
OR BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS. DEEP UPPER TROF ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH. UPPER WINDS TURN DUE NORTH SO
LOWERED WED AND WED NIGHT TEMPS TO AGREE MORE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. THE REAL COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. LACK
OF SNOW COVER IN NORTHERN STATES MAY MODIFY THIS POLAR AIR...BUT
GIVEN VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...ALSO LOWERED WEEKEND TEMPS TO REFLECT PERHAPS
THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Folks, thats cold, I don't care who you are. Highs in the 30's and 40's, with lows in the teens and 20's. I'm shivering right now looking at that...

The EURO has been showing this for a while now, and the GFS is finally catching on.

YES! VERY COLD! I went to a temperature converter and -8C at 850mb would equate to 17.6F were we to get PERFECT radiational cooling. IF we did not get good radiational cooling, then we probably would not see teens, but with low dewpoints we would be able to probably see a hard freeze even with thick clouds...and this is if the cold air goes east. Yes, believe it or not, but that cold air the GFS is showing is even with the coldest air going east. If the high is stronger, and the coldest air came straight at SE Texas, then 850mb temps. below -9C would be possible in Houston.

[Tyler]

Here is a colored representation of the day 7 on the GFS:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a colored representation of the day 7 on the GFS:

that looks like -6C 850mb temps. in South Houston...-7C downtown and -8C in north Houston. VERY COLD...especially if that radiational cooling set up. thank god we don't like in a place like Chicago though...look how cold it is up that way.

[aggiecutter]

Oh no, we're all going to freeze...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Oh no, we're all going to freeze...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

wow. that is one heck of a serious temp. outlook for the CPC to put out. I don't think I have ever seen something that drastic. They are usually biased warm...they must have a really bad feeling about this cold that's coming. I'm starting to wonder.....what if JB is right about the 1899 scenario this time? lol.

[Tyler]

LOL! EVERYBODY, RUN FOR THE HILLS! THERE IS NO ESCAPING THE COLD!

Seriously though, I haven't seen a graphic like that from the CPC in a long time. Of course, on the weekends, they are automated, but still.

[Extremeweatherguy]

LOL! EVERYBODY, RUN FOR THE HILLS! THERE IS NO ESCAPING THE COLD!

Seriously though, I haven't seen a graphic like that from the CPC in a long time. Of course, on the weekends, they are automated, but still.

yeah, and especially for such a wide area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6-10 day outlook is cold too...especially for Houston and the SE:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

[Tyler]

Wow.

[Tyler]

If this arctic outbreak comes to pass (and it certainly could given how the models are starting to agree with each other), this thread is going to be 100 pages long before too long...

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this arctic outbreak comes to pass (and it certainly could given how the models are starting to agree with each other), this thread is going to be 100 pages long before too long...

yeah, it probably will.

[Brent]

Oh no, we're all going to freeze...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

wow. that is one heck of a serious temp. outlook for the CPC to put out. I don't think I have ever seen something that drastic. They are usually biased warm...they must have a really bad feeling about this cold that's coming. I'm starting to wonder.....what if JB is right about the 1899 scenario this time? lol.

LOL... 1899.

[Brent]

LOL! EVERYBODY, RUN FOR THE HILLS! THERE IS NO ESCAPING THE COLD!

That trip to Alaska sounds really good.

[jkt21787]

1899 was one of the coldest and most widespread arctic outbreaks in history. This will be nowhere close. Below zero temperatures occurred in the FL panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

1899 was one of the coldest and most widespread arctic outbreaks in history. This will be nowhere close. Below zero temperatures occurred in the FL panhandle.

Obviously...I was being sarcastic. But it may very well be the coldest since 1996 or 1989.

[Tyler]

1899 was one of the coldest and most widespread arctic outbreaks in history. This will be nowhere close. Below zero temperatures occurred in the FL panhandle.

Yes we know that , however, this could be the coldest blast since 1996.
A 1050MB+ High diving out of Canada with bitterly cold air is nothing to laugh at.