Will The La Nina Moderate/Weaken By Summer?

MiamiensisWx · #1 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 12:34 pm

Since the La Nina has been here since October, I truthfully doubt it will remain as powerful as it is now all the way into summer or August or September. I think the La Nina will likely weaken or moderate at least slightly by that time. Who agrees?

#2 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 12:37 pm

I tend to agree, but I'm not 100% behind this idea yet. As such I'll stay on the fence for now.

MiamiensisWx · #3 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 12:39 pm

This is also why I think the hits will be rather evenly split, instead of one general area (e.g., the Carolinas) getting hit more than another area (e.g., southeast Florida).

KWT · #4 Postby **KWT** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 12:40 pm

Yeah I think the La Nina will tend to weaken, but only slightly, i can still see it being there in the summer, just by that time very weak indeed.

MiamiensisWx · #5 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 12:41 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah I think the La Nina will tend to weaken, but only slightly, i can still see it being there in the summer, just by that time very weak indeed.

I agree. That is why I am getting more and more reluctant to jump on the "Carolina season" bandwagon.

MiamiensisWx · #6 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 12:45 pm

In addition, a La Nina (and an El Nino) often changes significantly at the end of their period of reign. I am getting more and more concerned for southeast Florida and am calling for split hits instead of a dominant Carolina season.

Audrey2Katrina · #7 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 2:19 pm

I think it will; but not as much as some think... still, it will be interesting to watch.

A2K

MiamiensisWx · #8 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 2:22 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:I think it will; but not as much as some think... still, it will be interesting to watch.

A2K

I agree; however, I disagree on that you say it will be "not as much as some think". Towards the end of their reign, a La Nina or El Nino can quickly drop off.

#9 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 7:31 pm

hmmm...interesting topic...it is to early to tell, so I will vote that, BUT, I might as well lay some cards on the table and say that I believe it won't weaken any, it will say the same as it is now...after last season, even that wont surprise me...

MiamiensisWx · #10 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 8:14 pm

brunota2003 wrote:hmmm...interesting topic...it is to early to tell, so I will vote that, BUT, I might as well lay some cards on the table and say that I believe it won't weaken any, it will say the same as it is now...after last season, even that wont surprise me...

I wouldn't be so sure. I've noticed many people who, including you, expect the La Nina to be possibly strong well into summer. You just never know... I have a strong and growing feeling the La Nina will weaken by summer...

WindRunner · #11 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 9:18 pm

I said no, it won't weaken. Though certainly possible (as everything is!), I just don't see it happening in time to make a difference before September at the earliest. Just a hunch.

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 9:25 pm

There is little connection between a La Nina and storms hitting NC rather than FL. Just because 99 was a Nina and storms hit NC doesn't mean thats the rule.

Audrey2Katrina · #13 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 10:11 pm

There is no etched in stone rule about either of them; but some general patterns can be observed.

A2K

wxmann_91 · #14 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 10:27 pm

IMO yes though it could certainly linger longer, and indeed if it does we might have to start looking at its impacts on Hurricane Season 2006.

AussieMark · #15 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:29 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Since the La Nina has been here since October, I truthfully doubt it will remain as powerful as it is now all the way into summer or August or September. I think the La Nina will likely weaken or moderate at least slightly by that time. Who agrees?

I thought the La Nina has only been in effect since like January or something :?:

AussieMark · #16 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:44 am

Scorpion wrote:There is little connection between a La Nina and storms hitting NC rather than FL. Just because 99 was a Nina and storms hit NC doesn't mean thats the rule.

true also in La Nina years the Carolinas seems to get hit more frequently

i.e

1954: Carol (-0.8°C), Edna (-1.0°C) and Hazel (-1.1°C)
1955: Connie, Diane (-1.0°C) and Ione (-1.5°C)
1998: Bonnie(-0.8°C)
1999: Floyd (-0.9°C)

#17 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Feb 13, 2006 3:34 am

AussieMark wrote:
I thought the La Nina has only been in effect since like January or something

It needs to last another 3 months to be a La Nina as they only said there were La Nina conditions the other day.

Jim Cantore · #18 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:02 pm

I'm torn between it I think its too early to tell

MiamiensisWx · #19 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Feb 14, 2006 9:27 pm

*BUMP*

spinfan4eva · #20 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 1:34 am

I think Nina will end or at least weaken before the hurricane season but its ripple effects may still be felt on the season before the atmosphere catches up to the neutral-like conditions.

Will The La Nina Moderate/Weaken By Summer?

Will The La Nina Weaken/Moderate By Summer?

Will The La Nina Moderate/Weaken By Summer?

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Re: Will The La Nina Moderate/Weaken By Summer?

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