(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
308 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER NW TX WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CWFA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE. PASSING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE QUITE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CWFA FRIDAY. WITH
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR BEING USHERED BY THIS FRONT DUE TO
WSW FLOW ALOFT...MODELS NOT HANDLING WELL THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT/POSITION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HENCE...OUR
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GIVE CWFA A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TOP OF SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR
SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

**still looks like they are expecting a chilly, cloudy and wet weekend.**

[jasons2k]

Never say never, but yes you are probably right, it will be harder and harder to match the records of the past. Several locations in Central Florida did hit freezing, but nothing like the damaging hard freeze he predicted.

you need to remember though that he predicted this way back in middle January and said he expected it by Feb. 15th. Overall, I think he did a mighty fine job considering that many places in Central FL hit the 20s and in North Central FL, Ocala hit 21F. For a prediction 1 month out...not bad at all.

Yeah, but he reiterated it again right up until the day before, he said in no uncertain terms "tonight is the night it all happens"

And yes, you may have upped your numbers last Friday, but early last week you were predicting teens in Conroe, among other things, and pretty much said the NWS was going to be way off. And you even did one of those "to those who think IAH will be 29 or above" jabs citing the forecast for Victoria at 25. I was one of "those" who thought IAH would be 29 or above and all I said was the proof will be in the numbers....

[Tyler]

Nope, wasn't you chief. You and jschlitz and gboudx were all in the more temperate camp when it came to predictions on this past weekend. It was Tyler and Extremeweatherguy who predicted the advent of the next Ice Age and Wooly Mammoths running rampant along I-10!

Kidding guys ... just kidding ...

WTF! I never did! Seriously, what the hell is your beef with me?

[Tyler]

You know what Portastorm! I want to see YOUR forecast. You sure to like to put the beat down on other people's forecast. Yet, you have nothing to show...

[Tyler]

Wanted to add one more thing about the diff b/w 1989 (since it is the classic overwhelming the pattern example) and now:

In 1989, the flow aloft was straight out of the NNW all the way from the north pole until it hit the westerlies in NE. So, the high had momentum...and all overwhelming the pattern highs have momentum because of this. This pattern is set up in such a way that the high is fighting the upper air pattern most of the way. It gets a push out...but before it hits the states the upper air pattern is trying to push it back in towards the rockies. It sinks south under its own momentum but because of the NE flow aloft...this SLOWS it down. If the flow was parallel to the rockies...like the flow in 1989...then the high would move down the lee-side and would have some momentum to move a little more south than it is presently going to.

So...it's first fighting the NE winds...then it's fighting the westerlies. If you add some straight flow during the first part of it's journey then it would have a better shot at overwhelming the pattern...but it is getting pushed west before it gets pushed east. That causes drag and slows it down...which means the westerlies can pick it up and take the brunt of it east.

Hmmm... I didn't know that! Interesting stuff AFM, thanks!

[millerblizzard1]

Tyler - good point. It is easy to look back with 20/20 vision.

[Air Force Met]

I would not really call that forecasting an ice age..and in fact..my biggest bust was 2F (at IAH and Galveston). My forecast for Hooks only busted by 1F, and the forecast for my house and Conroe was right on (both places hit 23F), and my Hobby forecast was right on too. Overall, I think I did a pretty good job with the cold snap...and if the winds WOULD have been calm at IAH, Hooks and Galveston then they would have fallen into my range too...but since there were a few periods of light winds, they managed to stay 1-2F above my prediction (and this prediction was made over 24 hrs. out too). Now if I would have been predicting...lets say...17F at IAH, and 12F in Conroe, then yes...you could say that I was forecasting an ice age..but really I don't think I was.

I posted on another thread that I think you need to calibrate your temp sensor. What kind of thermometer do you have and how high is it off the ground? I think you are about 3 degrees too low at your house. The readings from every weatehr stations around there...personal and otherwise are 3-7 degrees higher than that. Either you have a bad thermometer or it's not calibrated right. Bottom line: I bet if I took a sling psychrometer out to your house next freeze that your thermometer would be 3-4 degrees lower than my AF certified thermometer.

[Tyler]

WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.

Just FYI (and you probably already knew this), but that was NYC greatest snowstorm total EVER! You experienced the worst snowstorm for NYC, lucky!

[Tyler]

I would not really call that forecasting an ice age..and in fact..my biggest bust was 2F (at IAH and Galveston). My forecast for Hooks only busted by 1F, and the forecast for my house and Conroe was right on (both places hit 23F), and my Hobby forecast was right on too. Overall, I think I did a pretty good job with the cold snap...and if the winds WOULD have been calm at IAH, Hooks and Galveston then they would have fallen into my range too...but since there were a few periods of light winds, they managed to stay 1-2F above my prediction (and this prediction was made over 24 hrs. out too). Now if I would have been predicting...lets say...17F at IAH, and 12F in Conroe, then yes...you could say that I was forecasting an ice age..but really I don't think I was.

I'm with you Extreme, and I agree. You and I never predicted an ice age, its not funny, and its ridiculous to say we did.

[jasons2k]

WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.

Just FYI (and you probably already knew this), but that was NYC greatest snowstorm total EVER! You experienced the worst snowstorm for NYC, lucky!

Yes, it was nothing short of AMAZING. It was awesome except for the fact we got stuck in Newark for an extra day when the airport closed.

I do have quite a story to tell - when I have time I will post a full narrative with pictures, but yes, for all you snow lovers, it was indeed most incredible - we hit the JACKPOT - definitely a story for the future grandkinds someday (if I live that long )

[Portastorm]

You know what Portastorm! I want to see YOUR forecast. You sure to like to put the beat down on other people's forecast. Yet, you have nothing to show...

Ouch! ... so that's what I get for making light of this weekend's S2K banter about the low temps in Texas huh?

I did say I was kidding about it but you appear to be smarting from my post. I'm sorry you are. I have no particular beef with you whatsoever.

Here is what I posted on Tuesday, Feb. 7th at 10:33 p.m.:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go! "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the record, we did hit 28 at North Austin, according to the Time Warner Cable News8Austin weather site located close to my house. As for the high on Sunday, I was way wrong ... we were in the mid 60s.

[Tyler]

You know what Portastorm! I want to see YOUR forecast. You sure to like to put the beat down on other people's forecast. Yet, you have nothing to show...

Ouch! ... so that's what I get for making light of this weekend's S2K banter about the low temps in Texas huh?

I did say I was kidding about it but you appear to be smarting from my post. I'm sorry you are. I have no particular beef with you whatsoever.

Here is what I posted on Tuesday, Feb. 7th at 10:33 p.m.:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go! "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the record, we did hit 28 at North Austin, according to the Time Warner Cable News8Austin weather site located close to my house. As for the high on Sunday, I was way wrong ... we were in the mid 60s.

Ok, you made a forecast for 1 city, but not for the number of cities I did, but thats not my point. You said I forecasted an ice age. That is ludicrous. I busted badly and I know that, winds were up too high, and I thought they would go calm. But the point is, I'm still trying to gather from that really bad bust. I'm trying to find out what I can do different next time, trying to understand where I went wrong, and here you go, with some joke to put me and my forecast down. I don't find it very funny.

I have a sense of humor, but not when it's to degrade myself.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Never say never, but yes you are probably right, it will be harder and harder to match the records of the past. Several locations in Central Florida did hit freezing, but nothing like the damaging hard freeze he predicted.

you need to remember though that he predicted this way back in middle January and said he expected it by Feb. 15th. Overall, I think he did a mighty fine job considering that many places in Central FL hit the 20s and in North Central FL, Ocala hit 21F. For a prediction 1 month out...not bad at all.

Yeah, but he reiterated it again right up until the day before, he said in no uncertain terms "tonight is the night it all happens"

And yes, you may have upped your numbers last Friday, but early last week you were predicting teens in Conroe, among other things, and pretty much said the NWS was going to be way off. And you even did one of those "to those who think IAH will be 29 or above" jabs citing the forecast for Victoria at 25. I was one of "those" who thought IAH would be 29 or above and all I said was the proof will be in the numbers....

If I recall. I never really "forecasted" teens. All I did was say that they were a slim possibility and that we would need to watch the situation. This too was days before the event. I never mentioned teens as a likely possibility once we got closer. Also..the IAH comment/prediction was one of my only busts in this situation...I guess they are just in a lot more of a heat island than I predicted. Places like Conroe though did get quite cold...23F. and Hooks hit 27F. Also, Hobby airport in south Houston hit 30F and Angleton hit 24F. I would call that quite a cold night for sure, and many of my predictions did not bust, and the ones that did were only by 1-2F.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?

[jasons2k]

FWIW IAH isn't much of a heat island. There is an AWFUL lot of non-developed forest sourrounding the airport on all 4 sides. Believe me I know, I've flown in-and-out of IAH 4 times in the last 2 weeks. Plus the guage is way-out in an open field by the runway; not near the terminal. IAH is usually much cooler than locales inside the Beltway, where you get the true urban heat island. Most of Houston itself didn't even get below freezing.

The other side of the coin is that the highs this past weekend were also quite a bit higher than what was posted last week.

I don't want to make a big deal out of this, or cause rifts, or anything like that. But I do have to say you and Tyler surely made it seem like it was going to get a lot colder than it actually did, it seems like you guys are trying to, as they say, "rewrite history" but go back and re-read the *entire* thread. I did earlier today. Let's just face it, the core of the cold did NOT impact Texas and Houston the way you guys said it would, at least in the fashion you guys were talking about up until I logged-off for the week last Wednesday. From what ya'll were saying my backyard had no chance in hades of making it through the weekend...but it pulled-through just fine.

[Tyler]

WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.

Just FYI (and you probably already knew this), but that was NYC greatest snowstorm total EVER! You experienced the worst snowstorm for NYC, lucky!

Yes, it was nothing short of AMAZING. It was awesome except for the fact we got stuck in Newark for an extra day when the airport closed.

I do have quite a story to tell - when I have time I will post a full narrative with pictures, but yes, for all you snow lovers, it was indeed most incredible - we hit the JACKPOT - definitely a story for the future grandkinds someday (if I live that long )

Can't wait to see those pictures! You have to think about it for a second though, you just happen to go up there at the EXACT SAME TIME the biggest snowstorm in history effected NYC. I'd say your one lucky guy.

[Tyler]

Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?

Thats the one that will bring us back into winter mode, with below normal temperatures all next week, except for monday. It will be a strong front for the middle of February. Maybe yet another freeze.

[cheezyWXguy]

WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.

Just FYI (and you probably already knew this), but that was NYC greatest snowstorm total EVER! You experienced the worst snowstorm for NYC, lucky!

Yes, it was nothing short of AMAZING. It was awesome except for the fact we got stuck in Newark for an extra day when the airport closed.

I do have quite a story to tell - when I have time I will post a full narrative with pictures, but yes, for all you snow lovers, it was indeed most incredible - we hit the JACKPOT - definitely a story for the future grandkinds someday (if I live that long )

Can't wait to see those pictures! You have to think about it for a second though, you just happen to go up there at the EXACT SAME TIME the biggest snowstorm in history effected NYC. I'd say your one lucky guy.

Ill say...it must have been icreadable seeing nearly 27 in. of snow pile up rite where u were...U are so lucky!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?

Thats the one that will bring us back into winter mode, with below normal temperatures all next week, except for monday. It will be a strong front for the middle of February. Maybe yet another freeze.

For the record, last Saturday night/ Sunday morning, the official temp at CC Airport dropped to 25. Up the road a few miles from my house at a co-op station, the temp came in 23. Interesting that some of our temps down here were just as cold or even colder than the Houston area. I am going to guess I was in the upper 20's at my house.

[Air Force Met]

...and Angleton hit 24F. I would call that quite a cold night for sure, and many of my predictions did not bust, and the ones that did were only by 1-2F.

I am posting here what I did on another thread so that others may see it...

"First of all...Angleton's airport temps are always too low. They DO need to be recalibrated. I live there....within 4 miles of the airport (and the airport is CLOSER to the coast!)...and I was at 29.8F for a low and I AM calibrated to the 1/10th of a degree with a certified thermometer.

Second...did you bother to look at LBX's temps at all or just their low? They went from 25F to 30F to 24F all in the space of 2 hours. Does that sound like a well calibrated instrument to you? Yesterday they were 29F...I was 33F. The sensor they have doesn't do real bad when it is warmer...but flakes out when it gets cold. I live there...I'm telling you it wasn't 24F. I have 2 thermometers at my house...even the one near the pasture (which runs about 2 F colder) was only 28F on the 12th."

BTW...during the afternoons...our high temps are almost always the same...and during the fall, spring and summer our lows are close. Before anyone starts calling for a heat island effect on me...I live ner a huge pasture in a fairly wooded area in Angleton....not a lot of concrete around there and my sensor is 100' away from any concrete anyway (which is only the street I live on). I think the sensor gets wacky with cold lows...and I've seen that happen before with automated systems.