My 2006 Forecast And Storm By Storm Predictions

[MiamiensisWx]

Agreed, windycity; I think many areas will see landfalls in 2005, including the Carolinas, southeast Florida (chances are growing), and Texas.

[windycity]

i also agree somewhat with the gulf threat. SSTs in the NGOM are also a real concern. I was hoping the cold weather woulda made a difference, but it really didnt.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think Texas will be the most likely area by far along the Gulf of Mexico to get hit, especially middle to western Texas.

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

[MiamiensisWx]

southfloridawx2005, do you agree with my points?

[f5]

I think Texas will be the most likely area by far along the Gulf of Mexico to get hit, especially middle to western Texas.

are you saying san antonio el paso,amarillo abiliene ect are at risk beacuse you said middle& western texas and thats what a texan would consider geographically

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm saying western and central coastal Texas, f5.

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

I have lowered the number of major hurricanes I am forecasting slightly; however, my numbers stay the same in all other respects.

Here are my updated numbers...

16 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

16/9/5

[windycity]

wow, everyday it looks more likely that the east coast (Fl) will be effected this season.( hows that for my choice of words?) I also have bad feeling about our area, and i dread thinking about it. A major would be awful but at least surge wouldnt be a big issue. Damage would be from the high winds except for coastal property. Oceanfront condos would be bye bye. I have a gut feeling that the Bermuda High will set up like 04, in March of that year ridging came about this time and the rest is history. At least in 04 we had shear, probably wont see alot of that this year. I hate being gloom and doom, im actually normally a optimist, but this year scares me. Also the gulf SSTs in places are above last year, imagine that!!!!!

[ROCK]

I'm saying western and central coastal Texas, f5.

agreed. Trend has been west the last two years.

[windycity]

CVW. with the Burmuda High perhaps setting up early, your so. Fl. senariro could very well ring true. We have to rember that in 04 the high remained stationary all summer long, into winter if i remember correctly.

[CHRISTY]

we have to keep taps on the bermuda high...

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that all coastal areas of the atlantic basin should pay close attention to forcast put out by the national hurricane center as it is forcasted to be above average. If that bermuda high is still in place the gulf coast and east coast of the united state might be under the gun. I have a feeling that even though SST's in the atlantic basin are coming back towards normal that a couple months of warm to hot temperates will heat it back up but, not to the levels it was last year or maybe. I"m not sure what to think 100% at this point we'll see at the end of april how conditions are in the basin and see what the NHC prediction numbers put out and also see what the temps of eastern to central pacific are.

I personally hope we have a below average year for hurricanes but, i don't control that. We need a break here in the united states.

[weatherwoman132]

I think that all coastal areas of the atlantic basin should pay close attention to forcast put out by the national hurricane center as it is forcasted to be above average. If that bermuda high is still in place the gulf coast and east coast of the united state might be under the gun. I have a feeling that even though SST's in the atlantic basin are coming back towards normal that a couple months of warm to hot temperates will heat it back up but, not to the levels it was last year or maybe. I"m not sure what to think 100% at this point we'll see at the end of april how conditions are in the basin and see what the NHC prediction numbers put out and also see what the temps of eastern to central pacific are.

I personally hope we have a below average year for hurricanes but, i don't control that. We need a break here in the united states.

yes we do. I really appriciate all of you guys letting out your predictions and gut feelings. thanks. I live on the east coast, and I hope that your forcasting is incorrect, although it makes a lot of sense. thanks again.

[MiamiensisWx]

You're welcome! I hope it will be wrong, too; unfortunately, it will very likely happen within the next few years, especially since we are in the active cycle.

[weatherwoman132]

yeah. on the discovery channel, they were talking abiut last year's hurricane season, and this one meterologist said that we are actually at the tail-end of an inactive season. is that true?

[cheezyWXguy]

Its kind of like that question, "Is the glass half empty or half full?"
We are at the end of inactive period which I think ended in 2002 because there were 16 storms in 2003. But we are also in the beginning of an active period that could last for 10-20 more years...thats my take on it.

[weatherwoman132]

oh gosh....so it's gonna get bad...real bad...I wish I'm not here to see the worst of it...that's all.....pretty soon there is gonna be this :