Will South Florida Be Hit by a Major Hurricane this Year?

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Mar 18, 2006 11:32 pm

Cycloneye opened up a poll on this topic for the NE Caribbean islands, I would like to know what you think about South Florida's hit probability. South Florida is Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe (I'll include the FL Keys as well).

It's been since 1992 that South Florida has been hit. I also think we are reverting back to a 1930s-1940s pattern. In fact I have some inside information from some pro mets that think the pattern could indeed could be reverting. The chances for a strong Bermuda High similar to 2004 are high also. This Spring appears as though it will be dry, many say there is a correlation between dry Springs in South Florida and hurricane season. With that said, I will say that South Florida is overdue and will be hit from the east by a possibly by a Cape Verde Storm.

boca · #2 Postby **boca** » Sat Mar 18, 2006 11:49 pm

Yes because of our dry spring and persistent upper and mid level high pressure for so long without a breakdown whatsoever will probably get a major.

CHRISTY · #3 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:04 am

all i can say is we have been soooo lucky here in the southeast we have had them go over our heads and under!2004 is one example of that but this year maybe a different story for us so all i can say be ready and have your family hurricane plan in place which u are really suppose to have if u live anywere in the southeast! :shocked!:

Vandora · #4 Postby **Vandora** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:09 am

I am moving back home to Ohio in September (oh, peak of the season!), so if there IS a major, I hope it will be after that.

I'm not sure if I think there will be. I'm just hoping I'm not here for it.

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:31 am

85% say yes so far... :eek:

#6 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:02 pm

90%

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #7 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:53 pm

Too early to tell..but i also think we revert back to a 1930s/40s pattern...

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #8 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:57 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

that's when (1930s) we had dust bowl and drought in midwest
similar setup this year but there is no dust bowl so far 2006 thank goodness
also a 2004 like bermuda high
all will combine to make a strong set up for hurricanes
also consider the fact that gulf stream waters are very warm
and loop current waters are very warm so a very intense storm could develop and strike from the southwest or southeast or east into south
florida feeding off of hot waters on both sides later this year...the waters are already very warm in gulf stream off FL East Coast and GOM
off the SW Florida Coast...
so watch out this fall South Florida IMO

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #9 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:59 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hot waters in the gulf stream will exude warm air above their surface and
promote sinking heat and thus aid in the formation of a stronger ridge
that both
1. Steers storms towards FL East/SE Coast
2. Allows for better storm ventilation/blocks sources of shear

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #10 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 2:01 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

also add
3. And thus aids in rapid intensification of the storms
4. SSTs will be high and heat up in response to the ridge
5. High SSTs/Lack of Shear/Strong Ridge aloft = VERY RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATIONS

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #11 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 2:02 pm

Again this is not a official forecast just hypothetical possibilities

weatherwoman132 · #12 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 2:11 pm

I beleive them. what hurricane is as your advatar?

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 2:11 pm

I think we may just see some weak la nina like conditions this summer...last summer we had some weak la nina like conditions in October but this summer it may be around longer (albeit weak).

stacyp · #14 Postby **stacyp** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 3:26 pm

My woman's intuition tells me that we won't see a major hurricane here this season. :wink:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #15 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 4:21 pm

weatherwoman132 wrote:I beleive them. what hurricane is as your advatar?

Hurricane Frances when it was nearing Tampa Bay.

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 4:28 pm

I say no...

HurricaneHunter914 · #17 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:09 pm

It has happened two years in a row and with the bermuda high holding out yeah it's a reall high chance of getting hit.

weatherwoman132 · #18 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:32 pm

yeah, that meany......she was the size of texas, literally.

#19 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:30 pm

Yes. Sorry but everything seems to be coming together (as others have noted) for you guys this season :cry:

Audrey2Katrina · #20 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 9:52 pm

I'm guessing it'll be 2. One in the south, affecting the Miami-to-keys area, and the other coming through central Florida... just a guess; but that's what it's all about.

A2K