Friday outbreak

[SamSagnella]

This is the thread for tomorrow's severe weather outbreak, there's a separate thread for today.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH TORNADOES LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)

CONFIDENCE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH TORNADOES CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALABAMA.

MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. PREFER THE GFS MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO BE
MOST CONSISTENT AND HANDLES LARGE SCALE FEATURES BEST. THE LATEST
12Z RUN CAME IN A BIT SLOWER...BUT PERHAPS STRONGER WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
BE MADE.

AT 245 PM CST...PARTLY SUNNY...WARM...DRY...AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
WAS OCCURRING ACROSS ALABAMA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 78
TO 83 DEGREE RANGE. MOISTURE WAS INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S THANKS TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS LOCATED OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ACROSS ALABAMA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHEST READINGS WEST.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK INTO AREAS NORTHWEST
OF INTERSTATE 59 AFTER 2 AM CDT...SO KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO
BE UNLIKELY.

ON FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MIX OUT...ALLOWING
SUNSHINE TO WARM THINGS UP NICELY. MODEL HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR
TO BE TOO COOL AND WILL GO ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEM WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 80 AND 85. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...SO SOME TYPE OF WIND OR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEY
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. AGREE WITH SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK WITH
HIGH RISK ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...MODERATE RISK
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 85....AND SLIGHT RISK SOUTH.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LIFT...MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...
STRONG WINDS...AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TWO MAIN INGREDIENTS...LIFT AND INSTABILITY...APPEAR TO BE MOST
IMPRESSIVE...DEFINITELY BIGGER THAN ANY PREVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS YEAR.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY IMPRESSIVE LIFT AS IT
MOVES FROM EAST OKLAHOMA TO NORTH GEORGIA BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -8
SUGGEST MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WHILE SURFACE BASED CAPES
BETWEEN 1500 J/KG TO 2500 J/KG INDICATE ABUNDANT ENERGY AVAILABLE
TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY
COMBINED WITH A WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSON WHICH WILL FOCUS
UPDRAFTS NEAR BOUNDARIES.

WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT THE STRONGEST
THAT CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB
WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS AND 500 MB WINDS 60 TO 80 KNOTS
WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. 0-3 KM HELICITY BETWEEN 250 AND
400 M2/S2 SUPPORT ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...WHICH SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

AS FOR THE EVENT...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WHICH SOME MAY BE LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE TORNADOES...
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AROUND 2 PM CDT AND AFFECT
THOSE AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM TO
ANNISTON LINE. THESE STORMS MAY BE THE MOST DANGEROUS...OCCURRING
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE LONG LIVED...ARE A DEFINITE CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS...AND DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

AFTER 9 PM CDT...BELIEVE A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS ALABAMA...AFFECTING WEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 PM CDT AND
2 AM CDT...THEN EAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 2 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS LINE...
THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY 8 AM CDT SATURDAY AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

[conestogo_flood]

Awe shoot. I'm having a party tomorrow night!!!! Ugh!!!! Now what do I do?! I can't just cancel. Poopy.

[Gorky]

I think tomorrow is looking to be the best day of the year as far as Tornado threat goes, I'd expect similar values to the Mar 12th and April 2nd outbreaks I think. Only thing which worried me is numbers might be lower, due to longer tracked storms, whereas April 2nd has about 26 brief tornados in IL which contributed to the totals. I'm not sure it should be the numebr we concentrate on though... It is quite possible for any tornados to form to be strong to violent in my opinion.
I didn't stick my neck out with the todays storm as I didn't feel at all confident due to almost everyones forecast being much higher than mine (including the nws). It seems like I actually did better than I thought I would . I'm confident enough that tomorrow will be significant, to stick my neck out and compare it to this years other outbreaks

Virtual Chase Target - Leeds, Alabama

[CrazyC83]

In my view, today + tomorrow (+ Saturday?) = the outbreak total.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

While today did not live up to many people's expectations, tomorrow has conditions just as favorable as forecasted. I am holding with the Level 5 for the Tennessee Valley area, and keeping the risk higher than the SPC risk in the Ohio Valley. Once again, violent tornadoes, destructive hail and hurricane-force winds are all possible. There is one difference than today: the air mass there is more humid.

[CrazyC83]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF BATESVILLE
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 157. WATCH NUMBER 157 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1135 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...

DISCUSSION...FAST-MOVING AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER N CNTRL AR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
OZARKS...ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED STORMS MAY INTENSIFY A BIT AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AREA VWPS SHOW AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SUPPORT MID
LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL...STORM ROTATION AS 1 KM SSW FLOW
STRENGTHENS TO AOA 60 KTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...CORFIDI

[Brent]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
MS...NRN AL...AND PARTS OF SRN TN. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS
TN/TUPELO MS AREAS EASTWARD INTO BIRMINGHAM AL AND CHATTANOOGA
...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE AT THE FOCUS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT THROUGH A
LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE TN VLY/SRN
APPALACHIANS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE AND
HIGH RISK AREAS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE MS RIVER
INTO THE APPALACHIANS....

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT LESS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY...LIKELY ADVANCING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND ITS
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD BELT OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND MID SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH A
BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...INCLUDING RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD BECOME
FAIRLY NUMEROUS AND INTENSE BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
WILL PIVOT AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

MODELS SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PLAINS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY. THIS
WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION...AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.

AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. CONFLUENT REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS A
LIKELY FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE. SOME OF THESE SUPERCELLS MAY
BECOME LONG-LIVED...AND MODELS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIALLY LARGE/CLOCKWISE
CURVED HODOGRAPHS ALONG THIS AXIS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES.

WITH THE APPROACH OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY
BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

..OHIO VALLEY

DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AN
AXIS FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO... WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED
TO SURGE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. THIS FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE...WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS IN STRONG AND SHEARED WESTERLY FLOW. IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS BY/ SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING.

..KERR/CROSBIE.. 04/07/2006

[conestogo_flood]

Why is the NWS Nashville saying this?

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE LACK OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

[6SpeedTA95]

Why is the NWS Nashville saying this?

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE LACK OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

I've been saying for a while this might turn into an MCS event and thats what its starting to look like.

[CrazyC83]

30% and hatched though...

[6SpeedTA95]

30% and hatched though...

I dont think we're looking at a major outbreak...I'd guess 25 or less tornadoes, there could be more but windfields aren't really that good for large long track tornadoes. Not saying it can't or wont happen anything is possible, but I find it pretty unlikely at this point.

[breeze]

Why is the NWS Nashville saying this?

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE LACK OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

I've been saying for a while this might turn into an MCS event and thats what its starting to look like.

Being in the high risk area, I can only hope that the NWS Nashville
forecast is right. Still, I've been very busy battening down the hatches!

[6SpeedTA95]

Why is the NWS Nashville saying this?

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE LACK OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

I've been saying for a while this might turn into an MCS event and thats what its starting to look like.

Being in the high risk area, I can only hope that the NWS Nashville
forecast is right. Still, I've been very busy battening down the hatches!

Yeah definately dont let your guard down. There is a risk of tornadoes and surface based storms are beginning to pop up so I think you should definately be on guard.

[Gorky]

The SPC also still playing up the threat of strong and long lived tornados in the MS/AL area, assuming TD's get into the 60's. I'm not sure how likely that is given a bit more cloud cover than I'd expected. Yesterday I thought this would be no problem at all getting into the mid to high 60's easy enough, but I'm having second thoughts now... I'm still thinking that the storms will overcome this and be tornadic, but no where near as confidant as last night

[breeze]

I see those storms popping up in West TN - Carroll County has a severe
thunderstorm warning, already. Tornado watch has just been issued until
8 pm tonight for most of TN.

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch!

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI TO 60 MILES EAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ACROSS TN VALLEY AHEAD OF DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NERN KS. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT/LONG
TRACK TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Memphis City Schools closing at noon.

[memphisvol]

Memphis City Schools closing at noon.

as well as pretty much every other school in the area, county schools desoto county, jackson etc.


so whats the latest, is memphis in the clear or is it going to get bad again, we had probably quarter size hail very hard this morning for about 5 minutes

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...CNTRL AND NRN MS...CNTRL AND NRN
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 071547Z - 071745Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.

THIS MORNING AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATUS.
HOWEVER...MIXING IS INCREASING AROUND THE EDGES OF THIS STRATUS DECK
WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE ACROSS ERN AR. THE
SPECIAL 14Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS SHOWED SOME COOLING HAS OCCURRED IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH LITTLE CAP REMAINING. THIS SUGGEST ONLY A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING IS NEEDED WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS TO
PROMOTE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EWD
ABOVE THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY OVER SERN AR AND NRN MS THEN SPREAD EWD. A 30-40 KT SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM SEWD ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE AND A STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES AND EXPECTED DISCRETE MODES...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2006