Dry May is certain

[Windtalker1]

Don't get your hopes up here in SE Florida....a 30-40% chance is nothing to get excited about.

[jdray]

40% gave us almost an 2/10 an inch yesterday here in NE Florida.

Rain beautiful rain!!

[O Town]

Its been a steady rain here for about an hour. Yee Haw! FINALLY, I sure hope this provides some relief to those fires here in Central Florida. Looks like you guys in the south are getting some already. Keep your fingers crossed, it seems to be holding together pretty good.

[Patrick99]

I'm not going to hold my breath for any rain. You guys are right, a 20-30% chance is nothing to get excited about.

[boca]

It looks like if the line holds together I'll be eating some crow.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... BW&loop=ye

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[gtalum]

Well we had a 20% chance of rain and it's been raining cats and dogs all morning. I've never been so happy to see rain in my life! the pond behind our house was bone dry. The ducks seem very excited.

[O Town]

As does all the wildlife, I just found a tree frog on my screen door, they are all coming out to play.

[gatorcane]

A Dry May is unlikely.

[jabber]

This is just a weak cold front going through..... not a change in the pattern. Once this rolls past, its going to be dry again - IMHO

[WeatherEmperor]

A Dry May is unlikely.

yeah i agree. it looks like in my local forecast, there will be plenty of days with about 30-40% chance of rain this entire remainder of the week.

<RICKY>

[jdray]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 4_prcp.gif

shows near EC (equal chance of above, below or normal) rainfall through the reset of the month for Florida.

Code: Select all

 :APALACHICOLA             :AAF      84 /    66 /   2.80
 :BROOKSVILLE              :BKV      91 /    66 /   1.12
 :CRESTVIEW                :CEW      87 /    59 /   1.05
 :CROSS CITY               :CTY      85 /    66 /   0.31
 :DAYTONA BEACH            :DAB      91 /    69 /   0.00
 :DESTIN                   :DTS      81 /    65 /   0.75
 :FORT LAUDERDALE INTL     :FLL      87 /    74 /   0.00
 :FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC     :FXE      89 /    72 /   0.00
 :FORT MYERS               :FMY      90 /    72 /   0.00
 :FORT MYERS / SW REG AP   :RSW      81 /    73 /   0.00
 :FORT PIERCE              :FPR      92 /    67 /   0.00
 :GAINESVILLE              :GNV      89 /    66 /   0.39
 :JACKSONVILLE             :JAX      86 /    68 /   0.22
 :KEY WEST                 :EYW      84 /    77 /   0.00
 :LEESBURG                 :LEE      93 /    68 /   0.26
 :MARATHON                 :MTH      87 /    78 /   0.00
 :MARIANNA                 :MAI      84 /    63 /   0.49
 :MELBOURNE                :MLB      88 /    68 /   0.00
 :MIAMI                    :MIA      88 /    74 /   0.00
 :NAPLES                   :APF      86 /    71 /   0.00
 :OPA LOCKA                :OPF      90 /    73 /   0.00
 :ORLANDO INTL             :MCO      93 /    71 /     T
 :ORLANDO EXEC             :ORL      92 /    72 /   0.05
 :PANAMA CITY              :PFN      84 /    66 /   1.68
 :PEMBROKE PINES           :HWO      90 /    73 /   0.00
 :PENSACOLA                :PNS      84 /    63 /   0.94
 :POMPANO BEACH            :PMP      86 /    70 /   0.00
 :PUNTA GORDA              :PGD      89 /    65 /   0.00
 :SANFORD                  :SFB      93 /    71 /   0.08
 :SARASOTA / BRADENTON     :SRQ      85 /    70 /   0.06
 :ST. PETERSBURG           :SPG      87 /    72 /   0.40
 :ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER:PIE      89 /    71 /   0.95
 :TALLAHASSEE              :TLH      85 /    64 /   0.64
 :TAMPA                    :TPA      88 /    68 /   1.06
 :VERO BEACH               :VRB      92 /    69 /   0.00
 :WINTER HAVEN             :GIF      91 /    71 /   0.11
 :W KENDALL TAMIAMI AP     :TMB      90 /    67 /   0.00
 :WEST PALM BEACH          :PBI      87 /    73 /   0.00


temps and rainfall from yesterday.
Looks like the panhandle and tampa area got some good rain, the rest is still just a few tenths of an inch.

JAX is still 6 1/2 inches under normal.

[gatorcane]

This is just a weak cold front going through..... not a change in the pattern. Once this rolls past, its going to be dry again - IMHO

It's May in Florida folks! Typical avg rainfalls for the months are only a few inches at best with many areas avg not even 2 inches. One weak cold front can make the difference. June really kicks off the rainy season...so be patient

Also, dry or wet - it has no bearing on the hurricane season since Florida gets hit more from the South (weak ridging) than the east anyway. I can think of some dry years of the 80s (and many in the 90s also where much of Florida had water restrictions) and 1998 and Florida did not see hurricanes those years.

[Taffy]

I will take this rain anyway I can get it. It was so beautiful and I was so happy. I pulled Weatherbug on my cell phone and just gazed at the radar... while sitting at a red light.

Now, I have to go buy windshield wiper blades... I turned them on and rip, off the rubber went.

[CHRISTY]

RAIN STILL COMING?MAYBE WE WIL SEE.....

000
FXUS62 KMFL 091336
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.UPDATE...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING SOUTH APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF RAIN
AREA DOES SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING AT
MIAMI INDICATE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE EVENT GIVEN THE RIGHT
COMBINATION OF SEVERAL ELEMENTS SUCH AS AVAILABLE SUNSHINE...
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...ETC. WILL WATCH CLOSELY. WILL ALSO REDUCE
SOME AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS GIVEN CLOUDINESS ALREADY
PRESENT. WINDS LOOK GOOD.

[gatorcane]

Last summer, SE Palm Beach County was getting rain every day. You could set your clock to it. Right around 3:00 in the afternoon.

Then Wilma cam through....

[Patrick99]

Miami dewpoint is still just 66 degrees, and PWAT is only nearing 1.5".

Should we get some rain, it doesn't appear to me that it will be any kind of deluge. We are getting some pretty decent heating so far, though....maybe that will help the atmosphere destabilize.

[CHRISTY]

GUYS I REALLY THOUGHT WERE GOING TO SEE SOME DESENT RAIN HERE IN SOUTHFLORIDA BUT I JUST FINISHED LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT RADAR LOOPS AND SOUTHFLORIDA'S RAIN CHANCES ARE DECREASEING BY THE MINUTE.....THE RAIN THE WAS MOVING DOWN THE STATE HAS REALLY LOST ALOT OF ITS ENERGY AND LOOKS LIKE ITS VERY LIGHT IN NATURE.ANOTHER WORDS OUR DRY MAY CONTINUES.....SO GET READY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN, HOW LONG I CANT SAY!BUT IVE LOOKED AT SOME MODELS AND HONESTLY THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES I SAW WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.AND OF COURSE THATS SUBJECT TO CHANGE! CHRISTY

[MiamiensisWx]

It's too early to say whether we'll have a dry May or not. Things can change in an instant.

By the way, here is an interesting thread I posted. What are your thoughts on what I wrote?

[flashflood]

It seems are only chance of rain would be for a east coast sea breeze to develop. The upper level cloud cover is limiting insolation in order to get decent EC sea breeze.

Looking out the window, I don't see any convection that could give us any rain down here as the lower level convection looks very much capped. Looks like the high and the dry air are going to win again, but I am still going to hold out for a possible late afternoon shower. I am tired of watering the lawn, c'mon rain!!.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking out the window, I don't see any convection that could give us any rain down here as the lower level convection looks very much capped. Looks like the high and the dry air are going to win again, but I am still going to hold out for a possible late afternoon shower. I am tired of watering the lawn, c'mon rain!!.

Don't worry... I think you may well get your chance soon due to the current pattern(s).