MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA...SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN INTO
   THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344...345...
   
   VALID 140421Z - 140515Z
   
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS
   BEYOND 05Z.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 0410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM
   JACKSON AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN NERN AL NEWD INTO POLK COUNTY IN
   SERN TN.  MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED FARTHER TO
   THE W NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES
   IN FAR NERN MS.  DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN
   TN VALLEY...IN CONJUCTION WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
   WSWLY LLJ...HAVE LARGELY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS WW/S 344 AND 345
   TONIGHT.
   
   REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
   QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
   HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS
   SLOWLY STABILIZING.  EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG COLD
   FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   OVER SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS LOCALLY ENHANCED.
   
   THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A
   THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.  A MORE
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKENING
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35588811 35748712 35748310 34128254 33828514 33238525
   33768790

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO LA...CNTRL/SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347...
   
   VALID 140727Z - 140900Z
   
   CONTINUE WWS 346 AND 347.  ADDITIONAL WWS SOUTH/EASTWARD ACROSS
   LOUISIANA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ONGOING SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE
   BEEN INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
   INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF CYCLONIC
   FLOW...SOUTH OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW.  THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE
   TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
   DAYBREAK...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE
   NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORCING WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BUT STORMS
   SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO LACK OF
   MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  STILL...FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD
   BEARING LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION
    WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  HAIL
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF
   STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...FWD...OUN...
   
   33489846 33719777 33799555 33509387 33409298 33279082
   32638945 30888995 30379129 31049285 31629410 32069632
   32339756 32949842

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA INTO WRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140900Z - 141030Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   RECENT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF GAINESVILLE GA
   IS OCCURRING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT CYCLONIC JET PROGRESSING AROUND
   BASE OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW.  FORCING HAS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE
   ADVECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.  SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD
   BEARING LAYER...BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
   UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
   HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE
   NORTHERN GULF STATES NEXT FEW HOURS...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME
   CUT-OFF.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER
   MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
   CAROLINA THROUGH 11-12Z...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO
   DIMINISH.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   34818325 34908262 34798165 34168108 33628115 33488177
   33838251 34468399

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347...
   
   VALID 141023Z - 141130Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MID
   MORNING.  WWS 346 AND 347 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 11Z.
   
   SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH
   SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER LARGE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF
   2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  STRONG INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS CONCERNING FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION.  POSSIBLE GRAVITY
   WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR WACO MAY BE IN
   PROCESS OF WEAKENING CAP.  AND...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
   COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD
   LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.  THOUGH
   FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW
   HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   31459717 31729568 30869438 29879333 29239474 29149570
   29359671 29959722 30449737

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0904 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX...LA...SRN/WRN MS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...
   
   VALID 141404Z - 141530Z
   
   REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY SHORTLY.  MAIN SEVERE EMPHASIS NEXT 2-3
   HOURS MAY BE BETWEEN POE-LCH...AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
   ANGELINA/JASPER COUNTY BOW ECHO FORCES ASCENT IN INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  MCS WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1.75 INCH
   DIAMETER SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW AND TOWARD GULF COAST OF SWRN
   LA/EXTREME SE TX THROUGH 19Z.  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE
   AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS HEATS...MIXES...DESTABILIZES AND COUPLES
   TO WHAT IS NOW ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BACKBUILD
   ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ARE PRESENT...AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW
   POINTS S AND SE OF CENTRAL TX BAROCLINIC ZONE...COVERING MOST OF
   S-CENTRAL/SE TX.  NRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN CRP RAOB IS
   INDEFINITE BUT MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
   PENDING MORE INTENSE HEATING AND/OR FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM SE TX
   ACTIVITY.
   
   SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE MRGL WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS LA/MS
   GULF COASTAL PLAIN AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH...WITH LESS
   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ABOVE SFC AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SFC MOIST
   ADVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW AND MID/UPPER 60S DEW
   POINTS UPSTREAM...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES INDICATE PRONOUNCED DRYING
   ABOVE. HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY STEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER
   LAPSE RATES AND HELP MAINTAIN GUSTS/HAIL TO SFC IN MOST INTENSE
   CELLS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   32029691 32189546 31639382 32509253 32788997 30748883
   29969041 29479184 29769321 29279484 29739902 31899778

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 141605Z - 141900Z
   
   RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM ONGOING
   ACTIVITY OVER LIMESTONE/FREESTONE COUNTIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MERGE
   THEN SHIFTS SWD/SEWD TOWARD CLL REGION...AND ALSO...FROM ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WSWWD TOWARD TPL/AUS AREA.
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE ACROSS MUCH OF
   DISCUSSION AREA.  MERGING AND TRAINING OF CORES WILL PROLONG HEAVY
   RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES...ENHANCING THIS HAZARD. 
   
   REF WW 349 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SVR THREAT OVER
   THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION TO IMPACT ON SVR POTENTIAL...LARGE
   BUOYANCY RESULTING FROM STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING
   OF MOIST INFLOW SECTOR WILL AID PRECIP PRODUCTION...AMIDST FAVORABLE
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.  SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70 F ARE ANALYZED IN
   PROSPECTIVE INFLOW SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX...AND SHOULD NOT MIX
   AWAY GIVEN STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT FARTHER S IN CRP RAOB.  12Z UPPER
   AIR ANALYSES SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE SFC MAXIMIZED IN DRT-LFK
   CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS 17-20 DEG C AT 925 MB...AND 13-15 DEC G
   AT 850 MB.  GPS-PW DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW IN 1.25-1.5
   INCH RANGE...LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS
   OVER LOWER SABINE RIVER AREA SHOULD STALL PARALLEL TO AND JUST E OF
   I-45 FROM SAN JACINTO COUNTY NWD...ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
   PROVIDING BOTH A FOCUS AND ERN BOUND FOR GREATEST RAINFALL
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   29979784 29919820 30489830 30839824 31389814 31389703
   31769679 31859637 31749606 31479582 30949558 30669538

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...NC...NRN SC...SERN WV.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141620Z - 141815Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ISOLATED AND BETTER
   ORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.  SEVERE TSTM WW WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY FOR WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA.  WW SUBSEQUENTLY MAY BE
   REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION FARTHER E AS WELL.
   
   16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED
   WITH BAND OF WAA RELATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN
   VA/EXTREME NERN NC -- ANALYZED FROM SRN PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD ACROSS
   WAKE COUNTY TO VICINITY DAN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX/MOVE NEWD
   15-25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO
   S-CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF AROUND 7-8 DEG C/KM -- EVIDENT IN MORNING GSO RAOB -- ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING WRN NC...WRN VA AND SERN WV...AND
   SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NC THROUGH CENTRAL VA.  THIS WILL
   COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO FURTHER REDUCE CINH AND BOOST MLCAPES TO
   AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W-CENTRAL VA SSWWD TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL SC.
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...STRONGER SFC HEATING
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIMILAR BUOYANCY OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC AND
   S-CENTRAL VA...SW OF BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES -- I.E., 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH SWD EXTENT
   BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   
   34028082 34458176 35458219 37648121 38327818 37417761
   36057645 35067624 34067875

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...S-CENTRAL/SE TX.L
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349...
   
   VALID 141723Z - 141930Z
   
   BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FCST TO SHIFT TO WRN PORTION WW WITH MUCH
   OF SABINE RIVER REGION EWD BEING SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY BOWING
   MCS THAT HAS CLEARED LCH REGION.  ERN PORTION MCS WILL AFFECT MUCH
   OF VERMILION PARISH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
   GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE.
   
   AT 17Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY NWWD
   ACROSS TRINITY BAY AND NRN HARRIS COUNTY...THEN NNWWD NEAR I-45.
   THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD AND MERGE WITH INITIALLY
   SEPARATE CONFLUENCE LINE...WHICH IS ANALYZED FROM GLS WNWWD ACROSS
   FT BEND/AUSTIN COUNTIES...TO NEAR WILLIAMSON/MILAM COUNTY LINE.
   COMBINED OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE LINE OVER HOU AREA MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROPAGATION OF ERN PORTION OF ANOTHER MCS EVIDENT
   AT 17Z BETWEEN LEON AND CORYELL COUNTIES.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
   SWD AND SEWD INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF
   CONFLUENCE LINE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND
   HEAVY RAINFALL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 862 FOR ASSOCIATED HEAVY
   RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 9 DEG C/KM AND
   70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG IN MUCH OF
   CENTRAL TX...AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX.  NRN EXTENT OF STRONG CAPPING
   EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP RAOB SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL S OF WW FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS. HOWEVER...SWWD/WWD BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN HILL
   COUNTRY TO UVA/DRT AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   29679340 29709291 29979262 30719236 31059194 30769164
   29929128 29189164 29459339 28659512 28919530 28849554
   29209586 28969628 29279668 29079690 29389722 29139759
   29449812 29119840 29339896 30169909 30819902 31379730
   31339556 30989492 30099441

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND EXTREME WRN TX
   PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141808Z - 142045Z
   
   TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SHOULD INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...WITH NET SWD MOTION ACROSS PORTIONS
   NERN AND E-CENTRAL NM. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP WRN PORTIONS
   HARTLEY/OLDHAM/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX PANHANDLE AS WELL.  HAIL
   AND OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SEVERAL CB AND NUMEROUS TCU ARE EVIDENT FROM SERN UNION COUNTY NM
   WWD OVER PORTIONS RIO ARRIBA COUNTY...WHERE DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN HAS QUICKLY REMOVED CINH.  SFC ANALYSES INDICATE
   POSTFRONTAL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME TO MORE ELY COMPONENT...A TREND
   THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ENHANCE
   BOTH UPSLOPE LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND ALSO ELONGATE 0-3
   KM HODOGRAPHS. RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN STORMS RIGHTWARD-MOVING TOWARD S OR
   SSW...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG.  VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   TURNING OF FLOW VECTORS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING
   DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR ALSO.  SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO 70S F AND DEW
   POINTS LOW-MID 40S F YIELD MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF NERN NM.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   36070644 36300559 35950428 36040364 35960323 35540276
   34570295 34420336 34450345 34450524 35030618

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...
   
   VALID 141842Z - 141945Z
   
   MUCH OF NC PORTION WW IS BEING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WW 351...WHICH
   ALSO WILL INCLUDE ADDITIONAL TERRITORY EWD TOWARD COAST.  VA/SC
   PORTIONS WILL REMAIN IN SVR TSTM WW 350.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL/ERN
   NC...PARTICULARLY INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE LOW
   LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED AND HODOGRAPH SIZE IS MAXIMIZED.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL PORTION PAMLICO SOUND
   WNWWD TO NEAR DAN.  PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS EVIDENT ALONG
   WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SSE DAN....WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
   MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OVER REGION.  MLCAPES ARE
   INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG IN MORE STRONGLY HEATED AREAS OF ERN
   NC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
   
   36558054 36527590 35237558 34517749 34817970 34898078

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141922Z - 142115Z
   
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH
   MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AN APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...GENERALLY IN AN AXIS BETWEEN MGM AND TOI
   ARCING NEWD TOWARDS MCN. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE S OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
   TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. EOX AND JGX VAD WIND
   PROFILERS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AL
   INTO CNTRL GA...WITH ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS. AS
   STORMS PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31788740 32248748 32248612 32668496 33418332 33148284
   32568261 31578406 31418540 31558673

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL AND SE TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349...
   
   VALID 142007Z - 142100Z
   
   BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM HOU AREA WNWWD TO MCCULLOCH
   COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA IN TX.
    WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 21Z TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS JUST W AND/OR S
   OF PRESENT WW BETWEEN JCT/DRT AREAS AND MIDDLE TX COAST...AND ALSO
   TO EXCLUDE LA...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY
   EARLIER MCS.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE AIR
   MASS OVER REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEW POINTS
   REMAINING IN UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000
   J/KG.  STRONG CAPPING STILL IS EVIDENT FROM SAT AREA SWD...LIMITING
   DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   HOWEVER...REINFORCEMENT OF THOSE BOUNDARIES BY COLD POOLS MAY
   OVERCOME CINH AND ALLOW CONVECTION EVENTUALLY TO CONTINUE OR
   PROPAGATE THROUGH THAT REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LA MCS IS
   EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 30 SSE GLS NWWD ACROSS FT BEND COUNTY  AND INTO
   CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY.  ACTIVITY HAS
   DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM COLORADO COUNTY ESEWD
   TO MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY SVR
   CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO NRN HARRIS COUNTY.
   MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF BLENDED
   OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SWD THROUGH SJT-JCT-AUS CORRIDOR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   31169961 31249824 30589581 30129482 29369453 28909512
   28629757 28789972 29650082 30400058

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...
   
   VALID 142035Z - 142130Z
   
   SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUE TO MOVE
   ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA.  A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS
   REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN PAST 1-2
   HOURS. MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS OVER ERN NC...AND IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN NC
   INTO SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
   REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE BENEATH NRN PORTION
   OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS WW AREA...WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR. VWP ACROSS REGION SHOW SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 3
   KM...SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SRH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 300 J/KG FOR
   RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT...EWD MOVING STORMS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
   
   34597709 34637877 34767992 35428028 36407886 36477583
   35257552

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN VA...WRN NC...SC...ERN GA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...352...
   
   VALID 142058Z - 142230Z
   
   ISOLATED/MRGL SVR MAY STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL VA...AS
   CONVECTION NOW BETWEEN LYH-PTB MOVES NEWD INTO POCKET OF RELATIVELY
   UNSTABLE AIR THAT WAS HEATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHICH HAS
   BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY OTHER CONVECTION.  WRN NC PORTION OF
   WW 350 -- WHICH WAS NOT CONVERTED TO TORNADO WW 351 -- HAS
   STABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...REDUCING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATEST BUOYANCY REMAINS OVER SRN LOBE
   OF WW 350 AND ADJACENT WW 352. THIS AREA IS DIRECTLY BENEATH
   MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX PIVOTING EWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES
   CYCLONE...RESULTING IN 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITHIN
   PAST HOUR FROM ACTIVITY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY.  LIKELY SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES SUPPORT RISK OF EVEN LARGER HAIL FROM ACTIVITY OVER NERN
   SC AND SERN NC...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY
   PRIOR CONVECTION.  ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN
   PORTION OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CHS COUNTY
   STORM...ACROSS GA/SC BORDER REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...
   
   34817847 34517824 34727808 34707773 34227735 33877799
   33737884 33157921 32368047 31308122 31948223 33988260
   34048196 35548150 36128150 36958016 37318036 38177966
   38687886 37897653 37177645 36587688 36547915 36237919
   36178006 35768043 34838032

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...
   
   VALID 142337Z - 150100Z
   
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD
   ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 353. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. AREA TO THE S OF WW 353 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
   IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SWD MOVING
   CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS IN AN AXIS FROM VAL VERDE TO MATAGORDA
   COUNTIES. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 353...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
   THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR LRD. MLCAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
   ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD
   TO LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...HIGH DEW POINT
   DEPRESSIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR LRD WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN
   SFC-BASED CHARACTER IN MODIFIED MARINE LAYER AIR MASS NEAR THE
   COASTAL BEND...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH O-1 KM SRH OF 100 TO 150 M2/S2 /PER CRP VAD PROFILER/.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   29810171 30120003 29689729 29069520 27719710 26699776
   26249873 27419946 28830051

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...
   
   VALID 150007Z - 150130Z
   
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH
   ERN NC.
   
   THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SC NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC
   WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM JUST S OF RALEIGH EWD TO S
   OF ELIZABETH CITY. DESPITE SOME STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -17C
   WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THE THREAT
   OF SEVERE WEATHER TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. STORMS HAVE INCREASED
   ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
   UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. A SLY LOW
   LEVEL JET OVER ERN NC IS COUPLED WITH EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
   JET...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO THREAT
   MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WHERE THE LOW
   LEVEL FLOW IS LOCALLY BACKED TO ELY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
   
   35257712 35407944 35697954 36037815 36167716 35937665

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/FAR W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150012Z - 150145Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS INCREASING WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. AN ADDITIONAL
   TSTM IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF TERRELL COUNTY IN TX. A WEAK TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IN LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTIES IN
   NM SHOULD BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SSE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NM. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION.
   SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE A
   VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SE IN FAR W
   TX...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED...BUT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS
   INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR. A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50 DEW POINTS FROM
   FST TO 6R6 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG LIKELY EXISTS /PER MODIFIED 00Z DRT
   SOUNDING/. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   31220300 30170191 29910240 29540332 29780409 30000454
   30650490 32070622 33240679 34430587 34240517 32350387

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH COASTAL SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...355...
   
   VALID 150134Z - 150230Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF 355 BY 02Z. WW MAY BE
   LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR SOME COASTAL COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO IF
   NECESSARY. SEVERE THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 351 ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
   THE DECLINE. HOWEVER...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS
   OF ERN NC AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 02Z AND PORTIONS OF THIS WW MAY ALSO
   NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED.
   
   THIS EVENING A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH COASTAL SC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
   SHORTLY AFTER 02Z.
   
   FARTHER N...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TRAINING ON QUASISTATIONARY
   FRONT WITH STRONGEST STORMS FROM JOHNSTON COUNTY NEWD TO TYRRELL
   COUNTY. ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND AN
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE.
   OVERALL INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND STORMS
   APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING TO OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THE STABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
   STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME SEVERE THREAT
   MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND WW 351
   EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
   
   34307732 32108118 32968067 33987923 35157855 35857848
   35927725 35977593

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0854 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...356...
   
   VALID 150154Z - 150330Z
   
   CONVECTIVE LINE AND SVR THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF WW 353 BY 0230Z. THUS WW 353 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED
   EARLY...BEFORE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME. SVR THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER
   THE SWRN HALF OF WW 356 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING SWD AROUND 20 KTS
   ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE SRN EDGE OF WW 353. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY
   STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT NO
   ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
   LINE MOVEMENT...THE LAST OF THE MARGINAL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE OUT OF
   WW 353 BY 0230Z.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
   VALLEY WILL POSE THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 356 IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS. STRONG MOIST ELY FLOW /PER SFC AND VWP DATA/ WAS OCCURRING
   NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM KENEDY TO ZAPATA COUNTIES.
   THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR NORTH OF THIS BNDRY /COMBINED WITH WEAK
   AMBIENT MID LEVEL WINDS/ WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MVMNT
   GENERALLY SEWD OR SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ANY STORMS WITH THIS CLUSTER THAT INTERACT WITH
   THE BNDRY MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. PER RADAR IMAGERY A
   SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE LOWER TX COAST
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY. THE PROBABILITY
   OF SVR WEATHER WITH THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...BUT MAY
   INCREASE IF IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF AND REACH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR
   SOUTH OF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AFTER 03Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   28049692 28639924 29020075 28790078 27830003 26670000
   26019771

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0923 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357...
   
   VALID 150223Z - 150430Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL AND SERN NM /NWRN PORTION OF WW 357/ AND INTO
   FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE ELP AREA/ IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL
   SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE
   BIG BEND REGION /SERN PORTION OF WW 357/...AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
   INCREASES.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF WW
   357 AS LOW LEVEL ENELY FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE ELP AREA SEWD INTO THE
   DAVIS MTNS/BIG BEND REGION...WITH MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THE
   GREATEST PRESSURE RISES DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER
   THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE DAVIS MTNS.
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SVR CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS UPSLOPE
   FLOW INCREASES WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN SVR
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NWRN HALF OF WW 357 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HRS WHERE CONVECTION MOVES SSEWD OUT OF THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
   MTNS OF SCENTRAL/SERN NM INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WRN TX. A
   DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT...BUT
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY STRONG
   CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   33380590 32110694 28980252 30260150