Is the GFS EVER right?

[tgenius]

I just seem to read over and over about the GFS being totally off, crazy, inventing things, etc. So I ask, is the GFS ever correct?

[Camille_2_Katrina]

yes... it can be very right... mostly in the 72 hour range though...

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes it can, and usually is right or else they wouldn't use it.
I just would not trust it beyond day 7 though.

[windycity]

if NHC uses it, its gotta be good. I agree, any model beyond 72 hrs usually isnt reliable.

[mike815]

yeah

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM (ETA) is the best here..Especially with mesoscale activity.

[HURAKAN]

Every computer model should be treated with respect, nevertheless, there are some that have a better accuracy than others. I feel that the main problem with computer model is that the same model is not reliable for every tropical cyclone that forms. We always see that in each cyclone there's one that stands out. That's why it's always important to see what each says.

[CHRISTY]

I would say the GFS is pretty reliable inside 72 HRS.

[EDR1222]

I remember reading something written last year about the hurricane models. I can't remember who posted it, but it had some good information about all the models including what each one specifically does and the strong points and weak points about each one. It seemed evident that the GFDL, overall, seems to be about the best at forecasting hurricane movement, albeit inside of 3 days.

[HURAKAN]

The GFDL model is pretty precise except for intensity. It's most of the time over the roof!

[NCHurricane]

I remember reading something written last year about the hurricane models. I can't remember who posted it, but it had some good information about all the models including what each one specifically does and the strong points and weak points about each one. It seemed evident that the GFDL, overall, seems to be about the best at forecasting hurricane movement, albeit inside of 3 days.

Here it is, EDR...

wxman57's Model Post

I was just looking at it a couple of days ago.

[george_r_1961]

According to the pro mets GFS has a problem with convective feedback, which means it overestimates the amount and intensity of any convection located within a low pressure area; therefore sometimes turning cold core lows into warm core ones. The longer the range the more noticeable it is.

[ALhurricane]

The GFS has become a very good guidance tool, but it is just that, another piece of guidance. It has certainly become more reliable, but it has its faults just like any other model.

The NAM-ETA is not to be used for anything tropical. It was never designed to be a tropical model. However, the NAM-ETA is about to be replaced by the WRF NAM (NAM-NMM) in mid June. 'Supposedly' it is going to be another good guidance tool for tropical weather. It will certainly get a good test drive this summer.

[mobilebay]

The GFS has become a very good guidance tool, but it is just that, another piece of guidance. It has certainly become more reliable, but it has its faults just like any other model.

The NAM-ETA is not to be used for anything tropical. It was never designed to be a tropical model. However, the NAM-ETA is about to be replaced by the WRF NAM (NAM-NMM) in mid June. 'Supposedly' it is going to be another good guidance tool for tropical weather. It will certainly get a good test drive this summer.

Thank you for clearing that up about the ETA. I did not want to dispute a pro met but my lord, the ETA? I see you wen't to USA. Did you work with Dr. Bill Williams?

[CHRISTY]

I remember reading something written last year about the hurricane models. I can't remember who posted it, but it had some good information about all the models including what each one specifically does and the strong points and weak points about each one. It seemed evident that the GFDL, overall, seems to be about the best at forecasting hurricane movement, albeit inside of 3 days.

Here it is, EDR...

wxman57's Model Post

I was just looking at it a couple of days ago.

That was great post by wxman57 very helpful!thanks for posting....

[mobilebay]

I remember reading something written last year about the hurricane models. I can't remember who posted it, but it had some good information about all the models including what each one specifically does and the strong points and weak points about each one. It seemed evident that the GFDL, overall, seems to be about the best at forecasting hurricane movement, albeit inside of 3 days.

Here it is, EDR...

wxman57's Model Post

I was just looking at it a couple of days ago.

That was great post by wxman57 very helpful!thanks for posting....

Why the eye roll? If you was referring to me I was not talking about wxman57's post. I was referring to the one by the pro met earlier in the thread.

[hicksta]

You cant trust a model to far out. Cause a little change in the atmosphere that it detects could change the whole scene by a couple hundred miles. What you really want is when the NAM,GFS,GFDL,Candian all match up and say around the same thing. Then you know something is bound to happen.

[ALhurricane]

The GFS has become a very good guidance tool, but it is just that, another piece of guidance. It has certainly become more reliable, but it has its faults just like any other model.

The NAM-ETA is not to be used for anything tropical. It was never designed to be a tropical model. However, the NAM-ETA is about to be replaced by the WRF NAM (NAM-NMM) in mid June. 'Supposedly' it is going to be another good guidance tool for tropical weather. It will certainly get a good test drive this summer.

Thank you for clearing that up about the ETA. I did not want to dispute a pro met but my lord, the ETA? I see you wen't to USA. Did you work with Dr. Bill Williams?

Yes, Dr. Bill was one of my professors and a mentor as well. I loved my time at USA. I owe a lot of thanks to Dr. Bill and the rest of the department!

[CHRISTY]

I remember reading something written last year about the hurricane models. I can't remember who posted it, but it had some good information about all the models including what each one specifically does and the strong points and weak points about each one. It seemed evident that the GFDL, overall, seems to be about the best at forecasting hurricane movement, albeit inside of 3 days.

Here it is, EDR...

wxman57's Model Post

I was just looking at it a couple of days ago.

That was great post by wxman57 very helpful!thanks for posting....

Why the eye roll? If you was referring to me I was not talking about wxman57's post. I was referring to the one by the pro met earlier in the thread.

That was my bad oops!

[Ivanhater]

The GFS has become a very good guidance tool, but it is just that, another piece of guidance. It has certainly become more reliable, but it has its faults just like any other model.

The NAM-ETA is not to be used for anything tropical. It was never designed to be a tropical model. However, the NAM-ETA is about to be replaced by the WRF NAM (NAM-NMM) in mid June. 'Supposedly' it is going to be another good guidance tool for tropical weather. It will certainly get a good test drive this summer.

Thank you for clearing that up about the ETA. I did not want to dispute a pro met but my lord, the ETA? I see you wen't to USA. Did you work with Dr. Bill Williams?

Yes, Dr. Bill was one of my professors and a mentor as well. I loved my time at USA. I owe a lot of thanks to Dr. Bill and the rest of the department!

Amen! Great guy and great department, I just finished up my first year at USA and am looking forward to the future. These people actually care about the students.