Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray May 31 Outlook=17/9/5

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 31, 2006 5:24 am

As I did with the NOAA outlook the thread will remain locked until the May 31 outlook is released around 10 AM EDT.After that the thread will open for the members to post their opinions about what the Colorado State University folks has in terms of the numbers and the steering forecast.

:darrow:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... /june2006/

:uarrow:

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:23 am

Ok thread is open for comments about the numbers and about the steering forecast.

Janice · #3 Postby **Janice** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:28 am

Yes, looks like we are in for a really busy season. Hope everyone is prepared.

Extremeweatherguy · #4 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:31 am

Keep in mind that last year on May 31st he predicted 15 named storms and we saw 28! Also, last year at this point he predicted the east coast to see more activity than the Gulf (similar to what he thinks this year). He was also wrong there.

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:35 am

Sticking to the original forecast.

CHRISTY · #6 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:37 am

From what i have taken from this update is that the GULF has a lower chance this year of seeing activity,but the EASTCOAST especially florida is a different story,the entire eastcoast needs to be ready this season because it seems to me we will probably take the brunt of the activity this year according to bill gray. :wink:

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:39 am

I just finished to read the steering forecast and really they did a great job on that.It looks like the East Coast will be a little more vunerable in 2006.

CHRISTY · #8 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:41 am

I think he's now added 2004 as one of his analog years?

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:50 am

Like I was expecting, no change at all!

I just hope for 18 fish storms so my name could be use this year!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #10 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:50 am

It looks like, from what I have read, that the western Gulf is the favored landfall area for the gulf this year.

Jim Hughes · #11 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Wed May 31, 2006 9:53 am

They write all of this up before hand so I guess they have missed the recent SOI swing. Maybe they felt that it was meaningless so they left their incorrect comments about it being positive in there.

The 30 day average was moderately positive around 30 days ago. Like it had been for the prior few months. But it has recently done a 180 degree turn around and the positive trend has weakened consideraly. Just like it's SST counterpart did.

It currently is at -8.0 . This would be equal to about -.8 in NOAA's standardized version. The 90 day average is still running positive but it has been cut in half the past month.

#12 Postby **OuterBanker** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:04 am

Hmmm, no change from Dec or Apr in numbers of storms. Can't think of a time in which no change occured in numbers. Must be awfully confident this year. One rather dubious change though. East coast landfall probs went up, gulf down. Steering forecast also rather ominous. May as well stir up a hornets nest. JB said the same thing about a month ago :cheesy:

MiamiensisWx · #13 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:08 am

Just to clarify, I think the reason why 2004 was used as an analog here is because they expect this year to have, track-wise, an active Cape Verde season with ridging out in the Atlantic, similar to 2004; however, I see NO PLACE in the outlook where Florida is specifically mentioned as a prime target (although it is mentioned, along with the eastern U.S. coast, as being under the gun in general due to the general patterns).

#14 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:12 am

OuterBanker wrote:Hmmm, no change from Dec or Apr in numbers of storms. Can't think of a time in which no change occured in numbers. Must be awfully confident this year. One rather dubious change though. East coast landfall probs went up, gulf down. Steering forecast also rather ominous. May as well stir up a hornets nest. JB said the same thing about a month ago

If it comes to pass, stirring up a hornet's nest could prove to be the least of your worries. :eek:

MiamiensisWx · #15 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:17 am

BayouVenteux wrote:If it comes to pass, stirring up a hornet's nest could prove to be the least of your worries.

I agree, unfortunately.

:eek:

#16 Postby **seaswing** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:23 am

Like 2004 season? 2004 caused havoc in Florida. Mentioning this and then making no correlation to Florida (directly) makes you wonder what exactly are they saying? 2004 was the year of Florida hurricanes! :eek:

Are they saying like 2004 but more northward? the Bermuda high sat just east of Florida for the second half of the hurricane season. Could this be the trend again this year?

#17 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:23 am

I think it was a very good forecast personally with the Negative NAO and weak to neutral La Nina patterns. I personally agree that this will not be another Gulf Coast year. Now I guess we just have to wait and see what happens.

#18 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:25 am

my question is why can somebody in colorado make a tropical forecast?

another thing i see is they are looking at the arctic region as a predictor, why?

#19 Postby **tgenius** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:27 am

Ok, so based on what I read, South FL (read:Miami) has a 14 percent chance for TS force wind and about a 32 percent chance for Low Hurricane force wind.. obviously these are only predictions..but I like those numbers!

#20 Postby **JPmia** » Wed May 31, 2006 10:28 am

I dunno, I didn't see any information that they have not discussed before. Did I read it too fast?

Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray May 31 Outlook=17/9/5

Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray May 31 Outlook=17/9/5

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