Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[x-y-no]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Is it because you live in Fl. ?

Derek Ortt is seriously the wrong target to aim that kind of jibe at. There's no more expert hurricane forcaster participating on this site, that's for sure. Check out his verifications from last year (links posted in the analysis forum).

[tgenius]

Um.. these are conflicting posts.. lol

[max]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Is it because you live in Fl. ?

Derek Ortt is seriously the wrong target to aim that kind of jibe at. There's no more expert hurricane forcaster participating on this site, that's for sure. Check out his verifications from last year (links posted in the analysis forum).

Mother nature controls human beings. She does whatever she pleases.

[gtalum]

Yeah, Derek Ortt is THE MAN when it comes to Storm2k weather forecasting.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

This system will not move east of S FL . Either over us or west of us.

[gtalum]

Mother nature controls human beings. She does whatever she pleases.

"Mother Nature" is nothing but a construct of physics and chaos theory.

[Scorpion]

South Florida is NOT going to get anything but a little rain from this.

[gatorcane]

its the second law of thermodynamics - everything is moving to a state of increased entropy.

I do think South Florida will get alot of rain out of this since it will be on the east side.

[southerngale]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Is it because you live in Fl. ?

Derek Ortt is seriously the wrong target to aim that kind of jibe at. There's no more expert hurricane forcaster participating on this site, that's for sure. Check out his verifications from last year (links posted in the analysis forum).

Mother nature controls human beings. She does whatever she pleases.

max, you REALLY need to think about what you want to post before posting it. Then think some more.

[boca]

Scorpion can you put some reasoning behind the statement. The system is 300 miles across.

[Thunder44]

Buoy 42056 is now reporting ESE winds while Bouy 42057 is reporting SSE winds now. It looks whatever low-level circulation that was trying too form and close off this morning, has opened back up to a broad low pressure area this afternoon. There seem be mutiple mid-level swirls showing up. I doubt we will see a TD very soon until a true closed low-level circulation consolidates.

[CHRISTY]

guess iam not a pro met but i will say this everyone needs to watch this system because we still dont know were its going.but if LLC center continues to shift east i think this increases the bad weather for south florida.once the recon goes in there tomorrow we will have a much better idea whats going on.

Here's a IR loop of 90L....

[Noles2006]

Definitely does not look as "good" as it did this morning.

[Scorpion]

I sure hope not. We don't need anymore rain.

[boca]

Its drifting slowly north. Well get rain for sure.

[southerngale]

hopefully everyone has read this...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

I don't think so, Frick.

If you haven't, might I suggest everyone read it? Thank you.

[Portastorm]

Buoy 42056 is now reporting ESE winds while Bouy 42057 is reporting SSE winds now. It looks whatever low-level circulation that was trying too form and close off this morning, has opened back up to a broad low pressure area this afternoon. There seem be mutiple mid-level swirls showing up. I doubt we will see a TD very soon until a true closed low-level circulation consolidates.

Nice, timely post Thunder44! Very interesting.

I might point out to everyone that this is exactly what seasoned pro mets like Wxman57 and AirForceMet were saying earlier today that this system is going to take several days to organize (if at all) into a named system.

[Trader Ron]

We could use some rain in SWFL.

[rockyman]

Keep in mind that just because the center MIGHT reform to the east (again), this does not mean that the system is MOVING east...and, in fact, almost every model shows a NNW movement from the starting gate.

[Cape Verde]

I might point out to everyone that this is exactly what seasoned pro mets like Wxman57 and AirForceMet were saying earlier today that this system is going to take several days to organize (if at all) into a named system.

I don't even pretend to be a weather forecaster, but it sure looks to me on the visible loops as if circulation is trying to form.

Maybe that's just chaos or maybe the loop has more delay than I realize, but I'm not at all convinced that it will take several days to form.