Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#301 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:20 pm

Cape Verde -- I thought earlier it looked that way, but in recent shots it looked like that development had stopped...
0 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1299
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

#302 Postby robbielyn » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:25 pm

I say center is located 18n 85w. convection is already wrapping around this. you can see it on the goes water vapor loop and ir loop. It will form into something weather channel talks about this several times an hour telling fl to be prepared for this and that by mon or tues we could be looking at ts in the gulf. :)
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

Derek Ortt

#303 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:26 pm

it still does appear to be forming something, on very close up GARP loops. However, the incipient circulation is well away from the deepest convection
0 likes   

User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#304 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:26 pm

Okay, I've been staring at these loops for too long. Whenever I zoom in on the area and speed up the loops, I swear I see many circulations. I'm just going to take a step back for a few hours...
0 likes   

User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#305 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:29 pm

Derek -- whereabout would you estimate the developing center to be?
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#306 Postby boca » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:29 pm

Derek knows so well see.
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#307 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:30 pm

Last edited by CHRISTY on Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#308 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:31 pm

CHRISTY wrote:This already a well defined anticyclone over the system...SEE

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html


This is not the Christy of last year..If it is you have hit the books big time this winter! LOL Proud of you
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#309 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:33 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:This already a well defined anticyclone over the system...SEE

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html


This is not the Christy of last year..If it is you have hit the books big time this winter! LOL Proud of you


thanks for the comment.by the way yes it is. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#310 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:34 pm

NAM, 48 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif


*edited by staff to make image clickable because it was so big, everyone had to scroll across to read every post :)
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#311 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:34 pm

about 18.0N and 85.1W
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#312 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:35 pm

guys please thumbnails. :wink:
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#313 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:36 pm

I think I see a possible new developing center of circulation. Look in the middle of this loop. There seems to be a spin just to the southwest of the main convective mass getting shoved east-northeast. South of the possible developing center, a new burst of convection has occurred. Looks like it may be getting a bit more organized, and now that the center may be reforming and new convection may be firing south of it and near it, the shear could actually help it's outflow while the center moves slowly northward to north-northeast. Does anyone notice this?
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#314 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:36 pm

robbielyn wrote:I say center is located 18n 85w. convection is already wrapping around this. you can see it on the goes water vapor loop and ir loop. It will form into something weather channel talks about this several times an hour telling fl to be prepared for this and that by mon or tues we could be looking at ts in the gulf. :)


Yeah, I agree. The lowest pressures are just east of the Yucatan about 1007mb and there are WNW winds in Roatan, Honduras. But it's not completely closed yet. The swirl over the Cayman Islands is just a MLC and I don't think that will be a LLC reforming there soon.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
saints63213
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 40
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:07 pm

#315 Postby saints63213 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:37 pm

throwing out a question what are the odds of two systems coming out of this area?
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#316 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:38 pm

saints63213 wrote:throwing out a question what are the odds of two systems coming out of this area?


Zero..
0 likes   

User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

#317 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:38 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Okay, I've been staring at these loops for too long. Whenever I zoom in on the area and speed up the loops, I swear I see many circulations. I'm just going to take a step back for a few hours...


Might as well. We're all so anxious about the hurricane season that we want all the answers right now.

We tend to forget the inherent levels of uncertainty in predicting more than a few hours ahead.

This developing storm is what it is, and there is plenty of time to take a long look at it long before it threatens anyone, if it even does that.

Right now, it's raining over the open ocean 150 miles away from anything, and there's no reason for me or anyone else to expect something dramatic to happen this afternoon.

(I'm talking to myself as much as anyone here. I suspect that if I didn't come back to this forum until Sunday, everything would still be uncertain.)

It's fun and educational to watch storms early in their development, but sometimes it can also be like watching paint dry. :wink:
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#318 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:38 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I think I see a possible new developing center of circulation. Look in the middle of this loop. There seems to be a spin just to the southwest of the main convective mass getting shoved east-northeast. South of the possible developing center, a new burst of convection has occurred. Looks like it may be getting a bit more organized, and now that the center may be reforming and new convection may be firing south of it and near it, the shear could actually help it's outflow while the center moves slowly northward to north-northeast. Does anyone notice this?


check this loop out capeverdewave...looks like some banding maybe!i know it sounds funny its not even TD yet but it just a thought. :wink:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#319 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:39 pm

Sorry, correction... I really still think the actual low center/potential developing LLC is off Belize and to the north of the Honduras coastline that many are looking at. The swirl I was looking at in my last post is not in the right synoptics to develop.
0 likes   

User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#320 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:41 pm

CVWave -- I saw that earlier when I made my post about seeing multiple "swirls"... that does look interesting!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy and 66 guests