Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[senorpepr]

This already a well defined anticyclone over the system...SEE

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

visible loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Well... I don't think the anticyclone is as well defined as that site shows. After doing some hand analysis earlier and comparing to what the NHC has on their page, it looks like it's still a diffluent asympote, but not quite a full anticyclone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

[skysummit]

18z GFS at 66 hours.....

[Opal storm]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

That actually sounds right.This will most likely go north of S FL,towards CFL and the Big Bend area.

[gatorcane]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

Well most of the models keep it in the Se/central GOM and it will most likely be lopsided..so that sounds about right Too much shear for this to become anything more than a rainmaker.

I would not doubt the SE GOM and NW Caribbean - remember what most said about Wilma and it ended up being a CAT 3. Many said too much shear, not good conditions etc. The shear is not supposed to be that high in the SE GOM so if it stay more southerly it could develop pretty quickly.

[cycloneye]

Question...Would NHC make this a TD prior to the recon flight, if it looked good on the sat. or do they usually wait for the recon flight?

If surface observations and ship observations along with satellite estimates support the criteria of a TD they can classify it before recon goes tommorow afternoon.

[SWFLA_CANE]

thanks

[senorpepr]

It's so funny when people start reading products not intended for the public (ie. TCFAs) and start flying their freak flags...

Just relax and continue to monitor the situation. This will probably be a threat to the US Gulf Coast (somewhere), as it stands now. Although there is a chance that this will not develop. It's too early, especially with a developing system. Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

Why do you say it can't develop into a major hurricane - there really isn't much going against it? It has high SSTs low shear. In fact just a couple of days ago it was not going to develop and be some feature in the BOC. You look at it now and is is rather impressive for June....

It's not really a perfect situation. The waters isn't tremendously warm -- they are near average. The shear will decrease, but should increase again. Climatology doesn't support a major hurricane. There are plenty of things against a major hurricane. A tropical depression -- sure. A tropical storm -- maybe. A major hurricane -- simmer down, I say!

[CHRISTY]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

That actually sounds right.This will most likely go north of S FL,towards CFL and the Big Bend area.

actually greg sitzer said once it reaches the ucatan it may in 3 diffrernt ways .it may move North NNE or ENE. so south fllorida is not out of the woods.

[Bgator]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

That actually sounds right.This will most likely go north of S FL,towards CFL and the Big Bend area.

I have lost some respect for channel 10, they just started to tick me off, but all channels are saying more rain for us at least, up to 7 inches!

[senorpepr]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

Well most of the models keep it in the Se/central GOM and it will most likely be lopsided..so that sounds about right Too much shear for this to become anything more than a rainmaker.

I would not doubt the SE GOM and NW Caribbean - remember what most said about Wilma and it ended up being a CAT 3. Many said too much shear, not good conditions etc. The shear is not supposed to be that high in the SE GOM so if it stay more southerly it could develop pretty quickly.

You can't really compare the October conditions in place for Wilma and the early June conditions in place now.

[gatorcane]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

Well most of the models keep it in the Se/central GOM and it will most likely be lopsided..so that sounds about right Too much shear for this to become anything more than a rainmaker.

I would not doubt the SE GOM and NW Caribbean - remember what most said about Wilma and it ended up being a CAT 3. Many said too much shear, not good conditions etc. The shear is not supposed to be that high in the SE GOM so if it stay more southerly it could develop pretty quickly.

You can't really compare the October conditions in place for Wilma and the early June conditions in place now.

Actually the October conditions were worse since the trough was very powerful - so many thought it would really weaken Wilma but Wilma actually missed the stronger shear to the north and strengthened. I think conditions now are better than Oct 24th of last year.

[gatorcane]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

Well most of the models keep it in the Se/central GOM and it will most likely be lopsided..so that sounds about right Too much shear for this to become anything more than a rainmaker.

I would not doubt the SE GOM and NW Caribbean - remember what most said about Wilma and it ended up being a CAT 3. Many said too much shear, not good conditions etc. The shear is not supposed to be that high in the SE GOM so if it stay more southerly it could develop pretty quickly.

You can't really compare the October conditions in place for Wilma and the early June conditions in place now.

Actually the October conditions were worse since the trough was very powerful - so many thought it would really weaken Wilma but Wilma actually missed the stronger shear to the north and strengthened. I think conditions now are better than Oct 24th of last year.

The BIG difference is that Wilma was a record-breaking hurricane in the current position this system is in...

[Bgator]

Looking at Visible againit looks like the LLC is straight south the extreme west tip of Cuba, this is what i see to me, and it is not moving NW or NNW more N or NNE, so i dont know, i want to see the models when they actually have a center designated by the NHC...The more east the more east the system should go! Does anyone else see this LLC? Or is it somewhere else...so about 18.5N 85W...?!

EDIT: Now that i look at it it looks more like 84W

[MiamiensisWx]

18Z GFS at 90 hours...

[senorpepr]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

Well most of the models keep it in the Se/central GOM and it will most likely be lopsided..so that sounds about right Too much shear for this to become anything more than a rainmaker.

I would not doubt the SE GOM and NW Caribbean - remember what most said about Wilma and it ended up being a CAT 3. Many said too much shear, not good conditions etc. The shear is not supposed to be that high in the SE GOM so if it stay more southerly it could develop pretty quickly.

You can't really compare the October conditions in place for Wilma and the early June conditions in place now.

Actually the October conditions were worse since the trough was very powerful - so many thought it would really weaken Wilma but Wilma actually missed the stronger shear to the north and strengthened. I think conditions now are better than Oct 24th of last year.

The BIG difference is that Wilma was a record-breaking hurricane in the current position this system is in...

Well... I respectfully disagree, especially regarding a June system from a shearline.

[HURAKAN]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

Roatan, Honduras, has been reporting west to WNW winds since 8 AM this morning.

[CHRISTY]

This is clearly a tropical depression or tropical storm. Again NHC is being too conservative like usual.

Anyways Im issuing recommended hurricane watches for parts of Florida and Cuba.

I think a cat2 is possible out of this into central florida like Tampa area.

Dont see that happening....5 %chance

[rockyman]

This is clearly a tropical depression or tropical storm. Again NHC is being too conservative like usual.

Anyways Im issuing recommended hurricane watches for parts of Florida and Cuba.

I think a cat2 is possible out of this into central florida like Tampa area.

Oh boy you did it....this is a violation of our rules here. New members should read the posting rules, they are important.

The Soul Patrol would never have committed such an egregious act.

[Recurve]

The Boston post is interesting.
I haven't seen all the fronts/highs forecasts, just looking at the GFDL run was interesting -- make a heck of an extratropical low up the east coast. Course it's far out, and nothing's formed yet.

Anything to say about the weakness that will let (whatever develops) go north? How certain shear will keep a lid on development?

Lost my link to the good shear graphics, think it was Indiana or Iowa that posted the winds at all heights in great color graphics.

[HURAKAN]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

Roatan, Honduras, has been reporting west to WNW winds since 8 AM this morning.