Tropical Storm Alberto

WindRunner · #521 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:26 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ronjon wrote:Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
yeah, it looks like a very slow NW drift from that loop. I agree, it will be very interesting to see the 11am advisory.

Recon fixes have it moving 16.5 miles perfectly NNW in just over 2 hours.
That's about 7kts at 340.

Extremeweatherguy · #522 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:27 am

If you look at the center movement on visible with a track overlay on top...you can see that it is clearly west of the forecasted (5am) track and seems to be heading even further away from it. At 11am...I would expect the new path to be in the panhandle of Florida or westward.

Extremeweatherguy · #523 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:28 am

WindRunner wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ronjon wrote:Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
yeah, it looks like a very slow NW drift from that loop. I agree, it will be very interesting to see the 11am advisory.

Recon fixes have it moving 16.5 miles perfectly NNW in just over 2 hours.
That's about 7kts at 340.

The bad news is that if this does not turn, that brings the storm into central LA!

cmdebbie · #524 Postby **cmdebbie** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:28 am

I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!!

I agree! I just heard TWC state that the chances of this becoming a TS are slim. If they only knew. :roll:

weatherwindow · #525 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:29 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:What does a 50 kt. flight level wind translate to at the surface?

.....flt level 1500 ft.....50kts x .75 ~38kts.....rich

Weatherfreak14 · #526 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:29 am

yes, i just relized that. OMG NO.. please not in new orleans.

#527 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:29 am

cmdebbie wrote:
I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!!

I agree! I just heard TWC state that the chances of this becoming a TS are slim. If they only knew.

They are always behind!!! :lol:

They should start logging more frequently to S2K!!!

Cape Verde · #528 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:30 am

Has anyone else ever seen a tropical storm where the shear has basically eliminated the W/2 of the system, yet it continues to exist?

Look at the loop. This is incredible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#529 Postby **seaswing** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:30 am

cmdebbie wrote:
I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!!

I agree! I just heard TWC state that the chances of this becoming a TS are slim. If they only knew.

NBCintern · #530 Postby **NBCintern** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:32 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ronjon wrote:Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
yeah, it looks like a very slow NW drift from that loop. I agree, it will be very interesting to see the 11am advisory.

Recon fixes have it moving 16.5 miles perfectly NNW in just over 2 hours.
That's about 7kts at 340.
The bad news is that if this does not turn, that brings the storm into central LA!

Dude, I am a newbie and even I know your suggested path is bogus. The shear is tremondous on its NW QUADRANT..

#531 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:33 am

New pops look like they're trying to fire just north of the center. Let's see if they can continue and not get torn apart. Earlier this morning, they just got obliterated.

Bgator · #532 Postby **Bgator** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:33 am

New Dvorak:
11/1145 UTC 23.6N 87.2W T2.0/2.0 01L -- Atlantic Ocean

2.0! 8-)

#533 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:38 am

10 am is out....
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

28_Storms · #534 Postby **28_Storms** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:38 am

NHC didn't change the track much.

Dustin · #535 Postby **Dustin** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:39 am

Well the storm still looks VERY lopsided.

#536 Postby **EmeraldCoast1** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:40 am

Cape Verde wrote:Has anyone else ever seen a tropical storm where the shear has basically eliminated the W/2 of the system, yet it continues to exist?

Yeah. It sure looks like if it were not for the shear this depression would likely be a quite healthy TS or even a week hurricane. Impressive satellite images of a convectionless pinwheel.

#537 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:44 am

175 mile radius for TS winds? wow! SFL still might be put under TS Watch!

wzrgirl1 · #538 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:44 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:175 mile radius for TS winds? wow! SFL still might be put under TS Watch!

No won't happen

cmdebbie · #539 Postby **cmdebbie** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:45 am

TWC also said that if this stays on the current projected track that Tampa and south will receive most of the rain (not that I believe everything they say). Is this true? I was hoping that we here in the Orlando area would get a lot of much needed rain. :eek:

#540 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:46 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:175 mile radius for TS winds? wow! SFL still might be put under TS Watch!

No won't happen

Tropical Storm Alberto

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