Tropical Storm Alberto

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Portastorm
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#581 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:24 am

wxman57 wrote:Well, looks like both model scenarios were right. The deep layer models took it to Florida, shallow to Tampico. Now the squalls are moving to Florida and the remnant LLC will probably move westward. BAMS takes it to Tampico, just where it looked like it might go last Thursday.

One good thing is that at the end of the 2006 season when I'm writing up my review of the season, nobody will remember poor ol' weak Alberto. ;-)


Good point 57. I do recall the model scenarios several days back that took the system into Mexico. How interesting.

Should we have much concern over the LLC? With the dry air entrenched and westerlies forecasted to increase ... it'll probably get shared apart, right?
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#582 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:26 am

It almost looks like the LLC is slowly drifting south now. Am I seeing things? or is this actually happening? Here is the visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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#583 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:27 am

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Well, looks like both model scenarios were right. The deep layer models took it to Florida, shallow to Tampico. Now the squalls are moving to Florida and the remnant LLC will probably move westward. BAMS takes it to Tampico, just where it looked like it might go last Thursday.

One good thing is that at the end of the 2006 season when I'm writing up my review of the season, nobody will remember poor ol' weak Alberto. ;-)


I don't know, the low doesn't seem to be moving west anymore


It may not move much at all for days, just sit there and spin down as westerly shear increases.


I can agree with that, If this doesn't get its act together today, this will be a non-event.
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#584 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:29 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:It almost looks like the LLC is slowly drifting south now. Am I seeing things? or is this actually happening? Here is the visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


I think that is just a smaller vortex inside the larger circulation, but at this point, who knows :roll:
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#585 Postby weatherwoman132 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:31 am

lol. youre right about that.
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#586 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:31 am

Portastorm wrote:
Good point 57. I do recall the model scenarios several days back that took the system into Mexico. How interesting.

Should we have much concern over the LLC? With the dry air entrenched and westerlies forecasted to increase ... it'll probably get shared apart, right?


Nah, high shear, bone dry air, it'll just be an irritant.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#587 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:31 am

By the way, how far south is the trough that will "pick up" Alberto go. I hope it doesn't stall in the NW Caribbean and in a week or so, everything repeats itself!!! 8-)
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#588 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:32 am

HURAKAN wrote:By the way, how far south is the trough that will "pick up" Alberto go. I hope it doesn't stall in the NW Caribbean and in a week or so, everything repeats itself!!! 8-)
lol. that would be crazy. The June storm that would never die.
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#589 Postby AZS » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:32 am

Image
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#590 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:37 am

A very curious storm:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg
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#591 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:39 am

Where is the center right now because I cn't find one on this system.
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#592 Postby weatherwoman132 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:39 am

isnt the center right in the middle of the box under 25? if you know what I'm talking about. lol
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#593 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:40 am

What a weird situation. At this point, I would not be surprised if ANYTHING happened. Brownsville to Key West...watch this closely.
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#594 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:41 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:What a weird situation. At this point, I would not be surprised if ANYTHING happened. Brownsville to Key West...watch this closely.


Or maybe no one!!!
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#595 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:42 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Looks like shear in front of this system (except for Florida) should be favorable for a little strengthening.
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#596 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:42 am

good morning all. Welcome TS Alberto!!! Looks like the trough is really going to shunt it NE as the models have shifted right over the night...
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#597 Postby jasons2k » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:42 am

Let's lower the drama meter just a tad. It's going to get sheared to bits and like Wxman57 said, at the end of the season we'll barely remember Alberto.
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#598 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:43 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:What a weird situation. At this point, I would not be surprised if ANYTHING happened. Brownsville to Key West...watch this closely.


Or maybe no one!!!
oh yeah, I forgot that one. Really anything could happen.
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#599 Postby Rainband » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:43 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:What a weird situation. At this point, I would not be surprised if ANYTHING happened. Brownsville to Key West...watch this closely.
Dry air. If this thing doesn't survivein the EGOM. It will not survive moving west. :wink:
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#600 Postby Frank P » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:43 am

good question, you can see the mini vortex rotating around the bottom of what appears to be a larger broad center (its (mini vortex) is moving to the SE and looks about to be absorbed within the system), but I can't pinpoint an exact center using the GOES vis loops, its somewhere above the mini vortex best guess... center is broad at the moment... this thing is still UGLY...
Last edited by Frank P on Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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