Tropical Storm Alberto

[Aquawind]

Dang Chris.. Long weekend...bummage for the family life.. life as a Met..

[wxman57]

SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.

[stormtruth]

It appears that the thunderstorm burst about 60 miles NNE of the center is on the edge of a small eddy that is moving to the west around the larger LLC. I think the shear will get it soon and knock it down.

Hopefully, Alberto will be dead in the next day or so. I had to work 23 hours this weekend because of this stupid swirl and now I get no days off next week to compensate.

You've been talking about it dying for hours now and it hasn't happened. Instead of dying there is new convection. Even on the Dvorak IR there is more convection there on the SW side than there was several hours ago:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Lol, about this time yesterday everyone was going on about how TD1 should be downgraded, and it would poof this morning.

Anywho, nice rotation. Such a pretty storm.

It is very pretty! It's my new desktop background.

[Ivanhater]

It appears that the thunderstorm burst about 60 miles NNE of the center is on the edge of a small eddy that is moving to the west around the larger LLC. I think the shear will get it soon and knock it down.

Hopefully, Alberto will be dead in the next day or so. I had to work 23 hours this weekend because of this stupid swirl and now I get no days off next week to compensate.

Hey, I want the rain, I'm doing sprinkler systems for my summer job so I could get some time off with the rain

[HurricaneHunter914]

The cloud cover continues to grow over the center. Looks like Alberto refuses to die.

[Stratusxpeye]

SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.

In this scenarion what happeans? Alberto just sits in the center gulf and dies? And the actuall system the bands of rain and wind move through florida and dissapate?

[Opal storm]

It appears that the thunderstorm burst about 60 miles NNE of the center is on the edge of a small eddy that is moving to the west around the larger LLC. I think the shear will get it soon and knock it down.

Hopefully, Alberto will be dead in the next day or so. I had to work 23 hours this weekend because of this stupid swirl and now I get no days off next week to compensate.

Hey, I want the rain, I'm doing sprinkler systems for my summer so I could get some time off with the rain

LOL I want the rain too ivanhater but I don't think we're going to get much (if any) from this unfortunately, unless more convection blows up on the western side of the storm becuase that's the side we'll be on.

[Ivanhater]

ya Opal, always the next one though. I want rain!!

[HURAKAN]

A FEW HOURS AGO:



NOW:



THE NE Quadrant is taking all the glory!!!

[wxman57]

SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.

In this scenarion what happeans? Alberto just sits in the center gulf and dies? And the actuall system the bands of rain and wind move through florida and dissapate?

It's possible a new non-tropical low could form off the east coast in the squalls and the "old" LLC will just wander around the central Gulf for 3-4 days. I'd be more than happy if it just shot NE across Florida and I could stop tracking it, but I'm afraid it'll leave that LLC behind to bother me most of this week.

[whereverwx]

Here's another comparison.

Before (invest):


After:


The LLC is much more established than it was before, but there’s not very much convection over the center.

[wxman57]

A FEW HOURS AGO:



NOW:



THE NE Quadrant is taking all the glory!!!

That convective burst to the NE is associated with a westward-moving vorticity max and associated small surface eddy. It'll most likely dissipate in the next few hours, at least we can hope it will.

Nobody really WANTS this to inteisify, do you? Go away, Alberto!

[CHRISTY]

[Thunder44]

The broad center looks more elongated and diffuse then it did earlier, and it's tough to find a true center within on visible images. I see a number low-level vortices spinning around. I wonder if it relocated further north closer to developing thunderstorms on the North side.

[Ivanhater]

However wxman, There is another vortmax coming from the southwest to meet the new convection.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Alberto is trying hard though. There's more convection near the center than there was before.

[wxman57]

However wxman, There is another vortmax coming from the southwest to meet the new convection.

Yeah, that's the same small eddy/vort max that was rotating around the west and south side of the LLC earlier today. Seems to be shearing-out and elongating, though.

[Ivanhater]

However wxman, There is another vortmax coming from the southwest to meet the new convection.

Yeah, that's the same small eddy/vort max that was rotating around the west and south side of the LLC earlier today. Seems to be shearing-out and elongating, though.

True

[HurricaneHunter914]

Does that mean this TS is Organizing?