Tropical Storm Alberto

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Aquawind
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#881 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:35 pm

Dang Chris.. Long weekend...bummage for the family life.. life as a Met..
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#882 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:36 pm

CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

Image


The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.
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#883 Postby stormtruth » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:Image


It appears that the thunderstorm burst about 60 miles NNE of the center is on the edge of a small eddy that is moving to the west around the larger LLC. I think the shear will get it soon and knock it down.

Hopefully, Alberto will be dead in the next day or so. I had to work 23 hours this weekend because of this stupid swirl and now I get no days off next week to compensate. ;-)


You've been talking about it dying for hours now and it hasn't happened. Instead of dying there is new convection. Even on the Dvorak IR there is more convection there on the SW side than there was several hours ago:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg
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#884 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:37 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Lol, about this time yesterday everyone was going on about how TD1 should be downgraded, and it would poof this morning.

Anywho, nice rotation. Such a pretty storm.


It is very pretty! It's my new desktop background. :D
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#885 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:Image


It appears that the thunderstorm burst about 60 miles NNE of the center is on the edge of a small eddy that is moving to the west around the larger LLC. I think the shear will get it soon and knock it down.

Hopefully, Alberto will be dead in the next day or so. I had to work 23 hours this weekend because of this stupid swirl and now I get no days off next week to compensate. ;-)


Hey, I want the rain, I'm doing sprinkler systems for my summer job so I could get some time off with the rain :wink: :lol:
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#886 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:38 pm

The cloud cover continues to grow over the center. Looks like Alberto refuses to die.
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#887 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

Image


The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.


In this scenarion what happeans? Alberto just sits in the center gulf and dies? And the actuall system the bands of rain and wind move through florida and dissapate?
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#888 Postby Opal storm » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:40 pm

ivanhater wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:Image


It appears that the thunderstorm burst about 60 miles NNE of the center is on the edge of a small eddy that is moving to the west around the larger LLC. I think the shear will get it soon and knock it down.

Hopefully, Alberto will be dead in the next day or so. I had to work 23 hours this weekend because of this stupid swirl and now I get no days off next week to compensate. ;-)


Hey, I want the rain, I'm doing sprinkler systems for my summer so I could get some time off with the rain :wink: :lol:
LOL I want the rain too ivanhater but I don't think we're going to get much (if any) from this unfortunately, unless more convection blows up on the western side of the storm becuase that's the side we'll be on.
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#889 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:41 pm

ya Opal, always the next one though. I want rain!!
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#890 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:42 pm

A FEW HOURS AGO:

Image

NOW:

Image

THE NE Quadrant is taking all the glory!!!
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#891 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:47 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

Image


The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.


In this scenarion what happeans? Alberto just sits in the center gulf and dies? And the actuall system the bands of rain and wind move through florida and dissapate?


It's possible a new non-tropical low could form off the east coast in the squalls and the "old" LLC will just wander around the central Gulf for 3-4 days. I'd be more than happy if it just shot NE across Florida and I could stop tracking it, but I'm afraid it'll leave that LLC behind to bother me most of this week.
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#892 Postby whereverwx » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:48 pm

Here's another comparison.

Before (invest):
Image Image

After:
Image Image

The LLC is much more established than it was before, but there’s not very much convection over the center.
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#893 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:51 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A FEW HOURS AGO:

Image

NOW:

Image

THE NE Quadrant is taking all the glory!!!


That convective burst to the NE is associated with a westward-moving vorticity max and associated small surface eddy. It'll most likely dissipate in the next few hours, at least we can hope it will.

Nobody really WANTS this to inteisify, do you? Go away, Alberto! ;-)
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#894 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:51 pm

Image
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#895 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:52 pm

The broad center looks more elongated and diffuse then it did earlier, and it's tough to find a true center within on visible images. I see a number low-level vortices spinning around. I wonder if it relocated further north closer to developing thunderstorms on the North side.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#896 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:53 pm

However wxman, There is another vortmax coming from the southwest to meet the new convection.
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#897 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:53 pm

Alberto is trying hard though. There's more convection near the center than there was before.
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#898 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 5:00 pm

ivanhater wrote:However wxman, There is another vortmax coming from the southwest to meet the new convection.


Yeah, that's the same small eddy/vort max that was rotating around the west and south side of the LLC earlier today. Seems to be shearing-out and elongating, though.
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#899 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 5:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:However wxman, There is another vortmax coming from the southwest to meet the new convection.


Yeah, that's the same small eddy/vort max that was rotating around the west and south side of the LLC earlier today. Seems to be shearing-out and elongating, though.


True
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#900 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 5:03 pm

Does that mean this TS is Organizing?
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