Tropical Storm Alberto

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NewOrleansMeteorologist

#1061 Postby NewOrleansMeteorologist » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:04 pm

NHC has a hard time changing its original track. They love forecasting Texas and Florida landfalls for some reason.
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28_Storms
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#1062 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:06 pm

It'll be interesting to see how much the vertical shear relaxes.
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SouthFloridawx
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#1063 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:06 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Here are is the 00Z model guidance...

Image


Those models that were posted before were a bit old this is the 00Z runs
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#1064 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:06 pm

NewOrleansMeteorologist wrote:NHC has a hard time changing its original track. They love forecasting Texas and Florida landfalls for some reason.
They also are usually very resistant in changing a track. I remember during Rita having the track shift about 50 miles east with each update instead of making the change all at once.
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#1065 Postby spinfan4eva » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:07 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Here are is the 00Z model guidance...

Image


Those models that were posted before were a bit old this is the 00Z runs


Yes, for the 12th day of June
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#1066 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:07 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Here are is the 00Z model guidance...

Image


Those models that were posted before were a bit old this is the 00Z runs


these still all look north of the NHC track.
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#1067 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:08 pm

Please post the GFDL model please.
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#1068 Postby whereverwx » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:09 pm

What's that red dot? :( lol
Image
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Scorpion

#1069 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:09 pm

Nice to get some more convection closer to the center.
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#1070 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:09 pm

28_Storms wrote:Please post the GFDL model please.


This image depicts the gfdl and the ukmet... kind of don't mind the other ones.
Image
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1071 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:09 pm

Look about 12 post above "Swimdude"
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#1072 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:09 pm

the rebirth of alberto
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#1073 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:12 pm

What is the intensity predicted by the GFDL?
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CHRISTY

#1074 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:12 pm

NHC TRACK FROM CROWN WEATHER.

Image
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NewOrleansMeteorologist

#1075 Postby NewOrleansMeteorologist » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:13 pm

Again, NHC is ALWAYS slow in changing its predictions. It's rather worthless to post their graphics now.
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#1076 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:13 pm

Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.
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#1077 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:14 pm

Swimdude wrote:Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.


It's the BEST model don't trash it :lol: .
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#1078 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:14 pm

x trap shows current motion
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#1079 Postby curtadams » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:14 pm

cpdaman wrote:from the water vapor and i am an amateur i have 2 questions. what is that more pronounced clock wise rotation occuring in central carribean. a anti-cylone? and two as a short-wave appears to be dropping south thru the mississippi valley and the anti-cyclonic flow in the carribean might this things just get pushed more east north east in the path of least resistance, and also will the llC go for the ride. if the low llC starts moving more east with the help of the anticylonic flow south

The clockwise flow is indeed a high-altitude cyclone, more or less left over from the convection that formed Alberto. I can't say how likely it is, but the NE turn was expected to be driven mostly by the trough projected to drop down. The anticyclone could play a role too but generally high altitude winds are westerly at those latitudes anyway.
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#1080 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:14 pm

Swimdude wrote:Random Question:

What is WITH the "X Trap" model? It always seems to be a creepishly straight line. And not just with this storm. I'm talking with EVERY storm.


It just says where the storm is moving!!!! It's not a model!!!
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