Tropical Storm Alberto

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CHRISTY

#1281 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:33 am

guys i just got up and this thing in my opinion has a chance to make to minimal hurricane strength right before landfall....all i can say is :eek: :eek:

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#1282 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:34 am

You be alright Dixie. Secure the garbage can and stay off the water. It wont be a good day for boating Dixie,.
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#1283 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:34 am

Guys and gals this going to catch alot of people in the Tampa Bay area off guard I am afraid - should be similar to how Frances was when it passed through Tampa. It shows that you cannot underestimate the power of the GOM and loop current.....
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#1284 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:35 am

Convection is actually getting sheared off away from the center though a relocation of the center under the convection is possible.
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#1285 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:36 am

The flight level wind was 68 knots, which translates to 51 knots/58.7 mph at the surface (if multiplier is .75, I can't remember) or 54.4 knots/62.6 mph (if the multiplier is .8). If they round up to 65 mph, I could see hurricane watches in either the 11am advisory or the 5pm advisory.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1286 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:37 am

mtm4319 wrote:The flight level wind was 68 knots, which translates to 54.4 knots/62.6 mph at the surface. If they round up to 65 mph, I could see hurricane watches in either the 11am advisory or the 5pm advisory.


Yep, probably as a precaution. Tropical storm watches upgraded to warnings.
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#1287 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am

mtm4319 wrote:The flight level wind was 68 knots, which translates to 54.4 knots/62.6 mph at the surface. If they round up to 65 mph, I could see hurricane watches in either the 11am advisory or the 5pm advisory.


WOW. Looks like this may go down as one of the biggest surprises in tropical storm history - if this baby becomes a hurricane before landfall it will shock everybody.. :eek:
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#1288 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am

Roadrunner cable down all weekend........arggggggggg!
All in all it does not look all that bad thanks to shearing.
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#1289 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am

A hurricane watch would cause those people who haven't prepared to start preparing like crazy.
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#1290 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:40 am

no advance wrote:You be alright Dixie. Secure the garbage can and stay off the water. It wont be a good day for boating Dixie,.


Thanks no advance -- I certainly won't be on a boat today!
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#1291 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:41 am

3331 divided by 120 equals approx. 28 posts a day. Wow Hurricne Hunter
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#1292 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am

They found 74 kt wind.
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#1293 Postby feederband » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am

cane?
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#1294 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am

No way Charlie was a bigger surprise. Cat 4
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#1295 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:44 am

a 74 knot FL wind would lead me to believe that Alberto is now a 65 or 70mph TS.
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#1296 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:44 am

no advance wrote:3331 divided by 120 equals approx. 28 posts a day. Wow Hurricne Hunter


I suspect cycloneye easily holds the record for average number of posts over his career.
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#1297 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

Also, I do not think they would upgrade to a cane until they have multiple 80 knot+ FL winds. Also, they would probably hold off to see better organization.
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#1298 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

At least he knows what he is writing about. Cyclone is no rookie.
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#1299 Postby arcticfire » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

I don't think it's getting blown apart , I think it's just expanding and deeping
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#1300 Postby curtadams » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

The LLC convection can't just relocate under the convection. It's way too big. It can move, and is moving, toward the highest convection. In any case, with this shear, the LLC can never be under the convection - the convection will be in the LLC's updraft, which goes downwind. Hurricanes aren't solid objects.
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