Tropical Storm Alberto

[Brent]

I'm still not certain it'll make hurricane status... but it's very close. The latest recon said 76 kts at flight level, so only about 4 more mph until we reach 'Cane status... but the shear should start to increase soon, so we'll see...

I think if it does reach hurricane status, it will peak before landfall, and then weaken slightly.

[Stormcenter]

I'm still not certain it'll make hurricane status... but it's very close. The latest recon said 76 kts at flight level, so only about 4 more mph until we reach 'Cane status... but the shear should start to increase soon, so we'll see...

The shear hasn't stopped Alberto yet and believe me it hasn't let up any since he entered the GOM.

[Noles2006]

yes, stormcenter, but like boca_chris has mentioned it is moving out of the loop current, which has helped Alberto win the battle against the shear...

[6SpeedTA95]

I think its best chance at hurricane strength is in the next 3 hours. Even if it does reach hurricane strength, I think it will weaken a bit before landfall. (This was my prediction all along!)

That sounds pretty good.

[Dustin]

Well with the shear, coming in and all, I think it is going to make landfall as a 65 or 70mph ts.

[SouthFloridawx]

However you have to also remember that just because it just moved out of the loop current it will take some time to completely cycle out the warm waters of the loop current then the cooler waters will take affect.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

and don't forget either that when a NE movement really kicks in, the shear will not have nearly the effect it is having up to then

[Stormcenter]

yes, stormcenter, but like boca_chris has mentioned it is moving out of the loop current, which has helped Alberto win the battle against the shear...

That's true.

[gatorcane]

FYI - there is a huge blob of convection with cold cloud stops being sheared into the Tampa area - should get there by this afternoon and evening.

Winds are probably TS force with gusts to 70 mph in this blob - lets hope it weakens some as it approaches the beaches of Tampa Bay.

[gatorcane]

FYI the offshore waters forecast showing wind gusts to 80K!!! Check it out:




OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ086-122130-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006


HURRICANE WARNING N OF 25N

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
N OF 25N TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF
CENTER...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 60 GUSTS 75 KT INCREASE TO HURRICANE
WITH WINDS 65 GUSTS 80 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 250 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 200 NM NW QUADRANT...WITH HIGHEST
SEAS 17 FT INCREASING TO 21 FT TONIGHT. S OF 25N SE WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS IN SQUALLS N OF
25N.

TUE
N OF 26N TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 175 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER...WITH HIGHEST WINDS
65 GUSTS 80 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE
OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 22 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
24N WINDS 20 TO 33 KT DECREASE TO 25 KT LATE TUE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDE TO 6 FT LATE TUE. S OF 24N SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5
TO 7 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS IN SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE
OF ALBERTO.

[HurricaneGirl]

the forecast points now have (1)'s in them

[DESTRUCTION5]

Comma Shape looks like Subtropical transition may be in the works..

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[gatorcane]

Comma Shape looks like Subtropical transition may be in the works..

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

I agree I think it is slowly on its way to starting the subtropical transition....

[Stormcenter]

Well it looks like strenghthening phase "maybe" has ended based
on satellite observations.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

Anybody see that hole turning in over the water on the radar from Tallahasse. Do you guys think that maybe the center?

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktlh.shtml

I see this feature on Tampa Bay radar too.

[gatorcane]

Anybody see that hole turning in over the water on the radar from Tallahasse. Do you guys think that maybe the center?

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktlh.shtml

No that isn't it, its farther SSW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anybody see that hole turning in over the water on the radar from Tallahasse. Do you guys think that maybe the center?

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktlh.shtml

I see this feature on Tampa Bay radar too.

Yes...For sure..Looks to be 40-50 NM across..

[Stratusxpeye]

On that image of radar loop it def appears to be moving more easterly. Could just be my eyes.

[6SpeedTA95]

Well it looks like strenghthening phase "maybe" has ended based
on satellite observations.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Convection has definately been calming down these last few shots...

[gatorcane]

Anybody see that hole turning in over the water on the radar from Tallahasse. Do you guys think that maybe the center?

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktlh.shtml

I see this feature on Tampa Bay radar too.

Yes...For sure..Looks to be 40-50 NM across..

I could be looking at the wrong hole..