Tropical Storm Alberto

[JonathanBelles]

Alberto history so far has been, intensifying in the night and then weakening (visibly speaking) during the day.

so youre expecting it to intensify again tonight?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Alberto will probably weaken a bit today and strengthen over night and then weaken a bit in the day again.

[MiamiensisWx]

Alberto will probably weaken a bit today and strengthen over night and then weaken a bit in the day again.

Why do you think so? Explain your reasoning. Quality over quantity.

[terstorm1012]

I think we are likely to see a slight weakening before landfall. You can see outflow boundaries on visible imagery, and the system is showing signs of weakening on both visible and infra-red imagery. Although periodic bursts of convection are likely to occur before landfall, I expect a slow weakening soon beginning to take place as dry air intrusion and increasing shear starts to take it's toll on the system. I think we will see a landfalling tropical storm with sustained winds likely in the range of 50MPH to 65MPH, in my opinion.

You can really see evidence of potential slight weakening starting to soon take place just before landfall by viewing the synoptics and water vapor imagery...

Water vapor imagery

As shear increases before landfall, preshore quick weakening short spurts may be enhanced...

Storm also moving away from the Loop Current...and into slightly cooler waters.

[HURAKAN]

Alberto history so far has been, intensifying in the night and then weakening (visibly speaking) during the day.

so youre expecting it to intensify again tonight?

The storm's history will say yes!!! Nevertheless, the system is moving toward lower sea-surface temperatures, will being to interact with land soon, dry air continues, and shear remains strong. Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised if it blossoms once again in the overnight hours. Lets wait and see what happens!!!

[GalvestonDuck]

I see you have been here a very short time. Excuse me but you need to spend a considerable amount of time here and realize that people are concerned for many reasons. This is an uncertain storm and although not a "Katrina" by any means, it can still cause lots of problems for people, including death. If you are in fact an NBC Intern then you might need to 'study' tolerance.

Why do you keep putting salt on what was done. Are you so fixated on what just happened. Regardless, if I have been here a short time or long time. I am an intern and "tolerance" in the journalism field is short. May I suggest some sensitivity classes for the both of us????

I have no need to harp on anyone. However, I believe I can post things within the rules. I don't think I have broken any with as many mods coming and going....

Nice diplomacy there, NBCI. But could you both take it to a PM now if you want to continue?

And, please, stop using embedded quotes. Please slap the quotes around only what is pertinent to the conversation rather than regurgitating the whole thing into a new post. Cool?

[NBCintern]

I see you have been here a very short time. Excuse me but you need to spend a considerable amount of time here and realize that people are concerned for many reasons. This is an uncertain storm and although not a "Katrina" by any means, it can still cause lots of problems for people, including death. If you are in fact an NBC Intern then you might need to 'study' tolerance.

Why do you keep putting salt on what was done. Are you so fixated on what just happened. Regardless, if I have been here a short time or long time. I am an intern and "tolerance" in the journalism field is short. May I suggest some sensitivity classes for the both of us????

I have no need to harp on anyone. However, I believe I can post things within the rules. I don't think I have broken any with as many mods coming and going....

Nice diplomacy there, NBCI. But could you both take it to a PM now if you want to continue?

And, please, stop using embedded quotes. Please slap the quotes around only what is pertinent to the conversation rather than regurgitating the whole thing into a new post. Cool?

Please show me. I am smart, but what you just said, lol, has me stumped...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well One CapeVerdeWave that's what Alberto has done ever since its intensified, even though the intensification happened during the day it gained so much convection that added to that strengthening at night. Two, I should have said lost some organization, because as you have seen Alberto has so far lost a little bit of convection and the center is a little bit more exposed than last night. But I also forgot the factor of dry air and shear around the system.

[6SpeedTA95]

You guys do realize that Alberto is now at 70 mph winds and is expected to become a hurricane?

That doesn't mean it'll be a hurricane at landfall.

[GalvestonDuck]

Edited to illustrate a point -- below is not the true text of member's quotes (just in case anyone was silly enough to think it was).

blah blah blah

blah blah blah

blah blah blah blah

Please show me. I am smart, but what you just said, lol, has me stumped...

What you see above...those are embedded quotes. You are simply hitting "Quote" and then replying and attaching all the previous posts to which you are replying into one post. I hope that makes sense. Hopefully, the above will illustrate it better.

If/when you hit "Quote" delete out the all the previous quotes and only reply to the specific part of the person's previous post that you want to reply to. Don't include the whole "conversation" in other words.

[AZS]

Well One CapeVerdeWave that's what Alberto has done ever since its intensified, even though the intensification happened during the day it gained so much convection that added to that strengthening at night. Two, I should have said lost some organization, because as you have seen Alberto has so far lost a little bit of convection and the center is a little bit more exposed than last night. But I also forgot the factor of dry air and shear around the system.

Alberto is not Weakening !

[TampaFl]

Interesting sat. view of center.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida



Robert

[butch]

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT31 KNHC 121758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$




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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Jun-2006 17:58:46 GMT

[cmdebbie]

That doesn't mean it'll be a hurricane at landfall.

No, all that means is that it is a possibility (no matter how slight).

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not so sure that Alberto will weaken given that he has overcome the dry air and is moving now more parallel to the shear. SST's are still above 80 and there has been no extended time of upwelling to cool the surface and the App Bay is very shallow and warm.

At the same time I don't think he will strengthen much more either.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You guys do realize that Alberto is now at 70 mph winds and is expected to become a hurricane?

That doesn't mean it'll be a hurricane at landfall.

I didn't say this would make landfall as a hurricane.

[AZS]

GFDL says HURRICANE ALBERTO at landfall.

[Stratusxpeye]

it would have to move north-west to get to that point. According to the gfdl. So i dont belive it to be accurate with strength either. Id say TS 65-70MPH at landfall. IMO

[Noles2006]

No way does that landfall pan out for the GFDL... it's already east of that location.

[Javlin]

also, the NOAA aircraft had an 81KT FL wind..... was mentioned in another thread by a MET boys and girls do not throw in the towel yet.It's going to be a long season!!