MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
   WESTERN OH/FAR NORTHERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537...
   
   VALID 221637Z - 221800Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537 CONTINUES UNTIL
   19Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY
   SOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN
   OH...AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN KY.
   
   WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND TO LAFAYETTE INDIANA AS OF 1630Z -- WILL
   CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON IN WW 537. FURTHER SOUTH...TOWERING CU IS EVIDENT FROM
   SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME.
   ACCORDINGLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE OHIO
   VALLEY...WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED 2500-3000
   J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH/NORTHERN KY. WITH
   STEADILY INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION OF LINEAR
   CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED
   SOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF WW 537.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   
   39878740 40348569 41738437 41358308 40818266 39898240
   39038303 38048489 38168680 39008743

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...FAR SW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221710Z - 221845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK AND NW AR OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL
   MO SWWD INTO NERN OK ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
   INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
   ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN KS WITH A BAND OF
   STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
   SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25
   KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
   BECOME SEVERE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE WILL EXIST. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   CELLS ESPECIALLY AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   34679315 35119641 36089674 36969584 36499284 35719241

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221745Z - 221915Z
   
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN MO TO THE
   WEST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538.
   
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
   MO OVER THE PAST HOUR...INCLUDING A RECENT 1 INCH HAIL REPORT IN
   CASS COUNTY MO. AS THE STORM ENTERS HENRY COUNTY IT APPEARS TO BE
   EXHIBITING AT LEAST MID LEVEL ROTATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
   BACKGROUND VORTICITY VIA CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV. NARROW CORRIDOR
   OF SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE
   WEST OF WW 538...HOWEVER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL
   EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MO
   BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY ENTERS WW 538.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   37869446 38669416 39349330 39079242 38329243 37539343
   37319435

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL CO...NRN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221746Z - 221915Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL CO AND NRN NM. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
   NECESSARY BY THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF ERN CO
   WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS UPWARD IN THE UPPER 50S F
   AND LOWER 60S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
   MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD
   ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO AS WELL. AS
   STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   HIGHER INSTABILITY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE
   PROFILER IN SERN CO SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED
   DENVER CYCLONE IS PRESENT AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES
   EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INCREASING THE SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS NE CO
   AS WELL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR AS
   SUPERCELLS MATURE IN THE CO PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   35860436 36090619 37290631 38740577 40340489 40470365
   39720249 37720322

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN PA...FAR WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221829Z - 222000Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD
   INTO WRN PA AND WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS
   SRN OH...WRN PA AND WV WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY PRESENT. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS ALLOWING
   THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OH IN
   AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
   EXPANDING THE CONVECTION AND MOVING THE STORMS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS SWRN
   ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS A RESULT...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS WITH A
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   37968101 38538174 40008112 41738024 42617923 41947747
   40197809 37957954

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221912Z - 222045Z
   
   STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS STORMS INITIATE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS
   THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   WSWWD FROM SW OK INTO ERN NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX
   THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT SUGGESTING
   SEVERE MULTICELLS AND/OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
   ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
   IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   33170141 33260245 33790282 35450289 36340267 36520163
   36250012 34389996 33450014 33250054

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA/EASTERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221931Z - 222100Z
   
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST/HAIL THREAT
   THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF GA/EASTERN AL/FL
   PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   IN PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH...HOT TEMPERATURES/WELL
   MIXED AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN MOIST
   AIRMASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF
   1000-1500 J/KG IN PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS
   PER ATLANTA WSR-88D WVP/...AN EPISODIC SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS.
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
   WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
   
   35538537 35788341 35438258 33708254 32538265 30358335
   30348502 31108614 32628644 34008636 35178596

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NE KY...WV...WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...
   
   VALID 222012Z - 222145Z
   
   A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS DEVELOPING AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
   WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE
   ERIE WSWWD INTO NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL FUEL A LINEAR MCS EWD
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE MCS WHICH IS
   CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS. THE STRONG WINDS AT MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC BY THE MCS AND MAY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OH. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST
   WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN OR OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...
   
   37678217 37608394 38278489 39988474 41528412 42018210
   41607944 38458009

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222020Z - 222145Z
   
   WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IT
   APPEARS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WESTERN
   KS.
   
   STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE I-70
   CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND/COLBY KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING BOUNDARY IN PRESENCE OF EASTERLY
   UPSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THE
   AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATIVE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
   PER GRANADA/RED WILLOW PROFILERS...MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP
   LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. IT APPEARS A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
   SOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
   
   39400184 39440022 38369930 37209919 37150014 37200141
   37650179 38290185

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN
   INDIANA INTO WESTERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540...
   
   VALID 222039Z - 222245Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 538 AND 540 CONTINUE
   UNTIL 00Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES NAMELY IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY...THIS IS
   EAST OF WELL ORGANIZED SOUTH CENTRAL MO MCS...EASTWARD INTO A
   RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA/WESTERN KY. STRONG INSOLATION WITH 90S F
   TEMPERATURES/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3250 J/KG IN THE
   MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   MODEST /20 KTS PER BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER/...EASTWARD MOVING SOUTH
   CENTRAL MO MCS/COLD POOL AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX WILL
   CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY
   EVENING...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
   
   36709349 38309293 39659080 39708645 39158574 37888627
   36878687 36468836 36659001

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542...
   
   VALID 222129Z - 222300Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 542 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE FOOTHILLS
   INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO IN AREAS SOUTH OF
   I-70. SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE REPORTED EARLIER IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
   COUNTIES. COMBINATION OF VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MOIST AIRMASS
   /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
   UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG
   WIND GUSTS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SEEMINGLY
   MOST LIKELY IN LINCOLN AND PERHAPS CROWLEY/WESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES IN
   THE SHORT TERM -- ALTHOUGH EAST CENTRAL CO STORMS MAY TEND TO BE
   UNDERCUT BY SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   39110451 39110288 38810221 37220212 37150251 37170381
   37160480 38190486

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA/SRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543...
   
   VALID 222143Z - 222215Z
   
   NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA AND SRN
   NY.
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WW 543
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PA WITH
   AN ESTABLISHED BOW ECHO...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN OH /SUMMIT TO NRN
   COSHOCTON COUNTIES/...APPROACHING WRN PART OF WW 543 BY 22-2230Z.
   AIR MASS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO ERN PA/SRN NY REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
   DESPITE ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN PA...CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING THE
   AIR MASS...THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THE BOW ECHO AND 50 KT WLY
   MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD TO NRN PA/SRN NY THIS EVENING ARE
   EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE BOW STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT.
   
   FARTHER EAST...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EWD
   AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES... ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS SRN NY/NRN PA...WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
   SUPPORT STORMS MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL EWD OF WW 543.
   THUS...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL-ERN PA AND SRN NY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   38047993 38078243 42078037 42687892 42917762 42777561
   42167476 41307492 40267554 39757669 39197817

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545...
   
   VALID 222234Z - 230000Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH PRIMARY
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/SOME STRONG WIND
   GUSTS CONTINUE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO INTO WEST CENTRAL KS...NAMELY
   FROM GREELEY COUNTY KS TO RUSH/ELLIS COUNTIES KS AS OF 2230Z. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING ALONG/SOUTH
   OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN
   1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL REMAIN COMMON
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD
   SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO 15-20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
   SUSTAINED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS STORMS TEND TO
   BE UNDERCUT BY SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...
   
   38780175 38830052 38749933 38009836 37349835 37149956
   37250161

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...
   
   VALID 222245Z - 230015Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH CONTINUED
   LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
   
   ASIDE FROM A PERIODIC SEVERE THREAT IN THE TX PANHANDLE IN A
   CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM NEAR AMARILLO TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK...A MORE
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN WW 544 APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS
   NORTHEAST NM AND THE OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...ONE
   SOUTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER NORTH OF CLAYTON NM...ANOTHER ONE ENTERING
   KIOWA COUNTY CO NORTH OF LAMAR/LA JUNTA AS OF 2230Z. MODEST
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A RELATIVELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
   HALF OF WW 544 THIS EVENING AS ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS/S...WITH
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   36440506 36830346 36730139 36070011 33890045 33660237
   34350464

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/FAR SERN MO/SRN IND/WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540...
   
   VALID 222308Z - 222345Z
   
   NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY 00Z TO REPLACE MOST OF WW 540.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV NOW LOCATED OVER ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER AND
   TRACKING EWD.  ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LINE OF
   BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWWD FROM SWRN IL /JUST E OF STL/ TO
   NERN AR.  ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG/. DESPITE MODEST DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 20 KT/ WIND FIELDS ENHANCED BY MCV MAY PROVE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  IN ADDITION...ESTABLISHED COLD
   POOL IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AS THE LINE OF STORMS SPREADS EWD THIS EVENING INTO FAR SERN MO/SRN
   IL TO SRN IND/WRN KY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   36579084 39518859 39528565 39478534 38618548 36598684
   36488928

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542...
   
   VALID 222350Z - 230115Z
   
   SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
   CO. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO WATCH 542 WILL BE ALLOWED
   TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z.
   
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS/LEADING EDGE OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS...PRIMARY
   SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
   CO...NAMELY IN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. WHILE LARGE HAIL/A FEW
   TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHEAST
   CO...STABILIZING COLD POOL IN WAKE OF MCS/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
   AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO SUGGESTS A
   DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 542.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   38370460 38610294 38600242 37450222 37160243 37120406
   37190487 37790496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN
   KS/NORTHWEST OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...545...
   
   VALID 230021Z - 230215Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 544/545 CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z...WITH THE
   RELATIVELY GREATEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
   NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL
   MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
   KS/NORTHWEST OK.
   
   RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG COLD POOL/COMPOSITE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO/ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK THROUGH MID
   EVENING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS...A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY
   UNPERTURBED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST
   OK...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER AUGMENTED RUC
   SOUNDINGS. MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ADEQUATE
   INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS /NAMELY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLES/ SUGGESTS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FORWARD
   PROPAGATION INTO 20 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   36120417 36490246 37810158 38219854 36559747 34670054
   34080334

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IND/SRN OH/SWRN PA/CENTRAL-ERN KY/MUCH OF
   WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543...
   
   VALID 230038Z - 230145Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PARTS
   OF WW/S 541 AND 543 THROUGH 02Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD
   THROUGH SWRN PA AND BEGINNING TO ENTER SWRN PART OF WW 546.  THE
   TRAILING PORTION OF THIS LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED SWWD INTO CENTRAL
   AND WRN WV...WITH A SECOND LINE OF STORMS ADVANCING ESE THROUGH FAR
   SRN OH/FAR WRN WV AT THIS TIME.  AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT GENERALLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AROUND 25 KT SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z.
   
   FARTHER W...CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND
   SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE /RECENT 38 KT WIND GUST PER 2345Z
   SURFACE OBSERVATION AT IND/ AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NWD INTO A
   MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
   
   36808677 38518608 39568565 39848361 40597865 40507867
   38067989 37608156 36838312

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN NY/ERN-SRN PA/FAR NRN MD/NRN-WRN NJ/NRN DE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546...
   
   VALID 230108Z - 230215Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 546 FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SRN CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE MOVING EWD REACHING FAR ERN PA/WRN NJ/FAR NRN DE BY 02Z.
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 546.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING
   THROUGH THE PA COUNTIES OF LYCOMING TO WRN SCHUYLKILL TO FRANKLIN.
   AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO NJ/DE AND
   NRN MD REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING FORWARD PROPAGATING
   MCS WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL SPREADING EAST OF WW 546 BY 02Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   39787903 40007879 40127775 40477719 41017690 41867701
   42287684 42777628 42757463 42097417 40907402 40007444
   39677476 39307538 39427638

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...
   
   VALID 230334Z - 230430Z
   
   ...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
   ACROSS MAINLY NW OK ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MCS...
   
   LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THAT THE MOST INTENSE AREA OF ONGOING MCS
   IS ACROSS BEAVER THROUGH WOODS CO IN NW OK...SWWD THROUGH
   LIPSCOMB/ROBERTS CO TX. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM AMA TO
   CVS...AS AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY
   EARLIER STORMS. LOCAL RADAR FROM AMA SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
   OUTRUN STRATIFORM RAIN BY NEARLY 30 MILES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW
   GUSTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 40 MPH. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY WEAK...SO
   STORMS WILL HAVE TO MOVE BY PROPAGATION LARGELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY
   SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NW OK IS LIKELY WITH 1-2 INCH
   PER HOUR RATES. SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING CELLS AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   35609838 34820170 34180292 35600273 36930160 37389855
   36479797