Convection Near Bahamas

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cycloneye
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#441 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:19 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 222118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI


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Evil Jeremy
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#442 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:22 pm

24 hours ago:

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

Im calling for an invest by tonight or tommarow, a TD or TS on Sat, and a landfall on Sun.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#443 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:23 pm

Uh Ohh....they sound interested now! Pressures gradually falling, broad surface circulation, could become a little more favorable....makes you wanna say "hmmmmmm"
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CHRISTY

#444 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:24 pm

Here we ago again!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#445 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:26 pm

I have a question....

How can it drift WNW when the steering is heading WSW?
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Evil Jeremy
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#446 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:26 pm

my forecast on this system: theres no point telling you because the server will be down before we can discuss it!
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#447 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:28 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:my forecast on this system: theres no point telling you because the server will be down before we can discuss it!

Excuse me?
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cheezyWXguy
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#448 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:30 pm

(it was a joke)
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#449 Postby bvigal » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:33 pm

Wow! I just pulled up the sat and saw that spin mentioned here. Looks like maybe convection starting to fire up, as now moved into area of very light shear. Will be interesting to hear tonight's TWD. If anyone reads local FL-met discussions on this, please post them here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ft.html
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Trader Ron
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#450 Postby Trader Ron » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:33 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:my forecast on this system: theres no point telling you because the server will be down before we can discuss it!

Excuse me?


:na: :lol: :lol:
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CHRISTY

#451 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:46 pm

Iam starting to see the high pressure ridge strenghthen NE of the area of the disturbed weather NE of the bahamas.If this high pressure right flatens over the storm it will drive the disturbance due west.also i might note its heading for the GULF STREAM and u know what happens there.
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#452 Postby Windtalker1 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:02 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Iam starting to see the high pressure ridge strenghthen NE of the area of the disturbed weather NE of the bahamas.If this high pressure right flatens over the storm it will drive the disturbance due west.also i might note its heading for the GULF STREAM and u know what happens there.
Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:16 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If this pans out, I think high pressure will build in and force the storm SSW toward central Florida as a strong Tropical Storm....comments?
..........................................................................................................Boy that sounds familiar I said the same thing this past Tuesday :D
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HollynLA
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#453 Postby HollynLA » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:05 pm

I can hear the insurance companies closing their doors in Florida already.

Let's just hope this doesn't do anything, but I'm having a feeling there won't be much downtime this season.
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#454 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:05 pm

I don't know about a your intensity forecast, but as for as a Southwest motion, I can see that. Right now there's a high over Georgia and Alabama and the steering pattern through the Bahamas is toward the southwest.

I'm trying to understand the NHC's forecast of WNW drift, but I can't seem to grasp it. Any pro's care to chime in?
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Hurricaneman
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#455 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:07 pm

Maybe that is what is being seen from their view, and it seems to be moving slightly WNW but with the flow, it might or probably will start on a WSW heading
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#456 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:08 pm

If it gets pushed SW it will cross S FL and go into the Gulf.
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#457 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:10 pm

This system is getting intresting. We may see something by saturday IMO. Just because the way it looks now is soo poor, it looks it is getting better organized . 8-)
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CHRISTY

#458 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:11 pm

IR loop....

Image
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#459 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:14 pm

:lol: Sorry - just getting a little humored by seeing "area of disturbed weather" so often. It kind of reminds me if the whole "person of interest" thing a few years ago from the FBI.

I know...I have an odd sense of humor..... :D
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#460 Postby Damar91 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:15 pm

CHRISTY wrote:IR loop....

Image


Maybe it's me, but I'm not sure how this looks better organized.
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