caneman wrote:Noles2006 wrote:Cyclenall wrote:JamesFromMaine2 wrote:I am not bashing any one or anything by saying this but it seems like after last year all the pro-mets on here seem to be tired out and not wanting anything to develop. Every single system so far this year they have all been saying will not develop even if the NHC is saying they will or have a chance to develop.
I noticed that as well.
LOL. The pro mets on this board have been damn near 100% correct this year in predicting development. The only invest they jumped on became Alberto. I'd start listening to them instead of freaking out over every little blow up of convection.
ahmm, No Alberto was not suppose to develop. And the invest was not suppose to get anywhere near classification and it did. Nothing against the mets but sometimes they are the exact opposite of our everything will develop posters. I know it is there job not to alarm people until something is actaully formed but doggone sure would like to hear their opinion on what the future holds for an invest than just stating something that is currently obvious.
I would point out that saying something "has a chance to develop" and saying "it probably will not develop" may mean exactily the same thing. If something has a 5% chance of developing, then there is a chance it could develop, but it probably will not develop (95% chance). The NHC will always say a system has a chance to develop, even when that chance may be tiny. I will always stress the much more likely scenario, but acknowledge when there might be a small chance of development.
As for Alberto, I was quite conderned about it developing. We called a special meeting at the office 2 days before it was classified to schedule staffing. My first official statement on Alberto was as follows:
"Issued: 4:30PM CDT Friday, June 9, 2006
Pressures are falling and thunderstorms are increasing in the northwest Caribbean Sea this afternoon, and it looks like the disturbance is developing a low-level circulation center just to the west of the Cayman Islands near 19.5N/83W. I think that a tropical depression could form within the next 12-24 hours. Movement is difficult to assess, but I think that the system will drift slowly northward into western Cuba over the next 24-36 hours. Beyond that time, computer models are beginning to come into very good agreement in a northeasterly turn toward the Florida Peninsula. But where this system eventually tracks will depend a great deal upon where the center becomes established. The farther east the center forms, the farther down the Florida Peninsula the eventual track would be. It's even possible that the system could pass south of the Florida Peninsula and across the Bahamas.
As for intensity, wind shear will remain at least moderate for the next 3-4 days across the northwest Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This should prevent the disturbance from reaching hurricane strength. Maximum winds could reach 45-65 mph before the system moves east of Florida."
The main difference between many of the pro mets here and a number of posters is we can go on living if a system doesn't develop. We don't think it's fun to see how many hurricanes we can get in a season. Hurricanes mean threats to us and to our clients, and many of those people cannot take a hit in their current state of readiness. So we consider the chances that each disturbance will develop very carefully. When a system really has a chance of development it'll become obvious.
It's been mentioned on this thread that many invests are declared each season. That's true. And only a small fraction of them ever amount to anything. That is particularly true early in the season (June/July). So I'll reserve my enthusiasm for development for a system that really has a shot at developing.
