MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563...
   
   VALID 302344Z - 010045Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
   INTO CENTRAL ND.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO WRN ND
   ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN MT...WHILE ASCENT WITH THE
   IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WRN ND
   AND DOWNSTREAM AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS EWD AT 30-40 KT INTO
   CENTRAL/ERN ND.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-40 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD AS 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS SHEAR COMBINED
   WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/KG/ ACROSS
   CENTRAL/ERN ND EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   46340411 46940410 48080399 48460251 48530059 48509949
   47509934 46339955 46150124

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563...
   
   VALID 010158Z - 010300Z
   
   WW 563 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   ACROSS THE SERN PART OF WW 563.  CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD AND EXIT WW 563 BY 0230-03Z AS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO ERN
   DAKOTAS/WRN MN.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46470122 47330068 47929976 47829931 46699942 46449985
   46230086

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0916 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...
   
   VALID 010216Z - 010245Z
   
   NEW WW FOR NERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD INTO MUCH OF MN IS VERY UNSTABLE
   /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
   FROM W-E IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
   MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST REGIONAL RADARS
   SHOWED SRN MOST STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WERE MOVING ESE AND
   SHOULD ENTER PARTS OF NERN SD DURING THE NEXT HOUR.  THUS...GIVEN
   THIS TREND AND EXISTENCE OF AN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
   INCLUDING NERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
   DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE S OF WW 564 SUPPORTS THE DECISION FOR A NEW WW.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48229984 49009942 48989596 49299489 48579434 46439440
   44699468 44659546 44579670 44589791 44719899 45199947
   45779961

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565...
   
   VALID 010412Z - 010545Z
   
   THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN WW/S 564 AND 565. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
   SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT WITHIN WW 565 SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NRN
   TIER OF COUNTIES FROM ROBERTS COUNTY SD TO TODD COUNTY MN.
   
   ASCENT AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED
   FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ONGOING
   CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERN ND/NERN SD.  POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD IN MN PER 40-45
   KT MOVEMENT OF BOW ECHO WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM RICHLAND
   COUNTY ND INTO NWRN ROBERTS COUNTY SD. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
   REACH WRN MN COUNTIES OF OTTER TAIL...GRANT AND DOUGLAS BETWEEN
   05-06Z.
   
   FARTHER N...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED IN INTENSITY...BUT
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   44559464 44449870 45449884 45939983 46369987 46569916
   47309873 48319903 48749889 48969779 49299467 48229459
   46149441 45089423

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN EXCEPT EXTREME SRN
   PORTION...PARTS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SWRN ALS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565...
   
   VALID 010544Z - 010715Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS -- IS
   EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD NWRN WI THROUGH
   APPROXIMATELY 10Z.  SLIGHT SWD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT MOST
   SUSTAINED MOTION SHOULD BE EWD...GIVEN PROGGED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   MCS MOTION VECTORS. ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.
   
   AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE GRADUALLY...WITH EWD
   EXTENT...LEADING TO SLOW DECREASE IN SVR THREAT EWD ACROSS
   N-CENTRAL/ERN WI.  HOWEVER...STRONG COLD POOL EVIDENT WITH THIS
   SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL STORM SCALE ASCENT...WHILE INFLOW
   LAYER WILL MOISTEN SLIGHTLY BASED ON RUC/WRF FCST MOIST ADVECTION
   AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES AT 850-925 MB LEVELS UPSTREAM.  THEREFORE MCS
   MIGHT SHIFT FARTHER E ACROSS WI THAN CURRENT ANALYSES OF ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY FIELDS INDICATE.  MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG -- NOW EVIDENT
   OVER CENTRAL MN -- WILL LESSEN TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER
   CENTRAL/ERN WI...BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME OVER LATTER AREA UNTIL
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY PASSES.
   
   MEANWHILE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
   NERN ND/NWRN MN...AND WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING ATOP
   OUTFLOW-REINFORCED/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  LATTER TSTMS WILL PERSIST
   IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA...FROM ERN PORTIONS SD/ND BORDER
   INTO WRN MN.  PORTIONS EXISTING WWS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
   MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED 7Z EXPIRATION.  ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE
   BEHIND PRIMARY MCS IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT
   TIME...HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF SVR THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46059964 46259834 47149760 48149821 48489856 48939722
   48619438 47609231 46359027 45058989 44069109 44989779
   45899970

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MN...NWRN WI...EXTREME WRN LS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566...
   
   VALID 010750Z - 010915Z
   
   REMAINS OF FORMERLY SVR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD 40-50 KT ACROSS
   AND OUT OF ERN PORTION WW AREA OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ELEVATED TSTMS
   -- FORMING IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MCS OUTFLOW -- MAY PULSE
   BRIEFLY TO NEAR SVR LEVELS WITH HAIL.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SVR
   THREAT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY KEEPING MOST OF WW THROUGH
   SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.
   
   60 KT GUST MEASURED AT BRD AT 631Z WITH LEADING MCS NOW APCHG DLH
   AREA.  HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...A
   TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS
   BUOYANT PROFILE.  SCATTERED TSTMS FARTHER N ACROSS ST LOUIS COUNTY
   MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER WRN/NRN
   ARROWHEAD REGION...INCLUDING BOUNDARY WATERS AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE NEAR SFC AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...PRIND
   ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED...EITHER OVER ARROWHEAD...LS OR NRN
   WI.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   48519261 48599282 48439327 48359369 46249524 46189633
   45919643 45529618 45429460 45689255 46719085 48048951
   48038977 47978997 48099003 48099072 48259088 48079139
   48079159 48209173 48269202 48379209 48279236 48459250

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ME/NRN NH/NRN VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011631Z - 011900Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NRN ME SWWD
   INTO NRN PARTS OF NH AND VT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.  WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE
   NEEDED.
   
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE UPPER CIRCULATION
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN QUEBEC IS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.  ALTHOUGH DEW
   POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO
   -21C AT 500 MB/ ARE RESULTING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
   MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60 KT
   APPROACHING NRN ME IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WHICH MAY INCREASE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF NRN  NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   STRONGER CELLS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE SUGGESTS WATCH WILL NOT BE
   NECESSARY.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
   
   44597323 45067235 45297101 46057023 47166943 47346843
   47066773 45996776 45286795 44496890 44037052 43897203
   44047311

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI/NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011758Z - 012000Z
   
   CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM NEAR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
   WSWWD INTO FAR NWRN WI.  THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH BY 19-20Z.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN UPR MI INTO FAR NWRN WI NEAR THE
   SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND NWRN ONTARIO.  CLEARING SKIES IN THE
   WAKE OF EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER NERN WI/ERN UPR MI HAVE
   ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80-85F RANGE ALONG AN
   AXIS NEAR THE FRONT.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID
   60S...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED 1000-1500 J/KG.  CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE
   WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL ENHANCE
   STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   46049168 46568990 47098792 47078662 46458523 45888539
   45218648 45088823 45019020 45089149 45669193

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MT/NCNTRL THROUGH NERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011913Z - 012115Z
   
   LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
   ERN PORTIONS OF MT THROUGH NCNTRL WY...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
   INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ID IMPULSE.
   AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM MT/WY INDICATE MID
   LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF
   RIVERTON/LANDER IS E/SELY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SUPERCELLS
   POSSIBLE. WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   42610520 42950877 46340950 47880950 48760875 48940675
   48730510 44660395 43060394

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPR MI...NRN LOWER MI...NRN LAKE MI...NRN LAKE
   HURON
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012011Z - 012145Z
   
   A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MI...AND
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 567 OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z EAST
   OF WW 567 COVERING THE REMAINDER OF ERN UPR MI...NRN LOWER MI...AND
   PARTS OF NRN LAKE MI AND NRN LAKE HURON.
   
   RADAR INDICATES THE STORMS ACROSS UPR MI HAVE DEVELOPED SEVERAL
   SMALL-SCALE LEWPS/BOW STRUCTURES INDICATING AN INCREASE IN WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE
   UPPER VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN LAKE
   SUPERIOR REGION...WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAK.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
   
   44288677 45248630 46298542 46588484 46518409 46208381
   45488329 44608325 44188350

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI...NRN/CENTRAL WI...NRN LAKE MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...
   
   VALID 012043Z - 012245Z
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING IN A BAND FROM ERN UPR MI SWWD
   INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
   SOUTH OF THE BAND FROM TAYLOR INTO OCONTO COUNTIES IN WI.  THE STORM
   IN WRN OCONTO COUNTY HAS ACQUIRED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...
   WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
   TORNADO.
   
   ALL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD INTO A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS MID/UPPER 60S/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS WARMED
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG.  STRONG 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI IS ENHANCING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
   40-45 KT.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE EWD 30-35 KT.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...
   
   44259011 44619074 45229086 45679023 46178807 46588667
   46818540 46788492 45578590 44048688 43808729 44048939

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0423 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012123Z - 012200Z
   
   WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL IA.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN TO WRN
   IA.  AIR MASS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AND IS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT
   WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SRN MN INTO NRN IA SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL...MODERATE SHEAR /SFC-6 KM 20-25 KT/ FARTHER SOUTH INTO
   CENTRAL IA WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
   TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EWD INTO
   INSTABILITY AXIS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
   
   42629503 43459432 43479143 42919114 41989136 41789312
   41929492

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012144Z - 012315Z
   
   ...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED NEXT 1-2 HOURS...
   
   AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN FROM ERN WY
   THROUGH SW SD INTO CNTRL NEB AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER 80S. MODIFIED 12Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING YIELDS AROUND 2300 J/KG
   MLCAPE. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM NORTH PLATTE NEB INDICATES ELY SFC
   FLOW UNDERNEATH AROUND 30-40 KT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
   FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM
   SW NEB INTO NW IA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ALONG
   THE KS/NEB BORDER IN DECATUR COUNTY...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
   CAREFULLY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   40880425 41470677 44850648 45140225 44340157 43040137
   41040230

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012335Z - 020000Z
   
   NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SRN WI.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG STORM OVER NERN IA /WINNESHIEK
   COUNTY/ WITH CURRENT MOVEMENT ENE INTO SWRN WI BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED
   NEWD INTO SWRN-NERN WI.  AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THUS...NEW WW WILL BE
   ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 569 AND SOUTH OF WW 567.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43479114 44058971 44008773 42558786 42478915 42549052
   43099081

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...571...
   
   VALID 020032Z - 020200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS NEWLY ISSUED WW 571.  FARTHER
   N...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 02Z IN VALID PART OF WW
   567 IN EAST CENTRAL WI AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES ESE OVER CENTRAL
   LAKE MI BETWEEN 02-03Z.
   
   A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST
   HALF HOUR /SINCE 2345Z/ FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN WI.  THIS ACTIVITY
   FORMED ALONG AN EWD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT ENCOUNTERED A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN WI.
   ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
   EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SPREADS EWD.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   /30-35 KT/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF
   EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   42529039 43269046 43629099 43838989 44178921 44558844
   44828737 44798674 43868712 43298708 42478704 42478950

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SW SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570...
   
   VALID 020041Z - 020215Z
   
   ...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 570 CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THREAT
   GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HELPED INITIATE NEW STORMS
   ACROSS NORTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY...A FEW MILES N/NW OF CHEYENNE.
   OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS SE WY...THOUGH
   FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LARAMIE MTNS MAY YIELD A BRIEF
   STRONG/SVR STORM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS ACROSS SW
   SD HAVE MERGED INTO A SMALL COMPLEX AND SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
   00Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATES ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...SO IT
   APPEARS TSTMS WILL RIDE DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NEBRASKA.
   LARGE SCALE LIFT IS NOT STRONG...BUT SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD
   POOL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LLJ SHOULD
   SUPPORT CONTINUED STORMS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   41070178 41130522 41420557 43490536 43890433 44070366
   43710208 42300174

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0802 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568...
   
   VALID 020102Z - 020200Z
   
   LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
   THIS EVENING.
   
   DESPITE A FEW STRONG STORMS EARLIER ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...MOST OF
   THE STORMS THAT MOVED ESEWD ACROSS LAKE MI HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN.
   IN ADDITION...AIR MASS ACROSS LOWER MI HAS REMAINED AND CONTINUES TO
   BE MORE STABLE THAN THE AIR MASS TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN WI.  THUS...
   GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY THE
   LOCAL WFO.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
   
   44818717 45028468 46328249 46268146 45268236 44218237
   44048404 44148686

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / WRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571...
   
   VALID 020227Z - 020330Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 571. STORMS...
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN PART OF
   SRN LOWER MI.
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DIMINISHING STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE
   ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WI WHICH APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
   DECREASING TREND IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT 30 KT
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
   EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   MEANWHILE...TWO STORMS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI APPROACHING
   MANISTEE/MASON COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI HAVE TENDED TO MAINTAIN
   STORM INTENSITY.  LESS AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW...BUT
   ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE CROSSING LAKE MI MAY
   REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE PER SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50
   KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   42809112 43968908 44208831 44258731 44248663 44258583
   44218496 42858468 42298546 42479047

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND CENTRAL/SRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020309Z - 020445Z
   
   ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB INTO
   CENTRAL/SRN IA...WITH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
   
   LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN
   IA SWWD INTO SWRN IA TO JUST NORTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER.
   STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ /25 KT/ WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN OK INTO
   SRN-SERN NEB/SRN IA IS RESULTING IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IA AT THIS TIME.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /30-35 KT/...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM PER
   00Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   40759977 41369985 41769968 42039853 42059737 42159606
   42349445 42479333 42669229 42779120 42509065 42049058
   41589168 41109425 40989564 40649769 40429959

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/SRN NY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021519Z - 021645Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND
   NUMBER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN PA/SRN NY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
   DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A COUPLE OF WEAKENING CLUSTERS WERE MOVING EWD TOWARD NERN PA/SRN
   NY...BUT WITH HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD
   INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND WEAK
   CONVERGENCE MAY BE AIDED BY A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THAT
   EXTENDS FROM NERN PA NEWD INTO MA. THE LIFT SHOULD ALSO BE
   ACCENTUATED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC. ONCE
   STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS FROM THE TOP OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 300 MB SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
   STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BANDS/LINES...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE
   MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   41377595 42707622 42937364 42827142 41567136 41317240
   41277492