NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

[wxmann_91]

Wow, I missed this Typhoon! that is one nice looking typhoon so far! A pin-hole eye is present with Wilma being copied.

This should become a Super Typhoon soon.

I doubt it. The eye has failed to organize more and the UL anticyclone has moved to the east, leaving behind some shear. Increasing shear at around 24-48 hours along with decreasing HC should allow weakening to commence in around 24 hours.

[WindRunner]

T=24 16.8N 131.4E -037HPA +032KT

So tomorrow night (here-time) we should expect a 913hPa 112kt cyclone? That's a little optimistic if you ask me . . .

[CHRISTY]

Lookin very impressive tonight....

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 953.0mb/ 97.2kt

[HURAKAN]

Location: 15.4N 227.1E

WU having a location problem??!!??!!?!!?!!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[wxmann_91]

Nice to see you back HURAKAN.

It looks like it has strengthened again a little, the anticyclone is back. We'll see if this trend continues, nevertheless, I'm doubting it.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, I missed this Typhoon! that is one nice looking typhoon so far! A pin-hole eye is present with Wilma being copied.

This should become a Super Typhoon soon.

I doubt it. The eye has failed to organize more and the UL anticyclone has moved to the east, leaving behind some shear. Increasing shear at around 24-48 hours along with decreasing HC should allow weakening to commence in around 24 hours.

I don't think so. It looks like a Super Typhoon currently but it needs to get a bit better before I can judge anything. It's forcasted to become a CAT4 Typhoon so that means it's forcasted to become a Super Typhoon by the JTWC. Also, it would become a Super Typhoon before 24 hours is up due to fast strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

Nice to see you back HURAKAN.

It looks like it has strengthened again a little, the anticyclone is back. We'll see if this trend continues, nevertheless, I'm doubting it.

Thanks!!!

Nice to be back from a week vacation and find that at least there is something to track in the WPAC!!!

The typhoon looks great and lets hope it's not intense when it hits Japan.

[wxmann_91]

The typhoon looks great and lets hope it's not intense when it hits Japan.

It probably won't since shear and cooler waters will be engulfing it. Personally, I do not believe Ewiniar will hit Japan any stronger than a Cat 1 equivolent, if it does at all.

BTW, I think it will peak around 115 kt at most. The classic signature of a supertyphoon, which are -80 degree C or colder cloud tops, are not there. Also note the strong belt of shear just to the north of the system.

[Cyclenall]

BTW, I think it will peak around 115 kt at most. The classic signature of a supertyphoon, which are -80 degree C or colder cloud tops, are not there. Also note the strong belt of shear just to the north of the system.

Have you seen some pics of Isabel at peak strength? That hurricane didn't have the colder cloud tops that she should have had. I noticed it in one of the shots taken from the GOES IR when she was at CAT5.

Where can I find shear maps for the West Pacific?

[CHRISTY]

[P.K.]

85kts, 945hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 16.1N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 18.2N 130.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 060600UTC 20.8N 129.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 070600UTC 23.7N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT

T=24 16.8N 131.4E -037HPA +032KT

So tomorrow night (here-time) we should expect a 913hPa 112kt cyclone? That's a little optimistic if you ask me . . .

That is what the typhoon model has been showing. However the JMA have never forecast this to exceed 90kts.

FXPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
PSTN 040000UTC 15.3N 133.0E
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 85KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 16.0N 132.5E -007HPA +004KT
T=12 16.7N 132.0E -016HPA +015KT
T=18 17.1N 131.4E -022HPA +021KT
T=24 17.6N 130.9E -023HPA +023KT
T=30 18.0N 130.6E -029HPA +028KT
T=36 18.2N 130.4E -031HPA +032KT
T=42 18.6N 130.2E -030HPA +027KT
T=48 19.0N 130.1E -030HPA +029KT
T=54 19.6N 130.0E -035HPA +035KT
T=60 20.1N 129.9E -031HPA +030KT
T=66 20.8N 129.8E -031HPA +028KT
T=72 21.6N 129.5E -032HPA +030KT
T=78 22.3N 129.1E -037HPA +031KT
T=84 23.1N 128.7E -038HPA +032KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

[WindRunner]

Yeah, I'm going with the JMA on this, that new model run is peaking out at T=84 with a 907hPa 117kt cyclone now, for what looks like what would be a third intensity peak . . . um, no. JMA might be a touch low, but it's much more on target than this crazy model.

[JamesFromMaine2]

04WNONAME.120kts-922mb

[P.K.]

Well it is now stronger than 90kts as was forecast so the typhoon model isn't too bad. 95kts, 930hPa, and now forecast to reach 100kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 16.8N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 19.2N 129.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 061200UTC 21.3N 129.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 071200UTC 24.1N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT

[whereverwx]

Wow!

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GREAT AND AMAZING!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Holy! I was gone for three days and I come back to find that the WPAC has produced a highly organized storm. Been a while since I've seen TC's with eyes.

[whereverwx]

It's looking really intense on the MIMIC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

a possible SuperTyphoon soon????????


Tropical Storm Public Advisory

642

wtpn31 pgtw 041500
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 04w (Ewiniar) warning nr 020
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
041200z --- near 16.8n 132.2e
movement past six hours - 340 degrees at 08 kts
position accurate to within 025 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 120 kt, gusts 145 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
050 nm southeast quadrant
050 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
140 nm southeast quadrant
110 nm southwest quadrant
150 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 16.8n 132.2e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
050000z --- 18.0n 131.1e
Max sustained winds - 130 kt, gusts 160 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
050 nm southeast quadrant
050 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant
140 nm southeast quadrant
140 nm southwest quadrant
140 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 315 deg/ 07 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
051200z --- 19.0n 130.0e
Max sustained winds - 130 kt, gusts 160 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
135 nm southeast quadrant
130 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 330 deg/ 06 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
060000z --- 20.0n 129.4e
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
135 nm southeast quadrant
135 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 345 deg/ 06 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
061200z --- 21.2n 129.0e
Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 135 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
130 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 360 deg/ 08 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
071200z --- 24.4n 129.0e
Max sustained winds - 095 kt, gusts 115 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
130 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 020 deg/ 13 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
081200z --- 29.3n 130.8e
Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
becoming extratropical
vector to 120 hr posit: 025 deg/ 15 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
091200z --- 34.8n 134.0e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
becoming extratropical
---
remarks:
041500z position near 17.1n 131.9e. Typhoon (TY) 04w (Ewiniar),
located approximately 620 nm south-southeast of Naha, Okinawa,
has tracked north-northwestward at 08 knots over the past six
hours. The storm has intensified significantly over the last
12 hours and now has a well defined 13 nm diameter eye.
Maximum significant wave height at 041200z is 38 feet.
Next warnings at 042100z, 050300z, 050900z and 051500z.//