Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

[jasons2k]

For those interested in rainfall rates in your area, The Harris County Office of Emergency has a map link to how much rain a particular (ditch, creek, river, or Bayou) has received. It gives you the accumalted rain totals for as short as the last 15 minutes up to days. If you click on a particular gauge it will also tell you how hight the water is in that Bayou.

http://maps.hcoem.org/hcrainfall.php

Thanks for the link HouTX!

I drew a map for the last 6 hours and it shows these totals:
Sensor @ I-45 & Hardy Toll Road: .98"
Sensor @ Willow Creek & Kuykendahl (north of 2920): .51"
Sensor @ Cypress Creek & Stuebner-Airline: 1.14"

These are consistent with the radar estimates for the area.

[HouTXmetro]

For those interested in rainfall rates in your area, The Harris County Office of Emergency has a map link to how much rain a particular (ditch, creek, river, or Bayou) has received. It gives you the accumalted rain totals for as short as the last 15 minutes up to days. If you click on a particular gauge it will also tell you how hight the water is in that Bayou.

http://maps.hcoem.org/hcrainfall.php

Thanks for the link HouTX!

I drew a map for the last 6 hours and it shows these totals:
Sensor @ I-45 & Hardy Toll Road: .98"
Sensor @ Willow Creek & Kuykendahl (north of 2920): .51"
Sensor @ Cypress Creek & Stuebner-Airline: 1.14"

These are consistent with the radar estimates for the area.

You are welcome

[Johnny]

Jeff also mentioned that as this ULL moves off to the south, it could take on tropical characteristics. Are any models picking up on this?

[jasons2k]

Jeff also mentioned that as this ULL moves off to the south, it could take on tropical characteristics. Are any models picking up on this?

Hey Johnny, the ULL has already completed the transformation into a warm-core system, which is typically "tropical" by definition. What this means for us is an increased chance of nightime core rains. From what I've seen it's expected to eventually get pushed into NE Mexico and not over the GOM, so we don't need to worry about it becoming any kind of TC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those interested in rainfall rates in your area, The Harris County Office of Emergency has a map link to how much rain a particular (ditch, creek, river, or Bayou) has received. It gives you the accumalted rain totals for as short as the last 15 minutes up to days. If you click on a particular gauge it will also tell you how hight the water is in that Bayou.

http://maps.hcoem.org/hcrainfall.php

Thanks for the link HouTX!

I drew a map for the last 6 hours and it shows these totals:
Sensor @ I-45 & Hardy Toll Road: .98"
Sensor @ Willow Creek & Kuykendahl (north of 2920): .51"
Sensor @ Cypress Creek & Stuebner-Airline: 1.14"

These are consistent with the radar estimates for the area.

My area must have been in a small bullseye with even more rainfall, because the only time I have seen flooding get close to what it was today in my area is when we get 2-3" hourly rainfall rates.

[HouTXmetro]

My area receive 1.06 inches in the last 6 hours.

[HouTXmetro]

Jeff also mentioned that as this ULL moves off to the south, it could take on tropical characteristics. Are any models picking up on this?

Hey Johnny, the ULL has already completed the transformation into a warm-core system, which is typically "tropical" by definition. What this means for us is an increased chance of nightime core rains. From what I've seen it's expected to eventually get pushed into NE Mexico and not over the GOM, so we don't need to worry about it becoming any kind of TC.

Has thw SE movement ended?

[CajunMama]

For those interested in rainfall rates in your area, The Harris County Office of Emergency has a map link to how much rain a particular (ditch, creek, river, or Bayou) has received. It gives you the accumalted rain totals for as short as the last 15 minutes up to days. If you click on a particular gauge it will also tell you how hight the water is in that Bayou.

http://maps.hcoem.org/hcrainfall.php

Thanks for the link HouTX!

I drew a map for the last 6 hours and it shows these totals:
Sensor @ I-45 & Hardy Toll Road: .98"
Sensor @ Willow Creek & Kuykendahl (north of 2920): .51"
Sensor @ Cypress Creek & Stuebner-Airline: 1.14"

These are consistent with the radar estimates for the area.

My area must have been in a small bullseye with even more rainfall, because the only time I have seen flooding get close to what it was today in my area is when we get 2-3" hourly rainfall rates.

Aren't you on already saturated ground?

[jasons2k]

Jeff also mentioned that as this ULL moves off to the south, it could take on tropical characteristics. Are any models picking up on this?

Hey Johnny, the ULL has already completed the transformation into a warm-core system, which is typically "tropical" by definition. What this means for us is an increased chance of nightime core rains. From what I've seen it's expected to eventually get pushed into NE Mexico and not over the GOM, so we don't need to worry about it becoming any kind of TC.

Has thw SE movement ended?

It's moving almost due south. If anything, as Portastorm pointed out, it may have a slightly SW or SSW component to the movement, but in studying the water vapor loop I'm not sure it is actually moving to the SSW/SW just yet. The center is somewhat elongated so it makes pinpointing a direction pretty tricky...but overall it's shifting south.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW OUTSIDE OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF BRYAN-COLLEGE STATION. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY HAS BEEN MAINLY AROUND AND EAST OF I-45 AND HIGHWAY 59. ONE HARRIS
COUNTY RAINFALL GAUGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING RECORDED
1.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES! THE QUICK BURST OF STORMS THAT PRODUCED
THIS RAINFALL RATE MOVED RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKENED. AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY IS LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER STORMS NOW OFF
THE COAST AND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. AS THE
LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...OUR DILEMMA BECOMES WHERE AND WHEN OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL FORM. CURRENT ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST IS PROBABLY DISRUPTING
ANY LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT INLAND STORMS THROUGH
MID EVENING (EXCEPTION COULD POSSIBLY BE WHERE LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS YET
TO HAPPEN TODAY UP NORTH AND WEST). AS THE STUFF OFF THE COAST WEAKENS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LOW'S CIRCULATION. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND WHEN WE SEE STORMS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>2 INCHES) WARRANT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AREAWIDE.
WILL UPDATE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND CALL FOR WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE
WHERE TRAINING DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT US TO GET BACK
INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF MAINLY DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND AN ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. IN THE EXTENDED...WILL
CALL FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT NIGHT.

[southerngale]

Thanks for the explanation earlier, Jason. Glancing over the NWS Houston discussion pretty quickly because I'm in a hurry, it seems quite a bit different than what NWS Lake Charles is saying. I'll try to look at them both better later. Anyway, here it is.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
248 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA CENTERED
NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS AT MID DAY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST TO EAST
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING AND TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.

EXPECT A TREND IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS THE HEAT OF
THE DAY IS LOST. FOR THURSDAY...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MID
TEXAS COAST IS PROGGED TO PRODUCE STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST WHERE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE DEEPEST
SO THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER JEFFERSON AND
ORANGE COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE HIGH AGAIN
AREA WIDE THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY.

A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY SO THAT
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHERNLY SUNDAY. BEYOND SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AN

[jasons2k]

Hey Kelly - yes been glancing over the various forecast discussions today and there is not a lot of agreement on the fate of the low, with some taking it into the Gulf and some taking it south towards the TX Lower Coast and Mexico. Haven't had time to look at any of the models today, just radar and satellite loops. Given the way things have gone over the last week or so I don't think anyone has a good handle on this one.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, Houston says SW movement and Lake Charles says SE movement. THats a big difference.

[Yankeegirl]

well here in San Antonio the weaher here was wonderful today... Did the zoo and the riverwalk... Nice clear weather with a few white fluffy clouds... There is no rain this way that I can send ya, as if you guys want more, but since I am to the west, there is nothing here, maybe a ood sign for ya....

[vbhoutex]

Ok, Houston says SW movement and Lake Charles says SE movement. THats a big difference.

Jeff says SE today, which it has done, and then SW tomorrow or Friday(see posted above I think) to NE Mexico, so it could be both.

[jeff]

A few comments:

As for rainfall rates today...they were fairly impressive.

ALERT gages recorded the following rainfall per time step.

K100 (Cypress Creek) @ Huffmeister Rd -- 1.81 inches in 15-min
K100 (Cypress Creek) @ Huffmeister Rd -- 2.62 inches in 30 min (3.98 in total)
L100 (Little Cypress Creek) @ Kluge Rd-- 1.13 inches in 15 min

Cypress Creek is within 1.5 feet of bankfull at Grant RD and Jones Rd based on OEm and USGS gages stations and 4.5 feet at I-45 based on USGS and OEM stations. RFC forecast brings the Creek overbanks at I-45 later tonight...but I disagree as the upstream floodwave will flatten as it progresses downstream and the creek should crest early tomorrow morning within its banks. Hence it was decided a statement on the creek was better than a flood warning as Cypress responds fairly slowly and there is plenty of time to re-examine and issue a warning if needed.

With PWS of 2.1-2.35 inches such rainfall totals are to be expected.

As far as the upper low goes...it appears to be slightly warm core now, but is forecast to weaken as it shifts southward into the Gulf later Thursday. In fact the low really weakens by Friday and is barely notice in the models anymore as upper ridging builds southward over the low. There will be no tropical development.

As far as core rains go...while although the pattern is favorable for such events, this system has yet to produce such an event over the last 5 days. Convergence increases late tonight and storms should fire along the coast and perhaps inland W of I-45 where upper air venting will be strongest. With that said most of the area can handle widespread 1-2 inch amounts with isolated 3-5 inch amounts. Although such totals may push some watersheds to bankfull where heavy rains have fallen over the last several days.

[jasons2k]

I had 1.92" from the overnight storms and what hit today. We had 3 or 4 separate storms so unfortunately I can't ascertain what came from what.

[vbhoutex]

1.45" here at the Spring Branch abode. It has been spitting rain for a while now, but nothing to talk about.

[vbhoutex]

Taking a quick look at rdar before heading out this morning. Once again it looks like much of the area will get a soaking today. By looking at radar only it appears the ULL is centered just SW of Houston, probably just N of Freeport or a little SW of there. Ch2 guy just said it was to our NW, which it was yesterday, not this am imo. Jamaica Beach has already gotten a couple of inches this am and most of it in a 20 min period, so it appears that these storms today could be of the torrential type.

[HouTXmetro]

It looks offshore to me.