96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Jim Cantore]

its still extremely disorganized with little indication of a CLOSED LLC. The band is forming a little too far east of the center

It's still in a hostile enviroment. If it stays off of south america and gets into the Carbbiean then things may change but it's still a ways off.

[GeneratorPower]

Derek, aside from the fact that this looks pretty disorganized currently, can you tell the board, in as much detail as you have time for, why exactly the environmental conditions do not favor at least slow development with this wave?

[Derek Ortt]

the dry air, which causes descending motion, instead of the ascent, which leads to LL convergence. With the dry air, it produces divergence, reducing vorticity, impeding the development of an LLC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I agree derek..Theres alot of dry air. In dry is likely keeping a LLC from developing. I'm trying my hardest not to hype in try to learn.

[GeneratorPower]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Now on the water vapor imagery, I'm seeing at least somewhat moist "whites" and "grays" surrounding most of the wave. Where exactly is the dry air located? Are those white and gray areas on the imagery simply drier than the surrounding rainbow colors? The imagery doesn't have a scale on it.

[Kennethb]

It's too early in the season to expect much development, though the MJO is going positive.

[GeneratorPower]

Kennethb, the fact that it is "too early" in the season is not really that good of a reason to discount development. We have to say, IMHO, what scientific reasons there are for or against development. The dry air argument sounds reasonable. The fact that the calendar says July, does not.

[Dean4Storms]

The dry air is impeding it from taking off, but I don't think anyone can write it off. This is why the NHC says development if any will be slow to occur. However, it appears to be winning the organizational battle to this point since yesterday, it certainly doesn't look worse.

[Ivanhater]

The dry air is impeding it from taking off, but I don't think anyone can write it off. This is why the NHC says development if any will be slow to occur. However, it appears to be winning the organizational battle to this point since yesterday, it certainly doesn't look worse.

Ya, It has been winning the battle so far, does'nt mean it can't fizzle tomorrow, but at least it is taking 1 step foreword and not 1 step back...

[skysummit]

HurricaneMaster....just a reminder when you post images created by Global Tracks or from the Hurricane Alley site, you must have the "created by Global Track" logo on it per the license agreement.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think 1# The SAL is getting into it. 2# mid level dry air is making a invasion which is stoping the rise of convection.

[Ivanhater]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 100209
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT A LITTLE MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING TOWARD UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to the NHC the system is not extremly disorganized..It has become better organized as, without any doubt, the satellite imagery suggest.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If the NHC still expect development despite the fact there is unfavorable conditions ahead of this system, then that probably means the NHC thinks this has a chance of becoming a TC. I think this system has more than a 40% chance of developing.

[Tropicswatcher]

They said there is the chance of development, basically because there are some weather models that keep developing this system.

[Ivanhater]

Well I'm off, going club'n tonight if this wave is still around tomorrow that is another step foreword

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck early this season there would of been 2 or 3 of these threads by now. I will say it has nice convection, and has slowly became better organized. But still no LLC.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The longer it stays in that low shear area the better chance it has of development.

[rockyman]

Based on current conditions, the system is about to enter an environment with 30+knots of shear (vs. the <10 knots now)...anyone have a link to the model showing an upper anticyclone forming east of the Islands?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Based on current conditions, the system is about to enter an environment with 30+knots of shear (vs. the <10 knots now)...anyone have a link to the model showing an upper anticyclone forming east of the Islands?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml
You want to go to the latest GFS run and click on upper level and you can find it from there.