Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[clfenwi]

A shot of Bud and Carlotta...what a cute couple!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A pin hole eye is developing on satellite...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Weatherfreak000]

Is this supposed to go to the Bud topic?


I don't see an eye with Carlotta, I don't even see a possible eye feature.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A small pin hole shown up for a few frames.

[Weatherfreak000]

With all due respect i'm not seeing a pin hole eye, more or else i'm just seeing a ragged looking appearance on satellite, maybe that's giving the impression of one.


But that's just me.

[WindRunner]

Looking back at the AVN loop, I think I might have seen what you're talking about Matt, but (if I'm getting this right) I wouldn't call it an eye, but rather just a little bubble in the convection. Either way, it's gone now.


EDIT: OK Matt, went back to the vis loop and definately see what you were talking about . . . it did kind of look like an eye open between N and NW, but there is still a little dent in the middle . . . I wouldn't doubt an eye popping up later tonight.

[cycloneye]

13/0000 UTC 15.7N 107.5W T3.0/3.0 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

A pin hole eye is developing on satellite...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

I really can't see anything. It is in that very deep convection that has just developed near the center? This would be amazing if a pin-hole eye formed, I forecasted a slight chance of rapid deepening tonight.

A small pin hole shown up for a few frames.

Do you have the link to the loop your looking at? I would like to see if I spot it.

bud and Carlotta are so much alike!

I agree.

This storm is large and probably won't strengthen quickly until a CDO/inner core forms. That won't happen until the northerly shear abates.

I don't see any shear right now over Carlotta. If there is, that's not going to do much in the way of how fast she strengthens because Bud had some shear over it and look what he did. I do agree though that a CDO/inner core is yet to be spotted on Carlotta.

I think Carlotta is starting to take more steps in becoming a hurricane. I see wrapping taking place finally and then she will go from there.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has at 00:00z Carlotta at 60kts,almost a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

224
WTPZ24 KNHC 130231
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



60 kts.

045
WTPZ44 KNHC 130233
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

CARLOTTA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT FEATURES
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING INSIDE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESES ESTIMATES AND THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15. CARLOTTA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BUD ABOUT 650 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS REASONABLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT. BUD IS FORECAST
TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS OR SO...WHILE
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME. OVERALL...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF
CARLOTTA...WITH CARLOTTA SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RESULT. THE
UKMET SHEARS CARLOTTA APART...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME... THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS SIGNS OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES THE GFS AND GFDL ARE
FORECASTING. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOST RESEMBLES
THAT OF THE NOGAPS...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR
FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE NEW TRACK IS
NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO DECELERATE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

CARLOTTA HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE IT IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.2N 107.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

IMO, Carlotta is a hurricane as we speak. Seems like they were quite conservative.

[clfenwi]

She's a hurricane now...NRL currently shows 70 knots.

[Cyclenall]

She's a hurricane now...NRL currently shows 70 knots.

Yep, not bad. Rapid strengthening could start to occur now because I think Carlotta has found her form. Maybe the Rapid deepening has already started. Very good looking, huge burst in convection at the center.

New % chance for Hurricane Carlotta:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 65%
Category 4 Hurricane: 20%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2%

% chance that Hurricane Carlotta will strengthen:

Slowly: 5%
Steady: 10%
Quickly: 50%
Rapidly: 70%
Wilma type Rapidly: 0.5%

% chance that Hurricane Carlotta will weaken:

Slowly: 0.9%
Steady: 0.7%
Quickly: 0.3%
Rapidly: 0.1%

[clfenwi]

The funny thing is that in the 1966-1996 climatology, July 13 was the average date for the second hurricane in the east Pacific...it's probably shifted to a little bit later...so now the season is ahead of average!

[clfenwi]

WTPZ24 KNHC 130849
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

272
WTPZ44 KNHC 130849
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006

A 0340 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT CARLOTTA IS
DEVELOPING AN EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST... THOUGH AT
THAT TIME IT HAD NOT QUITE REACHED THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
HURRICANE JUDGING FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
OCCASIONALLY SHOWS HINTS OF A DIMPLE FORMING WITHIN THE RATHER COLD
CLOUD TOPS AND IT IS POSSIBLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AN EYE
POKES OUT OF THE CDO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...IN
BETWEEN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALL
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
WITH VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WARM SSTS NEAR
29C... AND NO OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. SHIPS IS
DIAGNOSING AT LEAST 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SYMMETRIC
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE CIMSS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS WHICH SHOW
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LEFTWARD
BEND TO THE TRACK AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH SEEMS LIKELY
AND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS ARE THE
BASIS FOR AN INTENSITY FORECAST ABOVE SHIPS AND THE GFDL... WHICH
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-FORECASTING CARLOTTA. WEAKENING MAY
COMMENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT.. 285/13 KT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A SHORTER-TERM
MOTION PERHAPS EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT. THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE
MORE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS A LITTLE
STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH FORCES THE
HURRICANE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE NOGAPS NOW BRINGS
CARLOTTA NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF PREVIOUS AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE REASONABLE
REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STORM'S LIKELY FUTURE STATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.4N 109.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[cheezyWXguy]

wowza(sig. catch frase) NRL says that its at 90kt/105mph and is forecast to make it to 120kt/140mph

[WindRunner]

Where do you see this? I can't find anything but the JTWC forecast on the NRL page, which (as always) is the same as the NHC's.

[cheezyWXguy]

oops I forgot the link...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[WindRunner]

OK . . . I know what the NRL page is, but where did you go on that site to find what you said?

[WmE]

Ehhh, no! Bud is at 105kts. Carlotta is at 70kts, thus lower than the 75kts of the NHC.