Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
RattleMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 7:14 pm
Location: Phoenix, AZ

#181 Postby RattleMan » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:51 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has at 00:00z Bud at 95kts.

He is so close to major hurricane strength. I hope he can pull it off in time...

Right now strong convection is trying to wrap around the eye but it is crushing the eye in the process! :lol:


According to this image, he did reach major status.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#182 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:58 pm

RattleMan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has at 00:00z Bud at 95kts.

He is so close to major hurricane strength. I hope he can pull it off in time...

Right now strong convection is trying to wrap around the eye but it is crushing the eye in the process! :lol:


According to this image, he did reach major status.

Oh, I forgot about that. I didn't pay attention to the numbers when I was viewing the images briefly. Well, I think the 100-Knots was correct for that time and they shouldn't lower them just yet. But I was listening to Mn on TRT of IPR (I have to use these short-forms) and he said Bud didn't reach Major so that got into my head before finding out that Bud did. I'm happy now. :D
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#183 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:00 pm

TAFB went with 6.0 (115 knots) for their estimate... do the usual splitting of differences and you get 100 knots.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#184 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:26 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
I hope Bud takes a page from Epsilon and strengthens over colder water and stable air. I would like that. When Hurricane Epsilon strengthened instead of weakened, did you say beforehand that he will fall?


Epislon was in a totally different environment vertically than Bud. It's all relative. As far as what I said...I didn't say anything...wasn't interested in Epsilon at all. After a season of long nights...long days...working 40 days in a row...sometimes 20 hours a day...by that time I could not have cared less about Epsilon since it did not impact my AOR. I was burned out.

EPAC storms do NOT beat the odds like Epsilon did when they move into cooler waters and stable air. Doesn't happen...and won't happen now. He's got another 12 hours or so before he starts down the slippery slope.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145950
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#185 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:36 pm

TCMEP3
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


Major cane,100kts.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34009
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#186 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:39 pm

Can he keep going? Or is this the tip of the iceberg?
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#187 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Can he keep going? Or is this the tip of the iceberg?


Isn't that the same thing? :D

I think another 5-10 knots is possible but any more is unlikely...it will have to come very quickly.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145950
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#188 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:44 pm

TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BUD HAS HAS AGAIN UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TO MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS. SATELLITE
ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE EYE WALL HAS CLOSED OFF COMPLETELY
OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN MINUS 80
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 115 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND AN ODT OF
5.4 (99.6 KT) AT 00Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100
KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A
LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREFORE...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BUD ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE CREATED BY A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W
SHOULD INFLUENCE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. BY DAY 4...A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER BUD IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE
GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 17.1N 118.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#189 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:52 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
I hope Bud takes a page from Epsilon and strengthens over colder water and stable air. I would like that. When Hurricane Epsilon strengthened instead of weakened, did you say beforehand that he will fall?


Epsilon was in a totally different environment vertically than Bud. It's all relative. As far as what I said...I didn't say anything...wasn't interested in Epsilon at all. After a season of long nights...long days...working 40 days in a row...sometimes 20 hours a day...by that time I could not have cared less about Epsilon since it did not impact my AOR. I was burned out.

I was getting a bit tried too tracking all those storms myself! Also in my last post about this I said I knew that Epsilon was in a totally different environment and things aren't the same, ect.

EPAC storms do NOT beat the odds like Epsilon did when they move into cooler waters and stable air.

Why?

Doesn't happen...and won't happen now. He's got another 12 hours or so before he starts down the slippery slope.

Hmm.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#190 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:03 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Why?


Because they are in a tropical environment atmospherically...but the waters are cool. That creates 1) a warm over cool situation...which is very stable and 2) you have cool waters which won't support the storm.

That warm over cool stable air can be seen by all the strato-cu that is visible on the visible sat imagery. That's what causes it and why you so rarely see thunderstorms in that area...the atmosphere is so stable.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#191 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:06 pm

Well well well, it looks like Hurricane Bud became a Major hurricane afterall. Well that is ok by me since I gave the % chance of that happening over 50% last time I did it. Didn't someone say it's all downward from here? It went upward though.

Can he keep going? Or is this the tip of the iceberg?

I'm not sure, he could keep getting stronger during the next 6 hours before reaching his peak.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#192 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:22 pm

Since Beatriz, 1999, the EPAC didn't have a "B" hurricane and a"B" major hurricane.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#193 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:36 am

New % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 100%
Category 4 Hurricane: 14%
Category 5 Hurricane: 3%

I wonder what I will wake up to tomorrow morning. Bud's eye remains the same as when he was at peak.

% chance that Major Hurricane Bud will strengthen:

Slowly: 50%
Steady: 35%
Quickly: 15%
Rapidly: 4%
Wilma type Rapidly: 0.003% ( :lol: )

% chance that Major Hurricane Bud will weaken:

Slowly: 65%
Steady: 68%
Quickly: 40%
Rapidly: 10%
0 likes   

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#194 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:45 am

Cyclenall wrote:New % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:


:lol: Out of curiousity, how do you formulate your percentages? I can see doing 10%, 20%, 30%, etc, but 14%? 8%? What would have to be different for the likelihood of "Steady" strengthening to be 67% or 69% rather than 68%? Just curious as to why (and how) you are being so precise in your percentages... Maybe if you're running some sort of model, but that's quite the precision (1%) to have if you're just eyeballing everything and looking at model forecasts and analyses.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#195 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:06 am

The eye has cleared out even more with still deep convection. I give it another few hours of strengthing. Maybe 105 to 110 knots right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#196 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:08 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:New % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:


:lol: Out of curiousity, how do you formulate your percentages? I can see doing 10%, 20%, 30%, etc, but 14%? 8%? What would have to be different for the likelihood of "Steady" strengthening to be 67% or 69% rather than 68%? Just curious as to why (and how) you are being so precise in your percentages... Maybe if you're running some sort of model, but that's quite the precision (1%) to have if you're just eyeballing everything and looking at model forecasts and analyses.

:lol: No, I don't use any software, models, etc for my percentages. It's just based off what I think will happen in the future with these TC's and putting it into %'s. It's not pro at all, just sort of guessing and non-scientific work. The 1% precision is just being silly. I'm sure the NHC has better % then mine and they use software, models and such.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#197 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:33 am

Wait a minute, Bud is starting to go wild again. He is now at 110 Knots according to the NRL!!! Rapid strengthening still taking place? Unreal. His pressure is at 953 mb. Category 4 may not be as impossible as we first thought. All i'm going to say is the East Pacific is bombing with active storms.

Bud's eye is very healthy looking (best yet) and he seems to be a good shape. I will post more soon.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#198 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:41 am

Hopefully they bump him up to a cat4!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#199 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:45 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Hopefully they bump him up to a cat4!!!

Do you think Bud will get that high? I sure hope so!
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#200 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:48 am

Very new % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 100%
Category 4 Hurricane: 40%
Category 5 Hurricane: 5%

These numbers are bumped up because of what has occurred during the past 2 hours with Bud. His eye looks great and I can't wait to find out what will happen tomorrow.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 39 guests