MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NRN NJ / SERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 593...
   
   VALID 122049Z - 122145Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN
   PORTIONS OF WW AREA.
   
   SUPERCELL WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO OVER WESTCHESTER COUNTY
   IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN FAIRFIELD COUNTY MOVING INTO THE LONG ISLAND
   SOUND. OTHER LESS ORGANIZED STORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER NRN NJ
   AND FAR ERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR MSV TO NEAR TTN.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND
   ALBANY/UPTON VWPS INDICATE THAT MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   ROTATING STORMS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT WHERE SURFACE WINDS
   HAVE REMAINED MORE SLY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...A W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXISTS ACROSS NRN NJ FROM E OF ABE EWD TO NEAR EWR.  THE GREATEST
   THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY
   STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO FAR NRN NJ/FAR SERN
   NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM
   SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.  TO THE W OF THIS N-S ORIENTED WIND SHIFT...IT
   APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED TO SOME DEGREE.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS COULD
   RE-DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   40387661 42117568 42297429 42107320 41087319 40127444
   39807566

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122129Z - 122330Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL /IN ADDITION TO
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE. THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED AS TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER
   /ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CLOVIS NM TO NORTH OF HOBBS NM/...WITH ADDITIONAL
   CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
   AMIDST A CORRIDOR OF MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE /IN WAKE OF EARLIER
   MCV/. WITHIN THIS AREA...MLCAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
   NEGLIGIBLE CINH. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS/ AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
   EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
   WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   33500160 32690224 32680309 34350323 35090224 36150004
   35099979 34510062

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 122216Z - 130015Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
   RAINFALL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK
   INTO WESTERN AR. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ON FRINGE OF REMNANT NORTH CENTRAL OK MCV...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED
   ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ROUGHLY
   ORIENTED WEST-EAST FROM NEAR ADA/MCALESTER OK TO NEAR FORT
   SMITH/RUSSELVILLE AR. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY
   CAPPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS.
   STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR /ESPECIALLY
   BETWEEN ADA-MCALESTER AS OF 22Z/...AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPSWING IN
   THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARILY
   FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY. ASIDE FROM
   PULSE-TYPE MICROBURST/HAIL POTENTIAL...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/TRAINING
   STORM MOTIONS IN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES WILL FAVOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
   34069703 34989694 35469555 35909313 36049235 35669201
   35069226 34629356 34279490 33999579

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...
   
   VALID 122355Z - 130100Z
   
   REMAINING PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 WILL EXPIRE AT
   00Z.
   
   EARLIER BAND OF TSTMS...INCLUDING AN ISOLD SUPERCELL...THAT PROMPTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 HAS MOVED EWD AND DIMINISHED OVER LONG
   ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RENEWED STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER
   CNTRL PA ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/VCNTY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE EARLY
   THIS EVENING AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS
   /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN PA.  THESE
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE AUGMENTED BY A WEAK MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
   TRAVERSING CNTRL PA. 
   
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN SUNSET...TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH
   THROUGH THE EVE.  BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ECNTRL/SERN PA.  STATE COLLEGE
   VWP SHOWS ABOUT 30 KTS OF FLOW IN THE FIRST FEW GATES ABOVE GROUND.
   A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   40107687 41397619 41997486 41907368 40417443 39867600

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0905 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130205Z - 130330Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR LAST SENTENCE
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD
   ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY.  A RATHER DISORGANIZED
   AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
   ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS.
   00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN
   THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/
   WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW
   IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO
   THE CONVECTION.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
   
   45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...NERN TN...SRN WV THROUGH S CNTRL AND SRN
   VA AND NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131518Z - 131715Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BY
   17Z-18Z.
   
   A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDS FROM NERN TN...THROUGH ERN
   KY...SRN WV AND SRN VA. S AND SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG HEATING
   WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH
   MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL SERVE AS FOCI
   FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
   MOVING EWD THROUGH KY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
   MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND 25 TO 30 KT WLY FLOW AROUND 2 KM
   SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   36268085 35798276 36128359 37328295 38118123 37807865
   37607745 36377795

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME NWRN IA AND
   EXTREME SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131647Z - 131845Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED OVER SERN SD
   THROUGH ERN NEB IS INCREASING. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH SWRN NEB.
   E OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
   HAS ADVECTED NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN SD.
   EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL NEB NEWD THROUGH
   ERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
   CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. MORNING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RUC RAOB DATA
   SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO BECOME
   SURFACE BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE
   THAT ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE
   SEWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL
   STORMS. HOWEVER...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
   DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
   FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   41209634 40599759 41299941 43059880 44509825 44429684
   42919605

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131757Z - 132000Z
   
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL. A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
   
   LIKELY BEING AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MDT-TOWERING CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG A
   GENERAL NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MO.
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED BOTH NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
   MO...AND ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AS OF 1745Z. INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH AN OVERALL UPSWING IN INTENSITY IS
   ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
   
   CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...RUC
   BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE MODIFIED 12Z DAVENPORT RAOB SUGGEST
   THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
   MLCAPES ARE ALREADY ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH 3000
   J/KG OR GREATER POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER SHORT TERM RUC
   GUIDANCE. WINCHESTER IL PROFILER AND DAVENPORT/ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWPS
   ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST WIND PROFILES...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER PULSE/ISOLATED IN NATURE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   41099332 41719232 40848997 38868900 37708986 38209113

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131851Z - 132045Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   FROM THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. MONITORING FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD A FAIRLY MOIST/PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   THIS AFTERNOON...OVERCOMING REMAINING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE. INTERSPERSED
   BETWEEN HIGHER CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEEPENED
   OVER THE PAST HOUR PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
   DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...WITH ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ALREADY NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN.
   
   SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z ABERDEEN RAOB
   MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000-2500 J/KG
   MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST ALONG THE FRONTAL
   ZONE...SUGGESTING MULTICELL CLUSTERS/FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   47879766 48919707 48719482 45919459 44749504 44849660
   44959734 46599766

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA...NRN MO AND NERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131953Z - 132100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   SERN NEB...NERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL IA AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND
   INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
   AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.
   
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN NEB NEWD THROUGH NWRN IA. THE
   ATMOSPHERE SE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG. THE 18Z SOUNDING DATA SHOW
   THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO BEGIN TO FORWARD
   PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   39699219 39349505 40779661 41459573 42349509 42059341
   40519184

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132040Z - 132245Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NEB INTO
   NWRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NEB NEAR O'NEILL
   SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB
   NEAR MCCOOK INTO NWRN KS. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
   ERN NEB SWWD TO NEAR LEXINGTON. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS FOCI
   FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE CAP WEAKENS. RICH LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXISTS S AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   AND MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
   INCREASING OVER SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY
   DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER
   WEAK...BUT WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 KM.
   HOWEVER..PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS
   INCREASED...RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT. THIS IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
   TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND DEVELOP SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL
   JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   40340031 40529939 40399681 39259674 39060018

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST TN/FAR SOUTHERN
   WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595...
   
   VALID 132131Z - 132300Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 CONTINUES UNTIL
   01Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL
   /ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
   VA/FAR NORTHERN NC.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG/OFF THE
   APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...FOCUSED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHERN VA ALONG A WEST-EAST DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY -- 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
   OR GREATER -- IN PLACE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST/TRAINING
   STORM MOTIONS IN A RELATIVELY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
   
   37358102 37488018 37577759 37047636 36307600 36097748
   36237928 35938216 36798203

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD/FAR EASTERN ND AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...
   
   VALID 132227Z - 140000Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH CONTINUED
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 596 ACROSS MN.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
   SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/POTENT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS/FEW SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS
   MOST OF WW 596.
   
   ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF EXISTING EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
   STORMS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FURTHER
   EAST...STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN /BETWEEN
   BEMIDJI-HIBBING/ SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN UPON ENCOUNTERING A LESS
   FAVORABLE AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH
   EAST OF WW 596 THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   48509723 48719549 48449376 47779263 45729355 44709429
   44729596 44849725 46759727

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132300Z - 140100Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVE ACROSS ERN KS
   AND NRN/WRN MO.  THIS INCLUDES THE KSTJ AND KMCI METRO AREAS.  LARGE
   HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.  A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   AREAS S AND E OF WS 597/598.
   
   CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY KOMA DURING THE MID-
   AFTN HAS EXPANDED AND A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED. LEADING
   EDGE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FORWARD
   PROPAGATION LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ERN KS AND
   NRN/WRN MO. 
   
   22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT SEWD FROM THE TSTM COMPLEX SEWD
   INTO NERN MO.  SW OF THIS FRONT...AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY
   WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO
   3500 J PER KG...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE
   KS/MO BORDER.  AFTN RAOBS SUGGESTED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN
   INCREASING FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN
   NEB...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS IS LIKELY.
   
   
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF THE COLD POOL...CONTRIBUTING TO AN
   OVERALL MCS MOTION TO THE SSE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH NRN/WRN MO AND ERN KS DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SERN KS AND PARTS OF
   THE OZARKS AFTER 01-02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
   REQUIRED ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   40509442 39509259 37949233 37349339 37359517 38269746
   40059753

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595...
   
   VALID 140025Z - 140130Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z.
   ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION/WW 595...SOME THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NC OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE VA/NC
   BORDER.
   
   COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED ORIGINAL WEST-EAST
   BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO THE FAR NORTHERN NC
   PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG AND ADJACENT TO WW 595...ANY SHORT
   TERM SEVERE THREAT RESIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE NEARING THE I-85
   CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL NC /AS OF 0015Z/. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR
   REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE VIA PERSISTENCE OF 80S F TEMP/LOWER 70S
   F DEWPOINTS...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. EVEN WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN REPETITIVE STORM MOTIONS/RELATIVELY HIGH
   MOISTURE CONTENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...
   
   35618019 36427990 36537889 36567754 36497648 36217568
   35847560 35567684 35577890

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...
   
   VALID 140026Z - 140200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITHIN WS 594 THIS EVENING.
   
   EVOLUTION OF A SWD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EVIDENT WELL SE OF THE WW THIS
   EVENING.  THERE HAS BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE COLD POOL
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ECNTRL NEB AND WCNTRL IA RECENTLY...POSING
   PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER W...A NARROW RIBBON OF
   INSTABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL AND AHEAD
   OF A LEE TROUGH.  VSBL SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CU WITHIN THIS
   ZONE ARE NOT GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY...PRESUMABLY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN
   CINH.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN MAY BACKBUILD SWWD
   INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT THE
   PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING SHOULD DECREASE AS PRIMARY LLJ
   FOCUSES FARTHER S AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER NRN MO/NERN KS BY LATE
   EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
   
   40749913 44539750 44559406 40639594

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MN/FAR EASTERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...
   
   VALID 140059Z - 140230Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 CONTINUES UNTIL
   03Z...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF
   WW 596 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL ALSO
   DEVELOP EAST OF WW 596 TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES METRO OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO...AND A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION APPEARS IMMINENT.
   
   VIA CONGLOMERATION OF EARLIER TSTMS...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS
   EVOLVED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS COLD POOL APPEARS
   TO BE DRIVING A SMALL SCALE MCS NEAR HUTCHINSON/LITCHFIELD MN ABOUT
   40 W OF MSP AS OF 0045Z...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TWIN
   CITIES METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. THE 00Z MPX OBSERVED RAOB WAS
   REPRESENTATIVE OF A FAIRLY UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH 1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN...STORMS INTENSITY
   HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS/INCREASING
   SURFACE CINH.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   47749588 47829362 46379337 45109297 44549367 44639491
   44779666 45219686 46679609

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...SERN NEB...NRN/CNTRL MO...WCNTRL IL...SRN
   IA...SERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140220Z - 140415Z
   
   LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE LINEAR MCS ARCS FROM ERN IA ACROSS NRN MO
   AND NERN KS AT 02Z.  00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY AXIS FROM S OF KANSAS CITY ESEWD INTO AREAS JUST WEST OF
   ST. LOUIS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 3-3.5 KJ PER KG ALONG/S OF A WARM
   FRONT. PRIND THAT THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST IN
   THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVE.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR S THE
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD...BUT GIVEN THE STORMS ARE
   BEGINNING TO MOVE S OF THE STRONGER WLYS...A TRANSITION INTO MORE OF
   A HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY. 
   
   FARTHER W...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND
   NCNTRL KS ATOP THE COLD POOL EMANATING FROM THE NRN MO MCS.
   PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ WAS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS
   NRN/ERN KS INTO NRN MO.  OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE
   LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA ATOP A WEAK COLD BUBBLE/MESO
   HIGH.  THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE A LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
   THREATS.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   37750060 40529967 41689654 42089429 41329199 39579116
   38049188 37609425 37529762

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140607Z - 140730Z
   
   HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS A LARGE
   MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
   AND SRN KS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS WRN AR INTO SE
   KS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE SWD IN NERN OK AND NW AR AND THIS SHOULD
   SUSTAIN THE MCS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SSEWD
   ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THE LATEST PROFILER DATA OVER SERN KS SHOW
   ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MCS IS MOVING AWAY
   FROM THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER NE KS AND THIS ALONG WITH
   STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A
   GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A WW MIGHT BE CONSIDERED LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   38769491 38479434 37749395 37039392 36159410 35639489
   35599563 35799647 36329687 37259707 38219693 38769611

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW WI...SE MN AND NW IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140634Z - 140800Z
   
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR
   SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN IL
   INTO SW WI AND SE MN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS SHOULD
   HELP SUSTAIN THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SE MN FOR A COUPLE
   MORE HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY OVER WRN MN. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK
   SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT/ AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
   SEVERE THREAT SHORT-LIVED. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
   RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE MCS MOVES EWD INTO WCNTRL
   WI.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   44909022 44588962 44068936 43538929 43048958 42798983
   42629070 42659154 42919231 43489269 44439246 44959154