Tropical Storm Beryl
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- wxman57
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Aric Dunn wrote:Still not N or NNW ... 290 maybe 295
I believe you're looking at some sort of optical illusion. I have a good shot of the center and it appears to be moving toward 350 degrees. There was an expansion of the western side of the low cloud mass an hour or so ago which could give the illusion of a WNW-NW movement, but it's tightened up now along about 73.6W and 34.2 or 34.3N I had calculated a movement from 3pm-6pm of about 360 degrees at 10 kts.
Squalls are almost all gone tonight. I'm not so sure it'll regenerate, but I wouldn't count it out now. I seriously doubt it still has TS-force winds with no convection, but the NHC will leave it as is overnight due to the good chance that the convection will return.
Still looks like Beryl 1 on the 17th was a lot stronger.

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I understand where you are coming from.. but i have calculated something different .. as well as radar and satellite,... I know your a pro met and all but i have been doing this for a long time and im not seeing optical illusions... .. i do agree that there is not likley any ts force winds .. but direction im not wrong.......
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- cheezyWXguy
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Aric Dunn wrote:about 34.2N 73.8N
I don't think it's quite that far west. Perhaps 73.6 or 73.7. Here's a new image with the center quite visible:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl5.jpg
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you can plott individual storm motion and calcualte the center from there using satellite and surface obs .. really i have been plotting it since about 4 this afternoon .. even with the NHC plotts .. my plots on where ths center has been and its motion have not been 350 .. they were earlier today but as of about 6 or 7 it has been 305 at the most
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