Tropical Storm Beryl

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boca
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#521 Postby boca » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:15 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Looking at the visible doesn't look like in the last 2 frames to be heading NW instead of NNW.
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#522 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:16 pm

very true JAMES .. its still TS .... the point is the LLC is the Storm and what ever it does is where the strom goes ... the mid circ is not the storm .... the center is the center
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#523 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:17 pm

radar.. tells the real story not the night time visible
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#524 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:17 pm

Still not N or NNW ... 290 maybe 295
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#525 Postby whereverwx » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:40 pm

Some of it is visible on the long range right now.

Image
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#526 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Still not N or NNW ... 290 maybe 295


I believe you're looking at some sort of optical illusion. I have a good shot of the center and it appears to be moving toward 350 degrees. There was an expansion of the western side of the low cloud mass an hour or so ago which could give the illusion of a WNW-NW movement, but it's tightened up now along about 73.6W and 34.2 or 34.3N I had calculated a movement from 3pm-6pm of about 360 degrees at 10 kts.

Squalls are almost all gone tonight. I'm not so sure it'll regenerate, but I wouldn't count it out now. I seriously doubt it still has TS-force winds with no convection, but the NHC will leave it as is overnight due to the good chance that the convection will return.

Still looks like Beryl 1 on the 17th was a lot stronger. ;-)
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#527 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:47 pm

I understand where you are coming from.. but i have calculated something different .. as well as radar and satellite,... I know your a pro met and all but i have been doing this for a long time and im not seeing optical illusions... .. i do agree that there is not likley any ts force winds .. but direction im not wrong.......
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#528 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:49 pm

it is 295 to 305 at the most right now... unless it get convection it not going begin moving north again.....
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#529 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:50 pm

the circ. itself looks to be more symmetrical than an hour or so ago...I think it will regenerate and once again aquire TS status for sure
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#530 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:53 pm

And i know all system wabble and that may a wabble ( a 75 mile wabble to the WNW or just slightly N of WNW ) but Not 350... now it may start to move 350 if we get more convection but right now steering at that level is not to 350
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#531 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:And i know all system wabble and that may a wabble ( a 75 mile wabble to the WNW or just slightly N of WNW ) but Not 350... now it may start to move 350 if we get more convection but right now steering at that level is not to 350


Where do you see the center now?
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#532 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:55 pm

and the 350 could start at anytime ... again .. with the increase of convection on the north side( even though its very minimal right now and being sheared right off) but otherwise it will be approaching the northern outer bank in the morning
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#533 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:57 pm

about 34.2N 73.8N
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#534 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:about 34.2N 73.8N


I don't think it's quite that far west. Perhaps 73.6 or 73.7. Here's a new image with the center quite visible:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl5.jpg
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#535 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:59 pm

WNW of the nhc advisory .. at 8 and the 11pm no 350 .... it would be farther north .. justt do the plotting you'll see i have checked and rechecked
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#536 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:01 pm

man thats 11:15 EST .. im talking as of two minutes ago
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#537 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:03 pm

And yes thats the center... my point is .. it has not been heading 350 for the past at least 5 hours... or more... be it a wabble or whatever you want to call it.. it has not been 350
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#538 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:05 pm

Morehead radar.. tells a much better story than any satellite on motion and plotting.. Im using GR with all the add on's i have gotten pretty good at what i do ..
i can tell the difference
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#539 Postby AJC3 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:06 pm

Just thought I'd chime in here quickly. I have 3.9UM IR overlaid with our AWIPS XRTAP tool. I came up with a 4-hr movement of 350/06kt.
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#540 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:08 pm

you can plott individual storm motion and calcualte the center from there using satellite and surface obs .. really i have been plotting it since about 4 this afternoon .. even with the NHC plotts .. my plots on where ths center has been and its motion have not been 350 .. they were earlier today but as of about 6 or 7 it has been 305 at the most
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