99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[wxman57]

Thanks 57. 8.5N 48W

I studied a loop of that image. It's possible there could be another weak vorticity center there, one much weaker than the center farther east. But cloud motions at different levels can be quite tricky on the eye.

[wxman57]

No

Here, this image may help:

Is that imagery available to the public?

No, it's from our client-side web pages. I had suggested that I could find out how we're making them and pass the info to the S2K "satellite people". Our images do not delete any cloud data at all, so even the tiny cumulus clouds show up over the colored background. Other methods remove certain temperature levels or colors, degrading the resolution of the final image.

[Stormavoider]

It beats all I have seen!

[wxman57]

It beats all I have seen!

Here, I zoomed in a bit and made a new image. The spin along 46W appears to be decreasing.

[cheezyWXguy]

the convection stream appears to be dying off slowly, no more reds, and spotty new convection is forming

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

also, what do you mean by dying off...is it reforming? weakening? or did u make a typo and mean 48.5W?

[storms in NC]

Is there a way that the low can reform more to the west?

[boca]

Dry air is killing 99L is just amazing were just about into August and these systems are still dying off.

[Scorpion]

Dry air is killing 99L is just amazing were just about into August and these systems are still dying off.

Not really. Remember last year? It was the same problem for CV waves. It will abate by mid-August.

[boca]

Scorpion we never had a cape verde season last year.

[cheezyWXguy]

we had irene and emily

[Thunder44]

819
NOUS42 KNHC 291345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 29 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR
12.0N 059.0W FOR 31/1800Z.
3. REMARKS.....BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES 01/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
CDL

[boca]

True forgot about those,their were so many.

[kenl01]

I have doubts that major development will happen anytime soon with this system. Looks too elongated now with no organized convection. Conditions have not been good this season at all so far. Reminds me of that earlier topic "the year of the invest"

[storms in NC]

The ridge is to move off to the north in 72 hours. That might be why they say slow to develop. and it would be if any.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif

[Scorpion]

Actually I believe that the ridge abating is a good thing, since the pressures will fall and instability will increase. Also the shear should decrease too. I could be wrong though.

[cheezyWXguy]

True forgot about those,their were so many.

yeah, the only cat 5 in the atlantic in july is pretty insignificant

[Thunder44]

I see an outflow boundary coming from the center. The system won't be developing anymore today.

[Scorpion]

I see an outflow boundary coming from the center. The system won't be developing anymore today.

Darn . Time to watch the Caribbean wave.

[kenl01]

from AccuWx tropical discussion:

In the open Atlantic Ocean, a tropical wave, located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving toward the west at 15 mph. There appears to be a circulation with it, as clouds and thunderstorms rotate about it. The tropical wave is poorly organized and should remain poorly organized during the next day or so, as an easterly shear exists over and around the wave.

[KatDaddy]

The weaker the system the further W it will come before turning N.