INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

#41 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:45 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Do you have a link? Thanks.

Dixie..it's the Skeetobite image at the top of the page.

#42 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:47 pm

Um - folks - this is a TD/TS off the Lesser Antilles. NOT panic time. This happens several times every year, and it's very unlikely to cause a major in the oil patch.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #43 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:49 pm

Looks like the LLC(Yes it is one)has become even more developed which now you can clearly see. Also convection has been firing up...The thing hurting the system is northwestly shear of 20 knots...Which is pushing the convection off. On the last few frames it shows convection is starting to fire over the LLC. This LLC looks very good right now...Would not at all be suprized if this was upgraded to a 1.5/2.0t later today. With it about ready to go through the islands the nhc needs to watch this.

#44 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:49 pm

skysummit wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Do you have a link? Thanks.

Dixie..it's the Skeetobite image at the top of the page.

Thank you much!

#45 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:50 pm

curtadams wrote:Um - folks - this is a TD/TS off the Lesser Antilles.

Not yet, its not.

Scorpion · #46 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:50 pm

It's very close.

NONAME · #47 Postby **NONAME** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:52 pm

Matt on page 1 Cyclone eye said taht T-Numbers were up to 1.5 and no it not a TD yet The NHC will tell you when it is a TD have they said anything yet no so its not. IMO it will be one later tonight or tommorow.

Grease Monkey · #48 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:52 pm

Shear is being a jerk.

Hurricaneman · #49 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:52 pm

Have to wait till the Dvorak#s are 2.0 or reading from recon, or NHC recognition, those are the ways to find out at this point in the game

Grease Monkey · #50 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:54 pm

NONAME wrote:Matt on page 1 Cyclone eye said taht T-Numbers were up to 1.5 and no it not a TD yet The NHC will tell you when it is a TD have they said anything yet no so its not. IMO it will be one later tonight or tommorow.

Isn't it possible that it's already is a TD, but the NHC just doesn't think it's necessary to come out with a special report?

#51 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:55 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like the LLC(Yes it is one)has become even more developed which now you can clearly see. Also convection has been firing up...The thing hurting the system is northwestly shear of 20 knots...Which is pushing the convection off. On the last few frames it shows convection is starting to fire over the LLC. This LLC looks very good right now...Would not at all be suprized if this was upgraded to a 1.5/2.0t later today. With it about ready to go through the islands the nhc needs to watch this.

You have a sharp NE-Sw orientated CUSP...you do not have a LLC. Get out the vis-a-vis and write on the monitor and the cusp will come alive...and you will see there are no eastward moving cloud elements. The LLC does not look that good because it isn't there in ground-relative terms. Stop following the center with your eyes. Grab a marker and analyze the elements.

It's a cusp. NE-SW and sharp...close to being closed but not yet.

Thunder44 · #52 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:55 pm

Dvorak numbers have no bearing on classifying this system as a TD. It's needs to have a closed surface circulation.

jabber · #53 Postby **jabber** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:56 pm

I gotta admit to my untrained eyes this invest looks pretty good. It it a TD yet.... No according to the NHC. Will it be one, who knows. Its getting pretty close to the islands and I bet if the NHC was very worried they would have sent recon in already.... lets all take a deep breath and see what mother nature has in store for us. As far as where its going, thats anyones guess. The one thing I have learned is models are pretty much useless until you have a cleary defined LLC to initilize with. just my .2

shaggy · #54 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:58 pm

i thought they dissolved the low in the 205 TWD they no longer analyze this as a wave witha low pressure instead as an open trough! No TD or storm and its chances are lessening!

#55 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:58 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Shear is being a jerk.

It's not just shear. Shear and dry air are both teaming up.

#56 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:58 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like the LLC(Yes it is one)has become even more developed which now you can clearly see. Also convection has been firing up...The thing hurting the system is northwestly shear of 20 knots...Which is pushing the convection off. On the last few frames it shows convection is starting to fire over the LLC. This LLC looks very good right now...Would not at all be suprized if this was upgraded to a 1.5/2.0t later today. With it about ready to go through the islands the nhc needs to watch this.

You have a sharp NE-Sw orientated CUSP...you do not have a LLC. Get out the vis-a-vis and write on the monitor and the cusp will come alive...and you will see there are no eastward moving cloud elements. The LLC does not look that good because it isn't there in ground-relative terms. Stop following the center with your eyes. Grab a marker and analyze the elements.

It's a cusp. NE-SW and sharp...close to being closed but not yet.

Looking really close, I see exactly what AFM is talking about. To the untrained eye, it's like a trick of the eyes. It looks like a closed low, but it's not..not quite yet. Thanks AFM for pointing that out.

#57 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:02 pm

I will admit that yesterday I was all for writing off 99L. THe last satellite image is impressive. The NHC still isn't bullish on this completely developing so far, but I would be surprised not to see a recon sent tommorrow if it continues to look this good or better.

#58 Postby **Fego** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:02 pm

TWD 2:00 p.m.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 55W/56W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED
TO 60/61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REMOVED AND ANALYZED AS A
TROF FROM 13N58W TO 18N56W. THIS CHANGE WAS MADE DUE TO LOW/MID
CLOUD MOTIONS AND WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DETACHED...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN TROF PORTION MOVING MORE WNW. THIS MAY
BE REANALYZED AS A SINGLE/CURVED WAVE IN THE 18Z ANALYSIS BUT
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.
SHIP...BUOY...AND CLOUD MOTIONS ABOUT 250NM EAST OF DOMINICA
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W STILL SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC
TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
TROF AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #59 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:05 pm

Scorpion wrote:I think recon should get called back in.

Once recon is called off... it takes at least 24-hours notice to call them back in.

#60 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:05 pm

>>I'm going to Playa Del Carmen/Cozumel Friday. Hmm...

You don't have the looks in your avatar like you'll be minding a little bad weather down there. Hell, you might not even notice it. :ggreen:

Steve

INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

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