Tropical Storm Chris

[shaggy]

sorry for florida and the GOM if he does get there and is a cane by then.Good thing that high is so strong or i would have to watch this more closely!

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

I would imagine we are gonna see some further strengthening into this evening and possibly over night. It looks to be a little less affected by the shear and the blow up is trying to cover the center. Let's see if it last or if shear pushes those clouds off of the center again.

[mtm4319]

I hate to bring this up, but the potential track here has reminded me of Georges, except maybe 50-75 miles to the NE.

[Grease Monkey]

Is dry air stilll a factor right now?

[sunny]

I hate to bring this up, but the potential track here has reminded me of Georges, except maybe 50-75 miles to the NE.

I've been thinking the same.....

[JBP]

The Georges track would definitely not be a good thing

[WindRunner]

I'm back - map shortly. Thanks for taking over StormsAhead.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Scorpion]

The outflow is pretty ominous. Reminds of me of storms that intensified to hurricanes on short notice.

[Trugunzn]

itll be interesting how strong the winds will be when they fly back again into that strong convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

itll be interesting how strong the winds will be when they fly back again into that strong convection.

I was thinking it is perfect timing.

[Trugunzn]

is that blue square where the center is?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The convection is right over the center...Which means that the shear is weaking big time...I would not be suprized if he made a run at hurricane.

[SouthFloridawx]

is that blue sguare the center?

Well it's an estimated center.. here is the site I got it from.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

[Canelaw99]

mtm We don't need to be giving Chris any ideas

[HouTXmetro]

well I predicted a 70mph Storm by Sunday, looks like that may be on the low end.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012009
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 21 KNHC
1957. 1710N 06210W 00300 0034 321 020 246 228 020 00345 0000000000
1958 1709N 06210W 00301 0035 316 021 244 212 021 00347 0000000000
1958. 1707N 06211W 00300 0035 309 021 246 214 022 00345 0000000000
1959 1705N 06211W 00301 0035 314 022 244 222 022 00346 0000000000
1959. 1704N 06211W 00300 0035 316 022 242 214 023 00346 0000000000
2000 1702N 06210W 00302 0036 317 019 242 216 020 00348 0000000000
2000. 1700N 06210W 00298 0036 317 017 244 220 018 00344 0000000000
2001 1659N 06209W 00302 0035 319 018 244 210 018 00348 0000000000
2001. 1657N 06208W 00298 0035 325 019 246 208 020 00343 0000000000
2002 1656N 06208W 00303 0034 317 020 242 224 020 00348 0000000000
2002. 1654N 06207W 00300 0034 313 019 246 224 020 00344 0000000000
2003 1652N 06207W 00301 0034 309 019 246 218 020 00346 0000000000
2003. 1651N 06206W 00301 0034 304 016 246 220 018 00346 0000000000
2004 1649N 06205W 00299 0035 299 016 246 236 016 00344 0000000000
2004. 1648N 06205W 00300 0035 308 016 242 238 016 00346 0000000000
2005 1646N 06204W 00304 0037 308 016 242 240 017 00351 0000000000
2005. 1645N 06204W 00297 0037 303 016 246 242 016 00345 0000000000
2006 1643N 06202W 00302 0037 299 016 244 242 016 00350 0000000000
2006. 1642N 06201W 00301 0037 292 014 244 242 015 00349 0000000000
2007 1641N 06200W 00302 0038 277 012 242 238 012 00351 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is my thinking...The shear looks to have decreased big time over the last few hours...A Cdo is starting to develop over the center...With it moving west-northwest at over 17 north...I think there is a very good chance this makes it north of Hati/Dr. As the ULL backs to the southwest...Which should vent this system. I say it will become a hurricane with in 24 hours.

[WindRunner]

[timNms]

NWS in Jackson MS mentions Chris. I hope it fizzles!!

http://kamala.cod.edu/ms/latest.fxus64.KJAN.html

ANOTHER EXTREMELY SMALL WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE QUESTION MARK OF CURRENT TS CHRIS...WAY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST STEERING CURRENTS MAY STEER THE SYSTEM IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. THAT IS A BIG 'IF' RIGHT NOW...SO DEFINITELY NOT ANYTHING TO GET EXCITED ABOUT YET.