Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is up to 60mph! That's more than they thought it would be in 5 days!

[shaggy]

cant wait till next year when we can finally get past the "rita" and "katrina" references......This storm is also tracking like a dozen other storms and it may never even get close to the track or intensity of rita!

I think it will take a LONG time before Rita and, especially; Katrina references subside.

i dont want to come across as downplaying their destruction but to compare apples to oranges is getting a bit tiresome.If it was september then the ridge setup would be different and we would be getting "this is just like floyd" post!..

Chris is going to make a name for himself and thats what people need to focus on not what he reminds them of!

I don't want to stray too far from Chris but it is totally normal to reference prior storms.
They are our points of reference.
Like the "so in so looks like" or "this game reminds me of" etc....

It is real hard to discuss a storm or even a situation without comparing it to something else one has experienced!

Then, you end up using the current situation as a refrence for future situations.

It's just human nature!

fci steps off of soapbox......

well here is a historical reference to TS in this same area and none and i mean NONE had a rita track and in fact only one headed into the GOM and it wasn't a rita track!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

[duris]

Regarding Katrina references, people in my office are so shell shocked that they keep saying how much Chris looks like Katrina. Right now, I think that a blob would remind them of Katrina. Fortunately, my wife told them she listens to no one but me, and I get the good info from folks here and told her its not close.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, but I use evidence to support that, Extremeweatherguy.

[jusforsean]

See - if the NHC had listened to us they wouldn't have had to issue this special advisory We've been telling them the 45mph was too low

They should really follow the board here before they issue an advisory

[drezee]

397
URNT12 KNHC 012108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/20:41:00Z
B. 17 deg 53 min N
060 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 10 kt
E. 219 deg 096 nm
F. 228 deg 043 kt
G. 191 deg 033 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C/ 298 m
J. 30 C/ 459 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 13
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[drezee]

Pressure down to 1003mb

397
URNT12 KNHC 012108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/20:41:00Z
B. 17 deg 53 min N
060 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 10 kt
E. 219 deg 096 nm
F. 228 deg 043 kt
G. 191 deg 033 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb

[LAwxrgal]

Regarding Katrina references, people in my office are so shell shocked that they keep saying how much Chris looks like Katrina. Right now, I think that a blob would remind them of Katrina. Fortunately, my wife told them she listens to no one but me, and I get the good info from folks here and told her its not close.

The problem is because of last year so many people are on edge.

[drezee]

Storm CHRIS: Observed By AF #303
Storm #03 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 53KT (61.0mph 98.2km/h) In SE Quadrant At 18:47:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 47.7KT (54.9mph 88.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, August 01, 2006 4:41:00 PM (Tue, 1 Aug 2006 20:41:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 17° 53' N 060° 52' W (17.9°N 60.9°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 10 KT (11.5MPH 18.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 096nm (110.4miles) From Center At Bearing 219°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 043KT (49.45mph 79.6km/h) From 228°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 033nm (37.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 191°
Minimum pressure: 1003mb (29.62in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 4nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds


Center temp up to 30C that is bad news!!!!!!!!

[duris]

The afternoon New Orleans AFD mentions that over the weekend, deeper moisture returns "AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS MOVES WEST AND TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO". What might that mean for the track? Is that one of the ULL's mentioned as possibly moving in tandem with the track?

[Rainband]

If the track keeps shifting less the Land masses of the Caribbean will make this storm a memory.

[Damar91]

Just one question. Does it getting stronger quicker mean that Chris may stay more north west than west? Thanks.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 012108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/20:41:00Z
B. 17 deg 53 min N
060 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 10 kt
E. 219 deg 096 nm
F. 228 deg 043 kt
G. 191 deg 033 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C/ 298 m
J. 30 C/ 459 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 13
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

6C temperature difference and 1003mb. Looks like rapid organization.

[NONAME]

45Mph-60mph that a big increase in about 2 hours between Recon observations.

[Blown Away]

Each advisory the track gets pushed further and further S.

[drezee]

Center temp up to 30C that is bad news!!!!!!!!

[max]

45Mph-60mph that a big increase in about 2 hours between Recon observations.

I know. I still can't believe it! This brings back horrible memories when I watch Hurricane Wilma but I don't think it will go that fast.

I hope not.

[WindRunner]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 012108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/20:41:00Z
B. 17 deg 53 min N
  060 deg 52 min W
C. NA  mb NA   m
D. 10  kt
E. 219 deg 096 nm
F. 228 deg 043 kt
G. 191 deg 033 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I.  24 C/ 298  m
J.  30 C/ 459  m
K.  19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 4  nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS        OB 13
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.



This VDM brings out several interesting points.

1. Pressure is at 1003mb, 4mb lower than 90min ago.

2. Eye/center is 6C warmer than just outside of center. This means the storm is prime for strengthening. A similar temp gradient was observed in Alberto about 12 hours prior to his strengthening.

3. The visually estimated winds are 10kts. We all know this is crap, and thus demonstrates why the NHC doesn't use them.

EDIT: and now I see how slow I type . . . points 1 & 2 are already mentioned . . .

[duris]

Regarding Katrina references, people in my office are so shell shocked that they keep saying how much Chris looks like Katrina. Right now, I think that a blob would remind them of Katrina. Fortunately, my wife told them she listens to no one but me, and I get the good info from folks here and told her its not close.

The problem is because of last year so many people are on edge.

No doubt. If this comes close (I know, its early), won't feel bad if my sheet rock guys don't show this week. Of course, I'm supposed to be on vacation in Destin next week as well. We tried avoiding vacation after July for this reason, but didn't work out. Oh well.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope Chris isn't undergoing any RI.