Tropical Storm Chris

[WindRunner]

[gulfcoastdave]

People need to remember one things about storms, you can not predict what they will do. Chris has been written off to die and look at it now. If the system gets in the gulf , we all need to watch it from the big bend to say LA/MS border. The picture will get clearer by weekend.

[ROCK]

Again I come home from work and we have a strong named TS. Maybe I should stay home from work and Chris will weaken. Talk about a wild ride this one is giving us. You island 2kers hunker down.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

People need to remember one things about storms, you can not predict what they will do. Chris has been written off to die and look at it now. If the system gets in the gulf , we all need to watch it from the big bend to say LA/MS border. The picture will get clearer by weekend.

I think it will need to watched from the Big Bend all the way to Brownsville. With such a strong ridge to the north, this system will likely be more of a central/western Gulf threat.

[Ivanhater]

People need to remember one things about storms, you can not predict what they will do. Chris has been written off to die and look at it now. If the system gets in the gulf , we all need to watch it from the big bend to say LA/MS border. The picture will get clearer by weekend.

I think it will need to watched from the Big Bend all the way to Brownsville. With such a strong ridge to the north, this system will likely be more of a central/western Gulf threat.

Wow, really? Have any storms made that long of a journey that far west? I have not checked but I would think that would be a rare occurrence

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012219
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 34 KNHC
2207. 1855N 06152W 00304 0037 071 025 232 224 026 00352 0000000000
2208 1854N 06151W 00305 0037 072 024 232 226 025 00352 0000000000
2208. 1853N 06150W 00305 0036 073 027 232 226 027 00351 0000000000
2209 1851N 06148W 00304 0035 071 026 234 228 027 00350 0000000000
2209. 1850N 06147W 00306 0035 070 025 234 226 025 00352 0000000000
2210 1849N 06146W 00304 0034 067 024 236 228 024 00349 0000000000
2210. 1848N 06144W 00306 0034 064 024 236 228 025 00350 0000000000
2211 1847N 06143W 00302 0034 070 028 230 230 028 00346 0000000000
2211. 1846N 06142W 00307 0032 073 028 234 228 028 00350 0000000000
2212 1844N 06140W 00304 0032 072 028 236 222 029 00347 0000000000
2212. 1843N 06139W 00305 0031 072 029 234 222 029 00346 0000000000
2213 1842N 06138W 00305 0030 075 029 234 222 029 00345 0000000000
2213. 1841N 06136W 00305 0029 075 030 236 216 030 00344 0000000000
2214 1840N 06135W 00305 0027 076 031 234 224 031 00342 0000000000
2214. 1839N 06134W 00305 0026 074 030 232 224 031 00342 0000000000
2215 1838N 06132W 00305 0026 073 030 230 220 031 00342 0000000000
2215. 1837N 06131W 00305 0025 070 030 232 216 030 00340 0000000000
2216 1836N 06130W 00305 0024 069 031 230 220 031 00339 0000000000
2216. 1835N 06128W 00305 0024 067 031 230 222 031 00339 0000000000
2217 1834N 06127W 00305 0022 069 032 230 222 033 00337 0000000000

[WindRunner]

[WindRunner]

Should be passing through the center either at the end of this next set or the beginning of the next one.

[Ivanhater]

Here is a historical map...would be rare to even go in the gulf but just crazy to make it to the western gulf, but who knows..

[CrazyC83]

I think this will strengthen much faster and more intensely than the NHC thinks...I'm going to write a prediction shortly. It will make your head shake.

[AnnularCane]

People need to remember one things about storms, you can not predict what they will do. Chris has been written off to die and look at it now. If the system gets in the gulf , we all need to watch it from the big bend to say LA/MS border. The picture will get clearer by weekend.

I think it will need to watched from the Big Bend all the way to Brownsville. With such a strong ridge to the north, this system will likely be more of a central/western Gulf threat.

Wow, really? Have any storms made that long of a journey that far west? I have not checked but I would think that would be a rare occurrence

The 1900 Galveston 'cane did that, didn't it? I can't think of too many other examples though.

[mtm4319]

Well, the "upper" red line is gone, so... is there no center anymore?

[AnnularCane]

I think this will strengthen much faster and more intensely than the NHC thinks...I'm going to write a prediction shortly. It will make your head shake.

And probably the rest of our bodies too!

[Stratosphere747]

Until the G-IV missions are flown. The track is iffy, IMO....

[tropicsgal05]

Jason Kelly of WJHG TV Panama City says if Chris makes it into the gulf of mexico, his concern is the water temperatures, they are 86 and 87 degrees.

[WmE]

Crazy I'm curious!

[ronjon]

I'm not completely sold on the storm moving westward through the straits yet. I found this interesting item from the HPC disc this afternoon.

MODELS AND MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MEAN TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES RUNNING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CONUS AND E-W SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM THE WEST ATLC INTO SWRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN CONTS UNTIL DAY 6 MON WHEN RIDGING BUILDS NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPS IN AN ERN TROF.

Like everything else, its all timing. While the 18Z GFS weakens the storm (which may effect its path), the model brings it much further north along the SE coast of FL. Looks like two other disturbances closely following Chris' heels.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Aquawind]

Jason Kelly of WJHG TV Panama City says if Chris makes it into the gulf of mexico, his concern is the water temperatures, they are 86 and 87 degrees.

Pretty much like everyone else..

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012229
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 35 KNHC
2217. 1833N 06125W 00305 0021 073 032 230 216 032 00337 0000000000
2218 1832N 06124W 00303 0019 067 031 226 224 033 00333 0000000000
2218. 1830N 06123W 00296 0018 066 033 228 222 034 00324 0000000000
2219 1829N 06123W 00306 0015 065 034 228 220 035 00331 0000000000
2219. 1827N 06122W 00303 0012 068 037 228 222 038 00326 0000000000
2220 1826N 06122W 00305 0011 068 041 228 220 042 00326 0000000000
2220. 1824N 06121W 00304 0008 070 040 226 218 041 00323 0000000000
2221 1823N 06121W 00307 0006 064 040 224 222 042 00323 0000000000
2221. 1821N 06120W 00302 0002 065 042 220 220 042 00315 0000000000
2222 1820N 06120W 00306 5000 063 043 222 222 044 00316 0000000000
2222. 1818N 06120W 00306 5004 058 043 222 222 043 00312 0000000000
2223 1817N 06119W 00305 5008 055 043 226 226 044 00308 0000000000
2223. 1815N 06119W 00304 5014 056 047 230 230 048 00301 0000000000
2224 1814N 06118W 00306 5021 056 049 234 234 050 00296 0000000000
2224. 1812N 06118W 00302 5030 055 047 236 236 049 00283 0000000000
2225 1811N 06117W 00308 5039 056 049 234 234 052 00279 0000000000
2225. 1809N 06116W 00305 5052 062 047 240 240 049 00263 0000000000
2226 1808N 06115W 00355 5062 068 037 248 244 041 00303 0000000000
2226. 1807N 06114W 00367 5068 073 025 248 248 033 00310 0000000000
2227 1806N 06114W 00364 5068 044 002 242 242 008 00306 0000000000

[tgenius]

Until the G-IV missions are flown. The track is iffy, IMO....

how are the Gulfstream IV missions different then the Recon flights? No Dropsondes?