Tropical Storm Chris

[Trugunzn]

JB is callin for a cat 4/5 ?

[AnnularCane]

I am getting confused. I keep hearing that Chris is weakening, but he looks OK to me. I've even looked at several loops and I still don't see anything obviously wrong.

[Grease Monkey]

why would this be suprising?

[senorpepr]

The NOAA9 0403A is also flying around CHris so there are right now two planes.

The flight number is just NOAA9. 0403A means that this is the fourth mission of the third Atlantic storm.

[miamicanes177]

JB is callin for a cat 4/5 ?

sounds about right

[cycloneye]

The NOAA9 0403A is also flying around CHris so there are right now two planes.

The flight number is just NOAA9. 0403A means that this is the fourth mission of the third Atlantic storm.

Oh ok.

[f5]

You can see how the dry air is digging into it a little on it's west side.

Katrina fought dry air and look how huge and intense she had gotten

[KatDaddy]

Good thing the HPC Discussion 3-7 Forecast usually prove incorrect but this is still scary:

T.S. CHRIS MOVES INTO THE PRELIM FORECAST AREA BY DAY 4. I USED AN
EXTRAPOLATED NHC TRACK AFTER DAY 5 TO CONTINUE THE SYSTEM ON ABOUT
A 285 DEGREE HEADING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SURFACE FORECASTS FROM THE 12Z/01 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/02 GFS SHOW
FAIRLY HIGH SPREAD FOR TUE/WED DAYS 6-7 IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
BELOW THE TX/LA COASTS.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Cheezy, I find it hard to believe after the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons you still cannot understand a recon report. Please don't comment until you learn about these things.

If ur not joking, check my start date. Ive been here for 6 measely months...only 2 storms i have tracked. Isabel of 03 was the first storm ive ever tracked. Last year I had to go to TWC and weather.com to find out anything. So excuse me for wanting to understand something

[ALhurricane]

Please.




I'm looking at satelite and thunderstorm activity is still building west and northwest, wouldn't this be against the idea of it weakening? Any pro mets wanna add into my thoughts?


Storms fluctuate in intensity all the time Chris has down it several times before but only for a small few hour time frame. So can anyone assure me this is a TRUE weakening phase and not a fluctuation?

It's going through a down cycle...it's OK...it's not the end of the world.

Bottom line...pressure is up some and the satellite appearance is ragged comapred to earlier. There is an outlfow boundry headed out of the circulation...which is probably why the pressure is up (which also explains the convection on the NW side). It is a fluctuation.

I think I am going to need to be on some sort of medication after this season. If the highs and lows of this board are extreme right now when Chris is a TS, I can't imagine the rest of the season.

Let us take this time to a deep breathe in....

and a deep breathe out....

Ahhh....much better. Bottom line, Chris is neither dying or exploding at this time.

[Grease Monkey]

Dry air is in it's way and I guess you can say the shear is shoving it in chris's face.

[flhurricaneguy]

just wait a few hours and see what happens around 4 or 5 yesterday it started to bomb. lets just see.

[wxmann_91]

I am getting confused. I keep hearing that Chris is weakening, but he looks OK to me. I've even looked at several loops and I still don't see anything obviously wrong.

The two most important sats now are the high-resolution visible and the WV. Anything else probably won't tell you much about weakening.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

JB has it going into the central Gulf and becoming a cat4 r 5 over the loop current, and hitting texas as a major hurricane!

JB needs to friggin Relax before he scares people to death

Yes. He really should. That's quite a dramatic forecast.. I think a 'possibility of a major cane' is more appropriate.

When people here Cat 4 or Cat 5.. they tend to panic.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021906
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 16 KNHC
1854. 1913N 06531W 01525 0095 341 017 166 154 017 01661 0000000000
1855 1912N 06532W 01524 0095 344 017 166 156 018 01660 0000000000
1855. 1910N 06532W 01525 0095 348 015 166 160 016 01661 0000000000
1856 1908N 06532W 01523 0095 349 015 166 160 015 01659 0000000000
1856. 1906N 06532W 01524 0096 353 016 166 158 017 01660 0000000000
1857 1905N 06532W 01523 0095 348 017 166 158 017 01660 0000000000
1857. 1903N 06533W 01523 0095 342 017 168 154 017 01660 0000000000
1858 1901N 06533W 01523 0095 338 016 166 154 016 01659 0000000000
1858. 1859N 06533W 01525 0095 333 015 166 156 015 01660 0000000000
1859 1858N 06533W 01524 0095 331 014 166 156 015 01660 0000000000
1859. 1856N 06533W 01524 0095 332 014 166 160 015 01660 0000000000
1900 1854N 06533W 01525 0096 329 015 164 162 015 01662 0000000000
1900. 1852N 06534W 01525 0095 323 016 166 154 016 01660 0000000000
1901 1851N 06534W 01523 0094 319 016 162 162 016 01658 0000000000
1901. 1849N 06534W 01526 0094 321 017 160 160 017 01662 0000000000
1902 1847N 06534W 01522 0095 322 017 160 154 017 01657 0000000000
1902. 1845N 06534W 01525 0094 319 016 160 156 016 01661 0000000000
1903 1844N 06534W 01523 0093 318 015 146 146 017 01657 0000000000
1903. 1842N 06535W 01524 0096 302 015 158 158 016 01662 0000000000
1904 1840N 06535W 01523 0096 292 015 160 152 016 01661 0000000000

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey folks please don't hype. I don't need JB hype crude. Thanks BTW this storm looks like a 50mph ts right now, as shear and dry air are taking a toll on it.

LOL, if there was such thing as a cat 10 hurricane, I'm sure JB would be calling for this one to hit that intensity. He's almost always calling for strength way above the norm...He's been right a few time, but wrong alot of time.

[conestogo_flood]

Tornado warning ended, now I can get back to tracking Chris!

[Trugunzn]

Are they at the east side of the storm yet?

[N2DaTropics]

JB has it going into the central Gulf and becoming a cat4 r 5 over the loop current, and hitting texas as a major hurricane!

I think if it gets that intense and that strong that it'll not make it to Texas...IMO this is going to be Louisiana's problem (sorry, nothing against Cajuns), just really see this going somewhere between Lake Charles and the Mouth of the Mississippi River...

[wxmann_91]

Cheezy, I find it hard to believe after the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons you still cannot understand a recon report. Please don't comment until you learn about these things.

I've been tracking for that long and I still don't understand the recon reports. I'm just too lazy to learn it. I asked last time, it was posted, I looked at it once but I was too busy to look at it detailedly, and next time I got to the forum it was buried somewhere. The only thing I know to read is the VDM.