Tropical Storm Chris

[mascpa]

Not surprised really. Climo history seems to bear out once again. Even the strongest and highest ridge will evantually be eroded by other developing features, like UL's

Look at the difference 3 to 6 hours makes on this map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Looks like weakening to me?

I can't believe how different they look only three hours apart. The one thing this brings home to me is how little we actually know.

[The RAT]

let's wait and see where the Weather Channel sends their people, then we KNOW it won't hit there!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Joe B also says Chris could mean problems for rain plagued west Texas and New Mexico...he must think Chris will buzz right across the gulf W-WNW and plow into Texas.

[gatorcane]

Looks to me the convection still is moving NW. Do you see that? The system is definitely gaining lattitude.

We need to really watch this. Any system that is ESE of the peninsula could mean trouble. Just a little more weakness and it could be trouble.

[Grease Monkey]

Yeah I don't understand more than half the things that come from these reports.

[Scorpion]

Remember that JB also called for Rita to be the strongest hurricane ever to hit Texas.

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 021852
XXAA 52182 99279 70750 08075 99019 28056 21005 00167 26446 20506
92850 21858 20505 85579 17260 27507 70207 06839 30011 50590 07762
09517 40761 16965 11523 30970 33550 10037 25095 44356 09535 20241
52971 09550 88999 77999
31313 09608 81829
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 02
62626 SPL 2790N07510W 1843 MBL WND 20506 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 52188 99279 70750 08075 00019 28056 11951 22421 22929 22058
33850 17260 44830 15858 55791 14266 66757 11058 77745 10463 88729
09263 99706 07461 11699 06836 22690 06422 33675 06050 44635 03644
55580 01516 66568 02158 77551 03745 88535 04560 99510 06747 11488
07973 22474 08964 33460 10169 44447 11561 55416 14366 66365 22958
77357 24143 88329 28918 99303 32950 11258 42540 22231 48765 33213
49974 44178 56566
21212 00019 21005 11850 27507 22722 28010 33694 31010 44550 09505
55531 11012 66512 09020 77477 13017 88428 11020 99361 10527 11357
09527 22350 11027 33319 11035 44260 09534 55223 10038 66214 11042
77186 09054 88178 10558
31313 09608 81829
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 02
62626 SPL 2790N07510W 1843 MBL WND 20506 AEV 20604 =

Second dropsonde from the NOAA plane. Hopefully this data will go into the models, but I'm not sure exactly what it's for.

[wxmann_91]

Not surprised really. Climo history seems to bear out once again. Even the strongest and highest ridge will evantually be eroded by other developing features, like UL's

Look at the difference 3 to 6 hours makes on this map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Looks like weakening to me?

That is not the position of the ridge. It's just a steering analysis. Besides, in a day or two the ridge is suppose to weaken, but then replaced by a much stronger ridge which will drive Chris west.

[WindRunner]

*smacks ImageShack*



Should be making the turn in towards the center shortly.

[JonathanBelles]

wont they crash into each other!!

[cajungal]

I am waiting to see Bob Breck tonight and see where the VIPIR model takes Chris. IMO I think anywhere from the Beaumont area over to the Mouth of the MS river is at greatest risk. Still just playing a guessing game at this time. I did an almost perfect forecast of both Katrina and Rita in the very early stages though. But, way too early to tell. Lots can happen between now and then.

[gatorcane]

yes but it is all timing. If Chris is strengthening he will naturally move poleward and gain lattitude even more through this temporary weakness and then get pushed westard in a Bee-line like Andrew or even Betsy as the ridge builds in....

Its all timing here

[KFDM Meteorologist]

At one time we all thought that!!!

[southerngale]

Enough with the JB bashing!! Geesh...read the forum rules in the top of this forum.

The person who said that was "greatone" and now he's gone. Don't believe everything you read from just anybody anyway.

[WindRunner]

Decoded:

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 02
Time: 1800Z
Latitude: 27.9°N
Longitude: 75°W
#NAME?
Surface: 1019 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 72°F; SSW (210°) @ 6 mph
1000mb height: 548 ft; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 71°F; SSW (205°) @ 7 mph
925mb height: 2789 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 57°F; SSW (205°) @ 6 mph
850mb height: 5180 ft; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 45°F; W (275°) @ 8 mph
700mb height: 10522 ft; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 37°F; WNW (300°) @ 13 mph
500mb height: 19357 ft; Temp: 18°F; Dewpt: -3°F; E (95°) @ 20 mph
400mb height: 24967 ft; Temp: 2°F; Dewpt: -25°F; ESE (115°) @ 26 mph
300mb height: 31824 ft; Temp: -28°F; Dewpt: -37°F; E (100°) @ 43 mph
250mb height: 35925 ft; Temp: -48°F; Dewpt: -59°F; E (95°) @ 40 mph
200mb height: 40715 ft; Temp: -63°F; Dewpt: -101°F; E (95°) @ 58 mph
SPL 2790N07510W 1843 MBL WND 20506 AEV 20604 =


1019mb winds: SSW (210°) @ 6 mph
850mb winds: W (275°) @ 8 mph
722mb winds: W (280°) @ 12 mph
694mb winds: NW (310°) @ 12 mph
550mb winds: E (95°) @ 6 mph
531mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 14 mph
512mb winds: E (90°) @ 23 mph
477mb winds: SE (130°) @ 20 mph
428mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 23 mph
361mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 31 mph
357mb winds: E (95°) @ 31 mph
350mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 31 mph
319mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 40 mph
260mb winds: E (95°) @ 39 mph
223mb winds: E (100°) @ 44 mph
214mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 48 mph
186mb winds: E (90°) @ 62 mph
178mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 67 mph

The plane is still enroute, this observation is about 350mi due east of Melbourne, but closer than the last drop.

And no they won't crash. The USAF plane is flying at about 5,000 feet, whereas the NOAA plane is flying over 40,000 feet up.

>psst . . . discussion thread!

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ULL developing is changing the setup. We just can't build a mathematical model that can contemplate all of subleties of the fluid dynamics at play here. That's what makes it interesting I guess. At this point, anyone calling for a CAT-anything is hyping including JB. That is not to say folks closest to it don't need to be prepared.

[jasons2k]

Remember that JB also called for Rita to be the strongest hurricane ever to hit Texas.

So did everyone else. The wed night official forecast was downright scary.

[Frank2]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

[gatorcane]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

Basically nobody knows where it is headed.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021916
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 17 KNHC
1904. 1839N 06535W 01524 0097 288 015 162 148 015 01662 0000000000
1905 1837N 06535W 01526 0097 286 015 160 150 015 01664 0000000000
1905. 1835N 06535W 01523 0097 285 015 160 146 015 01661 0000000000
1906 1834N 06535W 01523 0097 283 015 166 146 016 01661 0000000000
1906. 1832N 06536W 01525 0097 282 015 166 142 016 01662 0000000000
1907 1830N 06536W 01525 0097 286 015 166 144 015 01663 0000000000
1907. 1829N 06536W 01522 0098 284 015 170 138 015 01661 0000000000
1908 1827N 06536W 01530 0101 284 014 170 132 014 01672 0000000000
1908. 1827N 06534W 01522 0099 275 014 170 134 014 01662 0000000000
1909 1829N 06533W 01520 0097 273 013 164 146 013 01659 0000000000
1909. 1830N 06532W 01525 0097 277 013 164 146 013 01663 0000000000
1910 1831N 06530W 01523 0097 277 012 160 150 012 01661 0000000000
1910. 1832N 06529W 01525 0097 273 012 160 150 012 01663 0000000000
1911 1834N 06528W 01523 0097 271 012 162 146 012 01661 0000000000
1911. 1835N 06527W 01525 0097 275 012 162 148 013 01663 0000000000
1912 1836N 06525W 01524 0097 274 013 160 148 013 01661 0000000000
1912. 1837N 06524W 01525 0097 274 013 160 150 014 01663 0000000000
1913 1838N 06523W 01522 0097 275 014 158 154 014 01660 0000000000
1913. 1840N 06522W 01525 0096 279 013 156 156 014 01662 0000000000
1914 1841N 06520W 01525 0094 294 015 136 136 017 01661 0000000000