Tropical Storm Chris

[Frank2]

I've been staying out of the melee here the past couple of days, but, wanted to post the above - interesting, and I have also noticed the WSW movement on the SJU radar over the past 2 or so hours...

Frank

[deltadog03]

WOW!! this board got crazy...There is nothing changing in the synoptic scale imo. The ULL is doing what most models were saying it was going to do. Yes, there is some shear from the north. That is from the incoming TUTT, which I figured if Chris didn't outrun that he would have some problems with it temp.. So, until Chris gets enough west of this TUTT then he will struggle a bit. Dry air dosn't seem to be the problem imo.

[senorpepr]

No side-bar conversations.

[jasons2k]

JB has it going into the central Gulf and becoming a cat4 r 5 over the loop current, and hitting texas as a major hurricane!

JB needs to friggin Relax before he scares people to death

Yes. He really should. That's quite a dramatic forecast.. I think a 'possibility of a major cane' is more appropriate.

When people here Cat 4 or Cat 5.. they tend to panic.

Is this a forecast or just a possibility????? I smell another JB misquote that makes everyone thinks he's crazy.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 021917
97779 19084 40185 65508 15200 27013 16158 /2552
42710
RMK AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 07

Surface: wind W at 10 knots

[WindRunner]

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 021912
XXAA 52192 99260 70749 08064 99019 28650 14006 00170 27041 12506
92855 21424 14003 85585 17857 30003 70219 08066 02007 50591 08160
16507 40761 17764 16526 30969 34959 14524 25094 44365 17021 20240
53970 13532 88999 77999
31313 09608 81845
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 03
62626 SPL 2607N07492W 1900 MBL WND 12505 AEV 20604 DLM WND 14008
019185 WL150 12506 081 =
XXBB 52198 99260 70749 08064 00019 28650 11955 23214 22901 20020
33877 19657 44850 17857 55809 15257 66792 14865 77784 14461 88762
13265 99646 03863 11637 03058 22630 02661 33605 00426 44588 01131
55581 01556 66551 04330 77506 07164 88473 11356 99438 13756 11419
15164 22351 24964 33301 34759 44204 53571 55194 52569 66178 55167
21212 00019 14006 11893 00000 22850 30003 33528 00000 44447 17510
55400 16526 66295 14525 77265 16025 88255 17524 99242 14020 11225
11527 22192 14531 33178 12539
31313 09608 81845
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 03
62626 SPL 2607N07492W 1900 MBL WND 12505 AEV 20604 DLM WND 14008
019185 WL150 12506 081 =

[senorpepr]

Drop the JB conversation. It was just greatone stirring the pot.

[sealbach]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

they have the system as an "L" by the time it reaches the tx/la coast...does that mean they think it will weaken as closes in on the coast?

[Frank2]

sealbach,

see the NWS quote in my above post - perhaps they are also referring to what our local NWS forecaster has mentioned...

Frank

[WindRunner]

No. They just started making a SW to NE pass. Should be around the center in about 30 minutes, and a sampling of the NE quad will follow.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Not surprised really. Climo history seems to bear out once again. Even the strongest and highest ridge will evantually be eroded by other developing features, like UL's

Look at the difference 3 to 6 hours makes on this map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Looks like weakening to me?

That is not the position of the ridge. It's just a steering analysis. Besides, in a day or two the ridge is suppose to weaken, but then replaced by a much stronger ridge which will drive Chris west.

True, but you can see the higher pressures reflected. I agree the expected/forecast ridge will be the real kicker

[storm4u]

I really dont think this storm is going into the gulf!! It doesnt agree with climo..
'
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... climo.html

[gatorcane]

But When???? The system is clearly gaining lattitude folks. Look where it was today and now......

[sealbach]

thanks, Frank...hopefully it will become an open wave...I don't need a hurricane!

[cheezyWXguy]

I really dont think this storm is going into the gulf!! It doesnt agree with climo..
'
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... climo.html

You cant just assume that just because storms in the past arent likey to pass through here doesnt mean it cant happen...theres a first time for anything.

[f5]

I really dont think this storm is going into the gulf!! It doesnt agree with climo..
'
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... climo.html

2005 didn't give a _ about climotology

[B'hamBlazer]

I really dont think this storm is going into the gulf!! It doesnt agree with climo..
'
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... climo.html

History, in terms of studying where storms might go, is not always very valuable. There are a number of variables which can affect the steering of these systems. Just look at that one that hit near Brownsville... that absolutely goes against the trends as well. Everything I've seen has this heading into the Gulf or even south a bit... not northward and eastward.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I really dont think this storm is going into the gulf!! It doesnt agree with climo..
'
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... climo.html

Agree...Based on these historical maps it don't seem plausable..

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I have a question. 1007mb is awfully high for a 55kt storm. Granted, environmental pressures are high...what's the highest pressure an Atlantic storm ever reached hurricane strength at?