Tropical Storm Chris

[gatorcane]

Ok folks I think it is time:




Next please

[Extremeweatherguy]

Chris still a 40mph TS at 11am.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 031434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

THE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. A
WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO
THE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ON
A 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.5N 67.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 68.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.1N 70.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 24.0N 85.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC THU AUG 03 2006

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 66.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.7N 68.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.1N 70.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...67.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

THE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. A
WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO
THE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ON
A 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.5N 67.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 68.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.1N 70.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 24.0N 85.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HouTXmetro]

BUH-Bye Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large
With this new track I really hope Chris does not re-develop or else TX is in a whole lot of trouble!

[Brent]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

Don't be so quick to say goodbye. Read the bolded area again.

[bkdelong]

As a newbie, I'm wondering what's the minimum storm wind-speed Chris needs for it to limp into the Gulf and then refire as so many storms exploded after passing over FL/Carribbean and into Gulf last year.

[dwg71]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

This bold is more likely at the moment

[wxman57]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

Don't be so quick to say goodbye. Read the bolded area again.

And I COULD win the lottery...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

Don't be so quick to say goodbye. Read the bolded area again.

And I COULD win the lottery...

yeah, you could. But I think the chance of Chris re-generating is probably higher than you winning the lottery right now.

[Air Force Met]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

Don't be so quick to say goodbye. Read the bolded area again.

YOu are by far Chris' biggest fan.

[Windspeed]

Not sure why anyone would write Chris off just yet. We still have a vigorous surface circulation. Though mid-level (600-400mb) shear decapitated the system during the past 18 hours, upper-level (300-200mb) shear is not entirely unfavorable. If the mid-level shear relaxes, there may be just enough low level dynamics to support regeneration of convection over the low level circulation during the next 24 hours. The latest shear map shows a weaking of mid-level flow from 20kts to 10kts. Though the damage has been done, we are still dealing with an organized surface circulation. The question is will this circulation open up? Well yes, that is possible if the system goes without convection long enough to allow pressures to reach background levels. But keep in mind this is still an organized system versus say a surface trough or high amplitude wave that formed Rita and Katrina in somewhat similiar geographic locations last year. We may only have a tropical depression this afternoon, and the surface circulation may even open up, but it still has to be monitored closely as it moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. Best scenario is that the surface pressures continue to rise and meet background levels and this thing opens up and completely falls apart and, or moves over Cuba long enough to completely dissipate. The Gulf of Mexico could be quite favorable in the mid and upper levels early next week to bring Chris back from near death if it doesn't dissipate entirely.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

Don't be so quick to say goodbye. Read the bolded area again.

YOu are by far Chris' biggest fan.

He needs someone to be supportive of his crippled self.

[Brent]

Goodbye.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.

Don't be so quick to say goodbye. Read the bolded area again.

YOu are by far Chris' biggest fan.

He needs someone to be supportive of his crippled self.

!!!

[PTrackerLA]

I don't like the new track either. Let's hope Chris continues to fizzle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't like the new track either. Let's hope Chris continues to fizzle.

yeah, at this point even a "remnant" of Chris entering the GOM could be dangerous (especially if it hit the Loop current).

[HouTXmetro]

convection on the SE side is showing signs of life...

[dwg71]

I don't like the new track either. Let's hope Chris continues to fizzle.

Xtrap the current path and your looking at extreme south Texas. NHC said they left it as a depression only as a precaution. We cant let our guard down, but I don't believe this is the Cat 4 or 5 that JB was predicting yesterday.