Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!
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The NHC was wise in not degrading Chris too soon maybe?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
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Does it look like he's getting closer and closer to the moist air or is that just the shear from the north that can rip him apart?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
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dixiebreeze wrote:B'hamBlazer wrote:Increased convection would seem to correlate with what recon is finding with increasing winds.
It would seem so. Maybe the shear is not as high as they thought. Plus, the "favorable" area isn't all that distant. Chris is a tough cookie.
Yeah, AFM said the favorable area is around 68-70 deg Longitude. He indicated that shear drops to 5 kts in a COL area there. If it doesn't refire in the next 24-36 hrs, it might never but the LLC is still strongly intact & has some TS firing on the SE side.
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URNT12 KNHC 032205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/21:50:00Z
B. 20 deg 37 min N
068 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 49 deg 028 nm
F. 144 deg 043 kt
G. 048 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1011 mb
I. 22 C/ 335 m
J. 24 C/ 337 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 21:42:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/21:50:00Z
B. 20 deg 37 min N
068 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 49 deg 028 nm
F. 144 deg 043 kt
G. 048 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1011 mb
I. 22 C/ 335 m
J. 24 C/ 337 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 21:42:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;
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