Tropical Storm Chris

Extremeweatherguy · #3761 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:06 pm

Truly it is just WAY too early to try and guess where Chris may go 6-7 days out. At this point I think we should just say anywhere from north Mexico to the TX/LA border needs to stay alert.

#3762 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:07 pm

jhamps10, Im thinking the same thing and have so the past couple of days. I guess because of Rita and what she did.

ROCK · #3763 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:07 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I have been hearing about a CF in the local Houston news that should be in northern TX by Sun/Mon. Could this help weaken the ridge in the western Gulf?

needs to gain some lat and miss Cuba for sure. Depends on the ridge position and Chris's organization after getting in the GOM. Then you got the almighty shear to think about.....

my head hurts....

Trugunzn · #3764 Postby **Trugunzn** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:09 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Remember Hurricane rita was in the exact same spot as chris and was forcasted to hit northern cuba then the tren started north:

Anything can happen, u saw what happened to Ritas track

jhamps10 · #3765 Postby **jhamps10** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:11 pm

I'm trying to remember did rita make a landfall other than the one in Texas/Louisana?

Because right now Chris is close to where rita took a track, another reason that Houston metro could be in a higher risk, but still WAY,WAY too far out to pinpoint a spot. I got to agree with EWG that all of the texas coast, and parts of La, and northern Mexico too.

Edit, I see that trungtzen has answered my question somewhat by providing the model tracks from rita.

Innotech · #3766 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:12 pm

on sat, its almost as though the shear ripped away CHris' covering, but he yanked it right back. all the moisture that was shed is being drawn right back in.

#3767 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:12 pm

Windy wrote:It's fun & all to try to guess where it'll be 6 days from now and point to Texas or Mexico or whereever, but let's be honest -- nobody really knows where it'll be then, if it even exists. Calling out citynames right now is just -removed-.

I agree Windy. I dunno if I'd label all of them W-casting (altho it's pretty apparent the ones who are...) but it is premature to be naming cities.

I think the chances of Chris sticking around are ~50/50. I think it has a decent chance, but I'm not convinced it'll survive this shear. Those clouds to the NE are racing in pretty fast and it looks like more may be on the way. I think Chris needs to pick it up (in forward speed) to have a real shot. That said, as we all know, sometimes a storm will defy all odds and surprise us.

I would also like to point out that YES all the models show the ridge building next week in TX but that's still ~6 days away. A lot can happen between now and then. Let's not forget the lessons of past storms (Charley, even Rita) so quickly. More often than not, the final landfall location comes down to the very final hours.

saints63213 · #3768 Postby **saints63213** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:14 pm

is it just me or does it seem like forward speed has picked up a bite as well.

Scorpion · #3769 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:15 pm

If true, that would be great news for Chris.

#3770 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:16 pm

I just reread my post and I said "I think" about 20 times. Maybe it'll be good for a snicker. That's a sign I need to go to bed early tonight :wink:

ROCK · #3771 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:18 pm

Rita was more north and well established once entering the GOM LPC. That said, the ridge was moving to the east as she was moved along the edge the ridge (poleward). Chris is farther south somewhat lacking organization skills ATTM...and from what I have seen from the globals there is a really big high building early next week.

Trugunzn · #3772 Postby **Trugunzn** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:18 pm

looks like convection now over center. Now it needs to wrap it all around

#3773 Postby **wx247** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:20 pm

Center looks to be NW of convection at least to me...

#3774 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:21 pm

It's still all in the SE quad.

miamicanes177 · #3775 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:21 pm

Raw T3.4

Extremeweatherguy · #3776 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:22 pm

According to KFDM on page 18, the system looks to be getting into an area of less shear:

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:What i'm seeing happen on water vapor it's getting farther away from the upper low.

Thats good for the storm right, KFDM?

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Yes, means less shear.

Scorpion · #3777 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:23 pm

Miamicanes can you show us where you are getting those T numbers?

miamicanes177 · #3778 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:25 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

rockyman · #3779 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:25 pm

Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

ROCK · #3780 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:25 pm

Yep, looks to me Chris is out racing the shear from the NE but still in it given the convection in the SE quad.

Tropical Storm Chris

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