Tropical Storm Chris

[Sanibel]

If I'm reading the loops correctly Chris looks to be approaching a shear convergence zone between two different directions of shear.

I'd still be watching for a reconvective burst as long as it still has spin.

But it also looks to be headed for a crash and burn onto Cuba.

Chris could be the air-clearer for the next storm.

[Frank2]

Looking at the above photo (and the visibile loop) is does seem that the circulation is slowly (or not so slowly) winding down - if it passed over us right now (down here in South Florida), we'd hardly notice it...

[miamicanes177]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

*edited by staff to make the image a link

*please do not post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each post

[Sanibel]

Looking at the above photo (and the visibile loop) is does seem that the circulation is slowly (or not so slowly) winding down - if it passed over us right now (down here in South Florida), we'd hardly notice it...

If that happens you'll see the spiral contort and deconform due to it being weaker than the forces around it.

[AJC3]

If I'm reading the loops correctly Chris looks to be approaching a shear convergence zone between two different directions of shear.

I'd still be watching for a reconvective burst as long as it still has spin.

But it also looks to be headed for a crash and burn onto Cuba.

Chris could be the air-clearer for the next storm.

This is what is referred to as a deformation zone, the center of which is called a 'col' point. The col point, or "col" for short, is an area of lower shear relative to what's going on all around it. Just how large this area of a low-shear becomes can vary greatly - in this case, it looks like it's pretty small to begin with...and getting smaller.

Here's a rough idealized schematic. Since I couldn't find one online after a 60-second search, you'll have to settle for my "stellar" artistic stylings.
In reality, the upper lows aren't usually symmetric.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071/Col.jpg

Chris has been consistently lagging behind this area, and as a result, has been subjected to north or NW shear

[miamicanes177]

:::::GFDL TAKING THIS TO A 70KT HURRICANE:::::

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's amazing that nearly every model re-strengthens Chris.

[Portastorm]

It's amazing that nearly every model re-strengthens Chris.

What could they possibly be seeing? Via satellite, this system looks like it needs last rites.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL is hilarious when it comes to intensity.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's amazing that nearly every model re-strengthens Chris.

What could they possibly be seeing? Via satellite, this system looks like it needs last rites.

I agree. The one thing that concerns me though is that every model correctly predicted Chris' weakening, so I wonder if they will be right again?

[Innotech]

dont be so quick to write it off even yet. Its about to outrun the strongest shear and still firing convection off to the SE. Its still spinning and astill fighting. It needs to go just a bit further to clear Hispaniola altogether and is still heading NW. In other words do NOT consider this dead.

[HouTXmetro]

I think we are throwing in the towel to quick. granted he looks pathetic but here are some things to note.

1. Convection refireing on Eastern sides
2. Chris is trakcking slightly north of the forecast points increasing the likely hood of a straights passage and less weakening.
3. Most models intensifies Chris
4. Conditions are still forecasted to improve

[Innotech]

I think we are throwing in the towel to quick. granted he looks pathetic but here are some things to note.

1. Convection refireing on Eastern sides
2. Chris is trakcking slightly north of the forecast points increasing the likely hood of a straights passage and less weakening.
3. Most models intensifies Chris
4. Conditions are still forecasted to improve

precisely.

[Normandy]

^^ Its done.
Look at a WV Loop and you could come to that conclusion.

[miamicanes177]

If this is moving due west like the NHC says then I need to get glasses.

[cajungal]

I would not write off Chris yet. He is a fighter. I remember when what became Katrina was totally ripped apart and everyone wrote her off. And she came back with a HUGE bang. Remember Lili? The same thing happened. She fell apart and everyone wrote her off. Once she got in the gulf she exploded in a powerful cat 4 storm.

[HouTXmetro]

^^ Its done.
Look at a WV Loop and you could come to that conclusion.

We said the same thing on the WV loop yesterday.

[HouTXmetro]

Chris is tracking well N of the points, what's happening?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

[Air Force Met]

OK...everyone REALLY want me to get you going?

[Normandy]

^^ Its done.
Look at a WV Loop and you could come to that conclusion.

We said the same thing on the WV loop yesterday.

And he has been steadily weakening since yesterday....see the trend?