Tropical Storm Chris

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x-y-no
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#4481 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:54 am

Recon took off ...

Good time for them to be heading in there with this new convective burst.
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#4482 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:55 am

441
SXXX50 KNHC 041654
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 05 KNHC
1620 1838N 06608W 05489 0318 092 013 081 117 013 05889 0000000000
1620. 1840N 06609W 05487 0319 092 014 079 121 015 05888 0000000000
1621 1842N 06611W 05487 0320 090 016 075 121 016 05890 0000000000
1621. 1844N 06613W 05488 0319 092 017 075 123 017 05889 0000000000
1622 1846N 06615W 05488 0319 092 017 077 121 017 05889 0000000000
1622. 1849N 06617W 05487 0319 093 016 077 121 017 05889 0000000000
1623 1851N 06619W 05488 0319 091 017 081 115 017 05889 0000000000
1623. 1853N 06621W 05488 0319 088 018 081 115 018 05889 0000000000
1624 1855N 06623W 05489 0320 094 017 081 117 018 05891 0000000000
1624. 1857N 06625W 05487 0321 093 017 081 119 017 05890 0000000000
1625 1859N 06627W 05488 0322 091 017 081 123 017 05892 0000000000
1625. 1901N 06628W 05488 0322 085 017 075 127 017 05892 0000000000
1626 1903N 06630W 05488 0323 077 018 075 131 018 05893 0000000000
1626. 1905N 06632W 05488 0323 077 018 075 143 019 05893 0000000000
1627 1908N 06634W 05488 0323 077 019 075 161 019 05893 0000000000
1627. 1910N 06636W 05487 0324 075 018 075 159 019 05894 0000000000
1628 1912N 06638W 05488 0324 077 017 075 133 017 05895 0000000000
1628. 1914N 06640W 05488 0324 077 017 075 149 017 05894 0000000000
1629 1916N 06642W 05488 0324 074 018 075 185 018 05894 0000000000
1629. 1918N 06643W 05488 0326 075 017 075 191 017 05896 0000000000
;
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#4483 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:55 am

theres a red spot to the south on:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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#4484 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:55 am

Yes,let's see how strong the winds are in that convection.
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#4485 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:57 am

You can really see a difference between the shear on the east and west sides of this thing.
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#4486 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:58 am

438
SXXX50 KNHC 041655
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 06 KNHC
1630 1920N 06645W 05488 0326 074 017 075 195 017 05895 0000000000
1630. 1922N 06647W 05488 0327 075 016 077 187 016 05897 0000000000
1631 1924N 06649W 05488 0327 077 016 077 195 017 05897 0000000000
1631. 1926N 06651W 05488 0326 076 016 079 195 017 05895 0000000000
1632 1928N 06653W 05487 0327 079 017 079 193 017 05896 0000000000
1632. 1930N 06655W 05489 0326 081 017 077 195 017 05897 0000000000
1633 1933N 06657W 05487 0326 081 016 075 195 017 05895 0000000000
1633. 1935N 06659W 05489 0327 081 016 075 197 016 05898 0000000000
1634 1937N 06701W 05487 0327 080 017 075 199 017 05897 0000000000
1634. 1939N 06702W 05488 0326 080 017 075 201 018 05896 0000000000
1635 1941N 06704W 05488 0326 080 018 077 217 018 05896 0000000000
1635. 1943N 06706W 05488 0326 076 018 075 203 018 05896 0000000000
1636 1945N 06708W 05487 0326 074 017 075 213 018 05895 0000000000
1636. 1947N 06710W 05489 0327 076 016 075 207 017 05898 0000000000
1637 1949N 06712W 05487 0327 079 016 079 221 016 05897 0000000000
1637. 1951N 06714W 05488 0328 082 016 077 223 017 05897 0000000000
1638 1953N 06716W 05488 0328 081 017 075 225 018 05898 0000000000
1638. 1955N 06718W 05488 0329 076 018 079 191 019 05898 0000000000
1639 1958N 06719W 05489 0327 077 016 077 165 017 05897 0000000000
1639. 2000N 06721W 05488 0327 077 017 077 165 018 05896 0000000000
;
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#4487 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:58 am

My prediction is that it has maintained its intensity at 35mph and not weakened.
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#4488 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:59 am

The reason that the obs are coming so quickly now is that they were somehow delayed from showing up...the obs ending at 1629 and 1639 UTC just showed up, so I'm guessing were about to get the ones ending at 1649 UTC.
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#4489 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:59 am

OK, my guess is 28mph surface
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#4490 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:00 pm

932
SXXX50 KNHC 041658
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
1640 2002N 06723W 05487 0326 075 018 077 171 019 05895 0000000000
1640. 2004N 06725W 05489 0326 076 017 075 165 018 05897 0000000000
1641 2006N 06727W 05488 0327 078 018 079 127 018 05896 0000000000
1641. 2008N 06729W 05488 0325 080 018 077 145 018 05894 0000000000
1642 2010N 06731W 05488 0328 078 018 077 151 018 05897 0000000000
1642. 2012N 06733W 05487 0328 075 018 07;gVVfV
1643 2014N 06735W 05488 0327 075 017 079 161 017 05897 0000000000
1643. 2016N 06737W 05488 0327 073 017 077 149 017 05897 0000000000
1644 2018N 06739W 05488 0329 067 016 075 159 017 05898 0000000000
1644. 2020N 06740W 05488 0329 064 017 075 157 018 05898 0000000000
1645 2023N 06742W 05488 0329 067 018 075 153 018 05899 0000000000
1645. 2025N 06744W 05487 0329 070 015 079 145 017 05898 0000000000
1646 2027N 06746W 05488 0329 074 011 077 139 012 05898 0000000000
1646. 2029N 06748W 05484 0329 085 010 075 145 010 05895 0000000000
1647 2031N 06750W 05476 0327 088 010 073 153 010 05884 0000000000
1647. 2033N 06752W 05489 0328 088 012 075 171 012 05898 0000000000
1648 2035N 06754W 05489 0329 081 013 077 161 013 05899 0000000000
1648. 2037N 06756W 05487 0329 075 013 079 199 013 05897 0000000000
1649 2039N 06758W 05488 0329 073 014 081 201 014 05899 0000000000
1649. 2041N 06759W 05488 0330 067 014 079 201 015 05899 0000000000
;
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#4491 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:01 pm

Chris is starting to look a lot better. This new convection should help to sustain or strengthen the LLC.
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#4492 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:02 pm

Sheesh right when your about to pull the plug on him... he comes back... maybe Miami will get a tropical storm watch after all! :lol:
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#4493 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:02 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
southerngale wrote:AFM, what is the main link you use to get vis and IR from GHCC? I use the link below and it only updates every 1/2 hour. I tried to find the link you posted above on here, and couldn't, only a similar one with a similar view, but it only updates every 1/2 hour.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

When trying to determine if a wave is open or closed...or if a TD is open or closed...you have to used a site that is frequent and HI-Res...and the SSD is not it. It has great overlays but when you need a high res to follow a small cloud element for 5 minute time spans with the vis...you can't do it.


Thanks! That's much better than the 1/2 hour GHCC I've been using. I never understood why everyone said it updated more often than SSD. lol :oops:

Edit: And a bonus: it loads much quicker than that dang Java with SSD.
Last edited by southerngale on Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4494 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:03 pm

219
SXXX50 KNHC 041702
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 08 KNHC
1650 2043N 06801W 05488 0330 069 014 075 169 014 05899 0000000000
1650. 2045N 06803W 05488 0331 072 014 075 165 015 05900 0000000000
1651 2047N 06805W 05488 0330 071 016 075 169 017 05900 0000000000
1651. 2049N 06808W 05487 0331 068 018 075 175 018 05900 0000000000
1652 2050N 06810W 05488 0330 067 017 077 187 017 05899 0000000000
1652. 2052N 06812W 05488 0330 069 016 081 185 016 05899 0000000000
1653 2054N 06815W 05488 0330 072 015 083 153 016 05900 0000000000
1653. 2055N 06817W 05488 0331 073 015 083 165 015 05900 0000000000
1654 2057N 06819W 05488 0331 077 015 085 191 015 05900 0000000000
1654. 2059N 06822W 05488 0331 079 015 085 209 015 05900 0000000000
1655 2100N 06824W 05488 0331 079 014 085 191 014 05901 0000000000
1655. 2102N 06826W 05487 0331 079 014 083 193 014 05900 0000000000
1656 2104N 06829W 05488 0332 081 014 081 197 014 05901 0000000000
1656. 2105N 06831W 05488 0331 079 013 081 221 013 05900 0000000000
1657 2107N 06833W 05488 0332 071 014 079 241 014 05901 0000000000
1657. 2109N 06836W 05488 0332 071 013 081 237 013 05902 0000000000
1658 2110N 06838W 05488 0332 070 012 079 227 012 05902 0000000000
1658. 2112N 06841W 05486 0331 066 012 075 245 012 05899 0000000000
1659 2114N 06843W 05488 0332 066 012 075 249 012 05901 0000000000
1659. 2115N 06845W 05487 0331 066 012 075 233 012 05899 0000000000
;
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#4495 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:04 pm

When does the next set models come out?

nvm...I remeber now
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#4496 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:05 pm

OK, question about the infrared:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

-- It looks like a boundry (I thought it was shear) moves SW through the system and as it passes the core, the convection seems to fire along the boundry as it moves SW 'through' Chris as if some convergence is taking place. What's up wit' 'dat? I don't think I've seen that before in a TC.
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#4497 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:06 pm

Yeah, I'm very curious to see what they find, with all this "popping" going on...
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#4498 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:10 pm

AFM,
Do you think Chris has separated enough from Hispaniola to lessen the effect caused by the mountains?
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#4499 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:10 pm

Stormavoider wrote:You can really see a difference between the shear on the east and west sides of this thing.


...Which means there is a lot of divergence over the area.

Also...if you look at a WV loop...tgere is a lot of upper level moisture headed for Chris. This may be another reason for the increase in convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
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#4500 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:10 pm

Caneman,

Well, someone has to be on the opposing team!

Haw,

Frank
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