Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[flhurricaneguy]

how do the keys look for this weekend?

[MiamiensisWx]

As evidenced, mid-level dry air ahead of 91L is abating somewhat, as mentioned in my previous post...

Loop

[flhurricaneguy]

i have to admit the sat pics look much more impressive especially on infared

[jasons2k]

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

I agree, but I wouldn't call this burst of convection "temporary" this time (and NOT because of Bastardi's thoughts). Overall, the system is showing signs of more permanent, slow consolidation due to a slight decrease in mid-level shear over it and some abatement of drier air. The TUTT to the north of the system has weakened, and so has shear from a nearby (now slowly weakening) ULL.

That, along with better diffluence and outflow, hints that this could be a more sustained and permanent burst and consolidation of convection and organization, enhancing the chances of slow development a bit more. See this loop to see my points. I think we may see slow development out of this one due to lingering shear; however, the synoptics still support some gradual development. Either way, it bears watching. It looks like there also MAY be a weak MLC (possibly LLC) established under the convection, but the evidence is too unclear now to make a definate call. Again, either way, bears watching.

Hey Cape Verde,

You make valid points and I don't disagree with your analysis. I won't be surprised if this does get upgraded to a TD or Debby, I just don't expect it to last. This has Chris redux written all over it. If the system only lasts for 48 hours or so it'll end-up being a temporary blip on the end-of-season charts.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

I agree, but I wouldn't call this burst of convection "temporary" this time (and NOT because of Bastardi's thoughts). Overall, the system is showing signs of more permanent, slow consolidation due to a slight decrease in mid-level shear over it and some abatement of drier air. The TUTT to the north of the system has weakened, and so has shear from a nearby (now slowly weakening) ULL.

That, along with better diffluence and outflow, hints that this could be a more sustained and permanent burst and consolidation of convection and organization, enhancing the chances of slow development a bit more. See this loop to see my points. I think we may see slow development out of this one due to lingering shear; however, the synoptics still support some gradual development. Either way, it bears watching. It looks like there also MAY be a weak MLC (possibly LLC) established under the convection, but the evidence is too unclear now to make a definate call. Again, either way, bears watching.

Hey Cape Verde,

You make valid points and I don't disagree with your analysis. I won't be surprised if this does get upgraded to a TD or Debby, I just don't expect it to last. This has Chris redux written all over it. If the system only lasts for 48 hours or so it'll end-up being a temporary blip on the end-of-season charts.

Well, I'm hoping hard for this to develop, because if it doesn't, there probably won't be anything to watch until the beginning of September. There is absolutely ZERO else out there but this, and I don't see anything coming off of Africa to watch either.......

[bvigal]

Here in the islands keeping close watch on this, looking at immediate weather consequences if this blows up.
"REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT." ... gets my attention!

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is a graphic to illustrate my points from my last few posts and what I see... here is where I think a weak MLC/LLC may be established in a general region...

[cycloneye]

[flhurricaneguy]

that looks great

[jasons2k]

^^ Convection not as strong as earlier though

[MiamiensisWx]

^^ Convection not as strong as earlier though

The waning of the deepest convection is likely temporary, as often is with gradually organizing systems. Therefore, we may see a gradual waning of convection, followed by a new burst later on. This often typical, especially for systems entering the eastern Caribbean and slowly organizing. Emily and Dennis from last year are good examples. It could be some mild mid-level dry air intrusion, but that may mix out a bit later on, allowing and supporting another burst of convection.

[flhurricaneguy]

^^ Convection not as strong as earlier though

true but that is typical for this time of day, it will fire back up around 3 or 4 this afternoon.

[TampaFl]

Here is a radar loop/mosaic from France-Guadelope & Martininque. 91L is in range. Click animation to activate loop.




http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html



Robert

[jasons2k]

^^ Convection not as strong as earlier though

The waning of the deepest convection is likely temporary, as often is with gradually organizing systems. Therefore, we may see a gradual waning of convection, followed by a new burst later on. This often typical, especially for systems entering the eastern Caribbean and slowly organizing. Emily and Dennis from last year are good examples. It could be some mild mid-level dry air intrusion, but that may mix out a bit later on, allowing and supporting another burst of convection.

yes, of course, my point was really more for those that seem to think the earlier burst wasn't temporary and the board suddenly went nuts. That was my original point - it will cycle up and down, and with this system most likely, ultimately down to stay. Conditions are nothing like they were for Emily and Dennis, and I expect the result to be different as well.

[ConvergenceZone]

^^ Convection not as strong as earlier though

The waning of the deepest convection is likely temporary, as often is with gradually organizing systems. Therefore, we may see a gradual waning of convection, followed by a new burst later on. This often typical, especially for systems entering the eastern Caribbean and slowly organizing. Emily and Dennis from last year are good examples. It could be some mild mid-level dry air intrusion, but that may mix out a bit later on, allowing and supporting another burst of convection.

yes, of course, my point was really more for those that seem to think the earlier burst wasn't temporary and the board suddenly went nuts. That was my original point - it will cycle up and down, and with this system most likely, ultimately down to stay. Conditions are nothing like they were for Emily and Dennis, and I expect the result to be different as well.

true, but also remember, that hurricanes sometimes have a mind of their own. How many times has a storm developed against all odds and conditions against it ? I can remember quite a few times. It happens quite often.

[flhurricaneguy]

^^ Convection not as strong as earlier though

The waning of the deepest convection is likely temporary, as often is with gradually organizing systems. Therefore, we may see a gradual waning of convection, followed by a new burst later on. This often typical, especially for systems entering the eastern Caribbean and slowly organizing. Emily and Dennis from last year are good examples. It could be some mild mid-level dry air intrusion, but that may mix out a bit later on, allowing and supporting another burst of convection.

yes, of course, my point was really more for those that seem to think the earlier burst wasn't temporary and the board suddenly went nuts. That was my original point - it will cycle up and down, and with this system most likely, ultimately down to stay. Conditions are nothing like they were for Emily and Dennis, and I expect the result to be different as well.

true, but also remember, that hurricanes sometimes have a mind of their own. How many times has a storm developed against all odds and conditions against it ? I can remember quite a few times. It happens quite often.

katrina is one of them

[TSmith274]

In cycloneye's clip, am I seeing easterly shear? I could certainly be wrong, but I could swear I see another Chris shear situation with this one... or at least the very beginnings of it. Anyone?

[Stratosphere747]

jschlitz was addressing the issue of calls being made; "this could be the first large storm of the season."

This is yet to be even classified.

[flhurricaneguy]

does anyone have a link that explains how to read recon data?

[senorpepr]

does anyone have a link that explains how to read recon data?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

...or check out the links at the bottom of http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm