Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[brunota2003]

Waiting for someone to say they think they see an eye.

I think I see an eye...ahhh...run for the hills... j/k look at those spirl bands and the big sun filled eye in the center: its got to be the most developed thing I've ever seen!!! This moment of humor brought to you by Storm2K Icons

[Damar91]

Go ahead, give it your best shot! By the way, I think I see an eye!

[Sanibel]

The central vortex is the obvious sign of a strongly drawing LLC.


I'm not trying to start any arguments or violate site rules but people who see this certain sign and say "there is no circulation" are to me people who refuse to learn. I'd also like those people to explain how a storm showing good dvorak curvature drops pressure and raises windspeed without an LLC?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/1745 UTC 13.2N 57.5W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
09/1145 UTC 12.5N 54.9W T1.0/1.0 91L

[skysummit]

The central vortex is the obvious sign of a strongly drawing LLC.


I'm not trying to start any arguments or violate site rules but people who see this certain sign and say "there is no circulation" are to me people who refuse to learn.

I don't think anyone is saying "there is no circulation"...there's obviously a circulation that's clearly visible on sat imagery. What they are saying is there is no closed low level circulation. Recon has not found anything to verify otherwise. Comments saying "this is a depression" is just inaccurate.

[Lowpressure]

The central vortex is the obvious sign of a strongly drawing LLC.


I'm not trying to start any arguments or violate site rules but people who see this certain sign and say "there is no circulation" are to me people who refuse to learn.

I think the bigger issue here that we have learned that visible sat can be deceiving. Waiting for recon confirmation here. I see what you are referring to and tend to agree, but with a bird right there- recon takes precedence.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see the convection falling apart near the center which makes for a very strong MLC. But I also see some inflow on the eastern and southwestern side. Which the low clouds are moving counterclockwise. Which would be a strong sign of a LLC. But the recon still has not found it at the surface.

[ALhurricane]

The central vortex is the obvious sign of a strongly drawing LLC.


I'm not trying to start any arguments or violate site rules but people who see this certain sign and say "there is no circulation" are to me people who refuse to learn.

Well the bottom line is that recon has not yet found any evidence of a LLC. That is what counts at this point.

[brunota2003]

The central vortex is the obvious sign of a strongly drawing LLC.


I'm not trying to start any arguments or violate site rules but people who see this certain sign and say "there is no circulation" are to me people who refuse to learn.

I'm going to disagree, the people who are saying there is no LLC are going by what recon is finding...so no it isnt people refusing to learn, its them going by what is actually out there, not what other people are seeing on Sat images...guess what...right now, there is NO LLC...

[docjoe]

I think I detect a wobble back to the east

docjoe

[Sanibel]

I also go by no one yet explaining a pressure drop and windspeed increase without an LLC.

Especially with such a promising dvorak.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, at least since the convection is there, once they find a low level circulation, it should blow up fairly quickly and perhaps even bypass tropical depressio status. Alot of the time there will be a LLC but no convection. We already have the convection in place, so once they classify it, they might bypass the depression stage alltogether.

[Thunder44]

355
WHXX01 KWBC 091852
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060809 1800 060810 0600 060810 1800 060811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 59.7W 14.1N 62.6W 14.7N 65.1W 15.4N 67.7W
BAMM 13.6N 59.7W 13.8N 63.2W 14.3N 66.5W 14.8N 69.6W
A98E 13.6N 59.7W 14.0N 64.8W 14.2N 69.2W 14.2N 72.8W
LBAR 13.6N 59.7W 14.1N 63.9W 15.1N 67.9W 16.1N 71.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060811 1800 060812 1800 060813 1800 060814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.3W 18.3N 75.2W 20.6N 80.0W 22.0N 83.8W
BAMM 15.4N 72.5W 16.2N 78.0W 17.2N 83.7W 18.2N 89.4W
A98E 14.0N 75.4W 14.3N 79.5W 14.9N 83.5W 16.1N 88.4W
LBAR 17.3N 74.9W 20.0N 79.9W 19.3N 84.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 68KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 54KTS 68KTS 75KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 27KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

18z models. They are still calling it a "Disturbance"

[ALhurricane]

I also go by no one yet explaining a pressure drop and windspeed increase without an LLC.

Especially with such a promising dvorak.

You get pressure drops and wind increases with a sfc trough (wave axis) especially if there is convection present. It does not mean there has to be a LLC.

[jasons2k]

I'll just remind you that Chris had some very promising Dvorak numbers too but in the grand scheme didn't mean too much.

[skysummit]

Wow....SHIPS up to 82kts now.

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

something to get the kids excited

SHIFOR makes this a major hurricane in 5 days

[WindRunner]

Maybe still a disturbance . . . but now a 30kt one, FWIW.

[HURAKAN]

Moving at 31 mph, that's fast!!!