Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Let's just hope that high doesn't end up being a little further east. That would not be good news for the Gulf.wxman57 wrote:To give you an idea where it may eventually go, here's the 700-400mb mean flow for 18Z Monday. Now I think it could already be over the Yucatan by then and moving W-WSW, but I put an X where the models are generally placing it at 18Z Monday. Note the strong ridge over the Gulf. That should keep it on a westerly track.
Latest satellites indicates some weakening of the MLC as convection is moving away to the northwest and west.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Weatherfreak14
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Seems like we could see some kind of variation of 2001's TS Chantal, whose low level circulation got zipped along by the SAL (and SHIPS overforecast by 40 knots at one point... as noted in the AMS article on the SAL a couple of years ago).
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- wxman57
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:which may be a good sign that this is starting to organize.Trugunzn wrote:It starting to lose convection but outflow has really improved!
Heaviest convection is now 150 miles NW of the MLC and moving away, not necessarily a sign of increasing organization.
91L appears to be just teasing you this afternoon. It'll probably look a lot weaker tomorrow.
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Really you went more low level inflow where the lower level clouds are moving into the system. Outflow cloud mean that the convection is falling apart. Heck the next recon is tomarrow, in if this doe's not slow down its going to be very hard at the speed its going to pick out a LLC at the surface.
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- LSU2001
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I like the looks of that big H sitting right over Louisiana. I hope it stays parked there until about November (though I know it won't). We don't want anything that looks like a storm in the gulf this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tim
Tim
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hybridstorm_November2001
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- SouthFloridawx
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- ConvergenceZone
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I love it went people write storms off, becausewhen one finally forms they suddenly comeback. 

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Extremeweatherguy
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