Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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Normandy
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#441 Postby Normandy » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:24 pm

^IF a Cat 5 forms and loses its eye people will say NEXT!
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Extremeweatherguy
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#442 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:To give you an idea where it may eventually go, here's the 700-400mb mean flow for 18Z Monday. Now I think it could already be over the Yucatan by then and moving W-WSW, but I put an X where the models are generally placing it at 18Z Monday. Note the strong ridge over the Gulf. That should keep it on a westerly track.

Latest satellites indicates some weakening of the MLC as convection is moving away to the northwest and west.

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Let's just hope that high doesn't end up being a little further east. That would not be good news for the Gulf.
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Trugunzn
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#443 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:25 pm

It starting to lose convection but outflow has really improved!
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Extremeweatherguy
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#444 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:27 pm

Trugunzn wrote:It starting to lose convection but outflow has really improved!
which may be a good sign that this is starting to organize.
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#445 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:27 pm

Yea I agree, the outflow from this storm is really shaping up alot. You can see some spin action now, but now it looks the storms are moving off the circulation
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#446 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:28 pm

Seems like we could see some kind of variation of 2001's TS Chantal, whose low level circulation got zipped along by the SAL (and SHIPS overforecast by 40 knots at one point... as noted in the AMS article on the SAL a couple of years ago).
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wxman57
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#447 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:33 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:It starting to lose convection but outflow has really improved!
which may be a good sign that this is starting to organize.


Heaviest convection is now 150 miles NW of the MLC and moving away, not necessarily a sign of increasing organization.

91L appears to be just teasing you this afternoon. It'll probably look a lot weaker tomorrow.
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#448 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:33 pm

Really you went more low level inflow where the lower level clouds are moving into the system. Outflow cloud mean that the convection is falling apart. Heck the next recon is tomarrow, in if this doe's not slow down its going to be very hard at the speed its going to pick out a LLC at the surface.
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LSU2001
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#449 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:34 pm

I like the looks of that big H sitting right over Louisiana. I hope it stays parked there until about November (though I know it won't). We don't want anything that looks like a storm in the gulf this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tim
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#450 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:35 pm

I think we can ALL agree on that :bday:
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Derek Ortt

#451 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:37 pm

that MLC is dead

must reform a new center now
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#452 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:39 pm

might be ready to shoot an outflow boundary out of the convection
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Trugunzn
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#453 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:39 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:might be ready to shoot an outflow boundary out of the convection



Bad news for the system?
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#454 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:40 pm

it it does shoot out, it means... NEXT
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#455 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:45 pm

Cool new model plots from SFWMD

Image
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#456 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:46 pm

hehe I Noticed that the amount of people on the board have sharply dropped...I don't blame them though. They will be back in September though. Let's bring on September!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#457 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:47 pm

I love it went people write storms off, becausewhen one finally forms they suddenly comeback. :)
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#458 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:49 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I love it went people write storms off, becausewhen one finally forms they suddenly comeback. :)
Exactly. I think Chris was a good example of that. :)
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Trugunzn
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#459 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:50 pm

101 people early and now 21
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flhurricaneguy
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#460 Postby flhurricaneguy » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:50 pm

The have been through 5 storms and they were all in september and 1 in october. so i am nto ready to write off anything
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